Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 231455
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1048 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017

...VALID 15Z FRI JUN 23 2017 - 12Z SAT JUN 24 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 WSW CMBR 15 NE CWST CYSL 10 ENE HUL 30 WNW BGR 15 NNW BML
15 SSW MPV ALB 15 W 12N 20 SSE LNS 20 NNE GAI SHD 15 ENE HSP
10 W 6V3 25 NE TYS 10 WSW RHP 20 E GVL 10 N FFC 15 N AUO
25 W TOI MOB 25 NNE 1B7 15 W KXPY 25 N GSM 20 SSW KVNP CWF
25 WSW JAS 30 WSW TYR 15 E ACT 25 W 05F 20 ESE JCT 30 W SJT
20 SSE INK 40 E HOB 45 WNW SNK 15 SSW SWW 20 N DYS 20 NNE CDS
30 W CHK 20 SW RVS 10 WNW FSM 10 NNW HOT 10 ESE LRF 10 SSE BVX
25 W POF 25 WSW SAR 25 NW 1H2 10 SE LAF 15 S FWA 20 S CXHA
20 NW ERI 20 ENE ELZ 20 WNW RME 10 WSW CMBR.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 WSW LFT 15 ESE POE 45 W IER SLR 10 SSE 1F9 45 S F05
10 WSW FDR 20 ESE DUC 20 N AQR 10 WSW DEQ 30 WNW ELD 30 WSW LLQ
25 ENE SGT 10 NNE JBR POF 20 SSE SAR 10 SE MTO 25 ENE MIE
25 NNW MFD 10 S ERI 15 SE BFD 15 S IPT 15 N MUI 15 NW THV
15 S W99 25 N LWB 20 NNW I16 25 ENE LOZ 30 SSW CSV 25 NE DNN
10 ESE RMG 20 SW ANB 55 S TCL 35 E HBG 7R3 25 WSW LFT.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 S MDH 10 NW AJG 10 ESE GEZ 25 NW OSU CAK 15 N BVI 25 NE IDI
20 E AOO 10 SSW CBE EKN 48I 30 N JKL 10 ENE BWG 35 NNW MSL
40 WNW NMM 40 S JAN 20 SSW HEZ 15 N AEX 30 NE IER 30 WNW MLU
25 SSE LLQ 20 S UTA 15 SSW BYH 30 E POF 15 S MDH.


...15 UTC UPDATE...

ADJUSTED THE PREVIOUS EXPANSIVE MODERATE AND SURROUNDING
SLIGHT/MARGINAL DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS FOR LATEST RADAR
AND HRRR TRENDS THAT ACCOUNT FOR SYSTEM/MAIN PCPN AXIS
PROGRESSION/EVOLUTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS SINCE THE WPC 09 UTC
ISSUANCE. THIS ALSO TAKES INTO ACCOUNT WPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
#380 THAT WAS JUST ISSUED FOR THE OH VALLEY STATES.

SCHICHTEL


...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTH INTO TN/OH VALLEYS
AND NORTHERN MID-ATL/NORTHEAST...

THE COMBINATION OF DECAYING CINDY LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OR UP THE
OH RIVER TOWARD THE NRN MID-ATL STATES AND MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES ALONG THE ACTIVE UPPER WESTERLIES WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY. CINDY IS
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE FROM EAST CENTRAL AR TO NORTHERN KY TO
MD/NORTHERN VA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS, WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN
AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING PART OF THE PROGRESSIVE JET. MEANWHILE, AN
ACTIVE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL
SWEEP FROM THE GREAT LAKES/WESTERN OH VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST,
WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE SOUTH/LOWER MS
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. GFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES SUGGEST
INVOF CINDY AND OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PWS 2.5 TO 3 TIMES
ABOVE AVG, WHILE REACHING THE 95TH-99TH PERCENTILE. THIS ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE CONTENT INTERACTING WITH EACH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE
SHOULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC KEPT CONTINUITY AND
CONTINUED EXTENDED SLIGHT AND MODERATE THREATS OF EXCESSIVE RAIN.
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS AND HI-RES SUITE OF NAM
CONEST/ARW/NMMB, A MODERATE THREAT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN
AR/NORTHERN LA INTO NWRN MS/WRN TN AND UP THE OH RIVER FROM
SOUTHERN IL AND IN, A LARGE PART OF KY AND SOUTHERN OH/NORTHERN WV
AND SWRN PA. A SLIGHT WILL SURROUND THE MODERATE AND STRETCH FROM
THE NORTHERN TX/SOUTHERN OK BORDER TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES OF LA/MS AND NORTHERN AL AND UP INTO TN/NORTHERN GA, ALMOST
ALL THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATL REGION. WITHIN THE TWO
AREAS, WPC WENT WITH 1-4 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER NUMBERS OF AS MUCH AS 5-8 INCHES PER LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE. SOME OF THESE SPOTS ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE
TROPICAL RAINS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND FFG NUMBERS ARE
EXTREMELY LOW. A HIGH THREAT WAS CONTEMPLATED BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT, THOUGH PARTS OF SERN/EASTERN AR AND
NORTHERN LA/NWRN MS AT THE MOMENT ARE A CONCERN ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN IL/IN AND A LARGE PART OF KY LATER.

FOR MORE ON CINDY...PLEASE REFER TO ADVISORIES FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER.


MUSHER

$$




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