Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 270053
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
852 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...VALID 01Z THU AUG 27 2015 - 12Z THU AUG 27 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

NOWHERE IN THE SOUTHWEST WERE FLASH FLOOD PARAMETERS PARTICULARLY
WELL FOCUSED...WITH DEEP LAYER LIFT... MODERATE INFLOW... AND
INSTABILITY NOT APPEARING TO BE COLOCATED. A BRIEF FLARE UP IN
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HAD FADED OWING TO LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HAD
BEEN SUFFICIENT. THE GREATEST OVERLAP OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY
HAD OCCURRED IN NORTHERN ARIZONA...WHERE CONVECTION WAS GENERALLY
PROGRESSIVE. BY 00Z...SOME OF THE STRONGER INDIVIDUAL CELLS OF THE
DAY HAD DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST AZ...WHERE A FULL DAY OF HEATING
HAD OCCURRED. STORMS HERE MAY PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SMALL
SCALES UNTIL INSTABILITY IS EXHAUSTED BEYOND 04Z. THERE IS LITTLE
INDICATION THAT TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING WILL OCCUR IN ANY
ORGANIZED FASHION...HOWEVER...OWING TO A LACK OF INFLOW.

BURKE
$$




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