Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 140831
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
330 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2017

...VALID 12Z SAT JAN 14 2017 - 12Z SUN JAN 15 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 N ELP 10 S HMN 30 WNW SRR 30 SSW CQC 10 SW CQC 25 WSW LVS
15 ENE LVS 40 E LVS 30 ENE TCC 30 S CVN 20 W HOB 25 S CNM
25 S GDP 60 SW GDP 40 SE MMCS ELP 20 N ELP.


...CENTRAL/EASTERN NM...FAR SOUTHWEST TX...

THE UPSTREAM UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTING TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BE EJECTING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
UPPER JET DYNAMICS INTERACTING WITH THE NOSE OF A 40 TO 50 KT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET LIFTING UP THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY FOSTER
SOME NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NM AND POSSIBLY REACHING OUT INTO WESTERN
TX. A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE AGREES IN SHOWING A
POOLING OF 500+ J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX AND SOUTHEAST
NM WHICH WILL BE INTERCEPTED BY THE STRONG UPSTREAM ENERGY. THIS
CONVECTION MAY BE RATHER WELL-ORGANIZED AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH MAY BE AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. SOME RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE EXPECTED HEAVIER RAIN RATES.

ORRISON







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