Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 240814
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
412 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

...VALID 12Z SUN APR 24 2016 - 12Z MON APR 25 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



UPPER MS VALLEY...

AN INCREASING AREA OF STG ISENTROPIC LIFT ACRS THE UPR MS VALLEY
AIDED BY STG RT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET NORTH OF THE GT
LAKES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME NEARLY E/W BANDED AREAS OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION THRU THE PD..SOME OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT
TIMES.  THE 12Z ARW WHICH HAD BEEN NORTH OF MOST OF THE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH IN THE 00Z MODEL RUN..WITH ITS AXIS OF
HEAVIER RAIN ALIGNING BETTER WITH THE 85H-7H CONVERGENCE AXES.
THIS ADJUSTMENT SWD ALLOWS FOR A BETTER FIT WITH MOST OF THE 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE ACRS THE UPR MS VALLEY WITH GENL CONSENSUS OF 00Z
HI RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTING AN AXIS OF 2 TO 3 INCH RAINS FROM PARTS
OF NRN MN INTO NRN WI AND THE U.P. OF MI.  WHILE THESE RAINS ARE
MORE OF A LONGER DURATION EVENT...WHERE THE STGR NEAR STATIONARY
BANDS SET UP RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD APCH SOME OF THE LOWER 3 HR FF
GUIDANCE VALUES ACRS THE REGION...PSBLY LEADING TO ISOLD RUNOFF
PROBLEMS.

SULLIVAN
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