Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 261441
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1040 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

...VALID 15Z TUE APR 26 2016 - 12Z WED APR 27 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NNW PPF 20 SSW MHK 20 SW BIE AFK 30 SSW LWD 20 WNW SUS
30 ENE DYR 25 E NQA 35 NW SRC 15 WSW GGG 20 ENE CLL GTU 20 E 7F9
20 NW GLE 20 WSW RVS 10 NNW PPF.


SOUTHERN PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS ARE EXPECTED, PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT, FROM EASTERN TX/OK INTO AR AS A STRONG AND INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  COOLING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-LEVELS
INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE WRN GULF AND STRONG
INSTABILITY RESULTING IN A RAPID BREAKOUT OF CONVECTION NEAR ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/DRY LINE ONCE CIN WEAKENS MAINLY AFTER 16Z
PER RECENT RAP FORECASTS.  THE MODE OF THE MCS THAT RESULTS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON`S CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE A WELL DEFINED SQUALL
LINE DUE TO 850 HPA INFLOW INCREASING PAST 50 KTS AND MLCAPES OF
3000+ J/KG.  THE INSTABILITY PRESENT ALSO INDICATES THAT
CONVECTION UNTIL AT LEAST 03Z SHOULD BE CLOSELY TIED TO SURFACE
BOUNDARIES, NEARLY FRONTAL ZONES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALIKE.
THROUGH ~21Z, THE BEST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AXIS SHOULD BE
QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE MAIN VORTICITY LOBE PIVOTS NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING, WHICH WOULD THEN ACCELERATE ACTIVITY TO THE EAST.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUPPORTS HOURLY RAIN RATES TO 2".  THIS COULD
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF INTENSE RAINS ALONG WITH TRAINING CELLS
PARTICULARLY THROUGH NE TX/SE OK AND WESTERN AR, WITH THE CAM
GUIDANCE INDICATING LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 5"+.


EASTERN KS/MO/WESTERN TN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A SECONDARY MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO MO NEAR THE WARM FRONT AHEAD
OF THE DEEPENING LOW.  MODELS SHOW IMPRESSIVE COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING THAT COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
INTENSIVE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL.  CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWEST
MO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE AND LESS OF A
THREAT AS THE DAY WEARS ON.  AFTERNOON ACTIVITY APPEARS AS IF IT
WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF THE CURRENT/MID-MORNING MCS.  A
RATHER LARGE SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS IS BEING MAINTAINED.
HOURLY RAIN RATES TO 2", WITH LOCAL MAXIMA OF 5"+, ARE POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA.


TN AND LOWER OH VALLEY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THERE IS A DECENT SIGNAL IN THE MODELS SHOWING A WEAK, POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING EAST OUT OF MO
THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
FRONTAL ZONE DROPPING VERY SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER OH AND
TN VALLEYS TODAY.  CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL IS LOW HERE
WITH TIMING OF STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP BUT THERE IS MODEST
INSTABILITY EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT (TOWARDS 2000
J/KG MLCAPE) ALONG WITH 1.25-1.5" PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND
MODEST RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET SUPPORT TO LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH THE FLOW NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL OUT OF THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST, COULD SEE SOME TRAINING CELLS WHERE SOME OF THE
MORE ORGANIZED STORMS DEVELOP WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED RUNOFF
ISSUES.


ROTH/SULLIVAN
$$





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