Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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085
FOUS30 KWBC 280049
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
848 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

...VALID 01Z SAT MAY 28 2016 - 12Z SAT MAY 28 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 WNW MCI 20 SSE IXD 45 S IXD 15 E CNU 25 WSW CNU 10 SE EMP
30 N EMP 30 N MHK 20 W LNK FET OMA 25 ENE FNB 10 WNW MCI.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 S VCT 15 SSE BYY 20 ESE KBQX 25 ESE KBBF 25 ESE BKS
30 WNW ALI 45 NNW RBO 40 SW VCT 10 S VCT.




...MID TO LOWER TX COAST...

CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WERE
TO SUPPRESS THE RISK AXIS OVER SOUTHEAST TX TO THE IMMEDIATE
CENTRAL TO UPPER TX COAST AS THE PRIMARY BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS BEEN BACKBUILDING INTO THIS REGION.  THE LS SECTION WAS
DISCONTINUED AS THE INSTABILITY IS NOT AS GREAT AS OVER TEXAS PLUS
TRENDS ARE FOR WARMING TOPS...AS INFLOW DEWPOINTS AS YOU HEAD EAST
ACROSS LA GRADUALLY DECREASING.
A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEAVY SHOWER/STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT
IN COASTAL SOUTH TEXAS AND VICINITY DUE
TO FRONTAL CONVERGENCE PLUS 3-5000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE.  THE
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR
INDICATING THE INSTABILITY WANES LATER TONIGHT AND ACTIVITY
DECREASES THEN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3" PER HOUR AND TOTALS OF 3-5 INCHES POSSIBLE
ALONG THIS LINE WHERE A PERIOD OF TRAINING IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING.

OVER EASTERN KS AND SOUTHEAST NE...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE EJECTING CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CLOSED LOW.  THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND 300 MB
DIVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS NORTHEAST KS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.  A FEW REPORTS OF
FLOODING HAVE COME IN FROM PRIOR ACTIVITY IN THESE AREAS AS FFG
VALUES ARE LOW FOLLOWING YESTERDAYS RAINS. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
WANE AS MIXED LAYER CAPES DECLINE LATER TONIGHT.  THE WEAK MIXED
LAYER CAPES NEAR 500 J/KG AND POCKETS OF DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION REDUCE CHANCES OF FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
GROWTH/INTENSIFICATION IN NORTHERN MO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PETERSEN/ORAVEC




$$





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