Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 230622
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
121 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

...VALID 06Z TUE DEC 23 2014 - 12Z WED DEC 24 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SSE GPT 7N0 25 ESE BTR 25 W PIB 20 W TCL 20 SSE 3A1 RMG
30 NNW GVL 10 W AVL 20 NNW GSP 10 N 27A 20 SW 3J7 10 E WRB
10 NE EZM 15 NNW AMG AYS 40 ESE VLD 25 N CTY 60 SSW 40J
35 SSW PAM 35 S DTS 20 S JKA 20 SSE GPT.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NW 40J 20 ENE AAF 10 WNW AAF 10 WSW ECP 10 NE NSE 15 SW OZR
20 ENE BGE 10 NNW VLD 10 NW 40J.


...CNTL/ERN GULF COAST NWD INTO THE SRN APLCNS...


A SLIGHT TO MDT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PARTS
OF SE LA/SRN MS EWD ACRS THE FL PANHANDLE AND NWD INTO THE SRN
APLCNS.
THE EVOLUTION OF THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPR TROF OVER THE CNTL U.S.
WILL LEAD TO THE DVLPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
ACRS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS PD.   STG JET
ENERGY DIVING TOWARD THE BASE OF THE HI AMPLITUDE UPR TROF ACRS TX
WILL SUPPORT A SECONDARY LOW DVLPMENT ALONG THE SRN PORTION OF
COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW TRACKING NNEWD TOWARD WRN KY REGION BY WED
MRNG.   THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SPEED OF THE
LOW AS WELL AS DVLPMENT OF ASSOCD MID LEVEL LOW IN THE BASE OF THE
UPR TROF.  THE GFS WHILE TRENDING SLOWER...CONTINUES TO BE A
SLIGHT FASTER OUTLIER SOLN.  AS THE LOW GRADUALLY ORGANIZED TUES
AFTN ACRS THE WRN GULF COAST REGION...EXPECT LOW LEVEL JET TO
STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 50 KTS OUT OF THE S/SW WHICH WILL ALLOW VERY
DEEP MSTR WITH PWS AOA 1.75 INCHES TO STREAM NWD INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND ERN GULF COAST REGION.  SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THIS MSTR
SOURCE HAS CONNECTIONS DEEP INTO GULF AS WELL AS TAPPING HI LEVEL
MSTR FROM THE SUBTROPICS WEST OF MEX.  THE INFLUX OF DEEP
TROPICAL-LIKE MSTR COUPLED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
STRENGTHENING RT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE WARM SECTOR THAT WILL DVLP NWD
ACRS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PD.  THEY
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL LIKELY DVLP INTO A MORE ORGANIZED
SQLN TYPE FEATURE TUE NIGHT AS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH EWD ACRS
THE CNTL GULF COAST AND TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE BY WED MRNG. AT
THIS TIME FEEL THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL TEND TO OCCUR IN VCNTY OF
THE FL PANHANDLE WITH ONE/TWO PUNCH OF EARLY MRNG/AFTN HEAVY RAIN
BANDS AS OFFSHORE CONVECTION DVLPG ALONG AXIS OF HIER PWS LIFTS
SLOWLY NWD ACRS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY STG COLD FRONT BAND TUES
NIGHT.  WITHIN THIS AREA AREA AVG AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS
EXPECTED WITH ISOLD MUCH HEAVIER AMOUNTS WHERE TRAINING OCCURS AS
SUPPORTED BY GENL CONSENSUS OF 00Z HI RES GUIDANCE.

SULLIVAN

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