Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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864
FOUS30 KWBC 231324
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
923 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

...VALID 15Z MON MAY 23 2016 - 12Z TUE MAY 24 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 WNW JLN 35 WSW RUE TXK 15 SSW SLR 15 N RPH 10 SSW LTS
15 N CSM 25 NW END 10 SW ICT 10 S SLN 10 N HYS HLC 35 SW HDE
20 E HDE 10 SW JYR 20 SE OLU TQE 15 S HNR 15 ESE ICL STJ
25 WNW JLN.


...CENTRAL PLAINS DOWN INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...

EXPECT AN AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO FORM THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND ADJACENT MO/IA ALONG THE NOSE OF
THE PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET. THERE IS ALSO SOME MODEL
SIGNAL...ALTHOUGH OF LESSER CONFIDENCE...THAT EARLY DAY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KS AND NORTHEAST OK AS
850-700 MB FLOW VEERS...RESULTING IN GREATER FLOW ACROSS ISOTHERMS
/ UPGLIDE...AND MOISTURE IN PLACE.

THE 06Z GFS SHOWS A 700 MB WAVE CROSSING EASTERN CO...WHICH SHOULD
GENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MOVE DOWNSTREAM IN A ZONE OF 700
MB CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN KS TONIGHT.
AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
WARRANTS A BROAD SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA.

LATER TODAY THE 00Z RUNS OF THE WRF ARW AND NSSL WRF SHOW
ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED SWATHS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER OK AND
NORTH TX...WHICH MAY BE FURTHER FOCUSED BY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ESTABLISHED THIS MORNING...AND PERHAPS STRETCHING AS FAR EAST AS
THE ARKLATEX.

THIS REGION WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL
JET AXIS NOSING OUT INTO THE PLAINS...AND WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW UP
INTO THE CAPROCK REGION AND BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO INITIATION OF STORMS. THE 06Z GFS SHOWS
700 MB CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E ADVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE TX PANHANDLE AND STORMS DEVELOPING THERE SHOULD MOVE
DOWNSTREAM INTO OK/NORTH TX OVERNIGHT IN TANDEM WITH THE 700 MB
THETA-E RIDGE AND THETA-E ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE.

PETERSEN
$$





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