Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 272044
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
444 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

...VALID 2044Z WED APR 27 2016 - 12Z THU APR 28 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 ENE GEZ 25 SSW ILN 35 N JKL 35 SE LEX 25 ENE GLW 35 NE HOP
10 SE MWA 10 S STL 15 SSE UIN 15 S GBG 15 WSW PNT 20 W LAF
10 ENE GEZ.


...NW MISSOURI/SW IOWA/FAR NE KANSAS/FAR SE NEBRASKA...

WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...CONVECTION
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  GIVEN
THE WET ANTECENDENT SOIL CONDTIONS...AS EVIDENCED BY LOW FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...THESE AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LOCAL RUNOFF
CONCERNS.  REFER TO WPC MPD #142 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...


...MIDWEST...

STGLY DIFFLUENT UPR JET PATTERN ACRS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST WILL
PRIME REGION FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINS ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOW-MID LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND
CONVERGENCE PROVIDING LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF A QSTNRY E/W FRONT
IN THE MID MS VALLEY TO LOWER OH VALLEY.  STG INSTABILITY DVLPG TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL
HELP SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.  THERE IS A
SIGNAL IN THE HI RES MODELS SUPPORTING HEAVIER RAINS ACRS SRN IL
INTO SRN IN/WRN KY WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL GLOBAL
MODELS.  STORM PROPAGATION VECTORS SUGGEST SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING
CELLS THRU THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING PROVIDE A THREAT OF RUNOFF
CONCERNS.  SOME LOCALIZED GREATER THAN 3 INCH SHORT TERM RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE PSBL (AS SHOWN IN THE 06Z CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM
FORECAST) WHICH WOULD EXCEED SOME OF THE LOWER FFG VALUES ACRS
THIS REGION.

PEREIRA/PETERSEN
$$





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