Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 151358
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
957 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

...VALID 15Z TUE APR 15 2014 - 12Z WED APR 16 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SSW MPO 30 NNE IPT 20 N BGM 35 WSW SLK 10 E CWIZ 15 ENE CYSC
20 E BML 20 NE 1P1 15 NNW BAF BDR ISP 25 E BLM 10 SSW MPO.


...FL PNHNDL INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA...

CONTINUING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF FL WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LOCALIZED RUN OFF AND
PONDING PROBLEMS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  HOWEVER WITH WARMING
CLOUD TOPS...DECREASING LIGHTNING FLASH DENSITY AND A GENERAL
BROADENING IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE MODERATE RAINFALL...IT
APPEARS THE PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE RAINFALL AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED.  ONLY THE NMM SHOWED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUING UNTIL 18Z...WHILE OTHER HI RES MODELS
AND THE GLOBAL MODELS WERE MORE MODEST.  IN EITHER CASE...THE AREA
OF RAIN WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PART OF THE STATE WHERE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE WAS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES PER 3 HOURS.

...NORTHEAST...

LITTLE CHANGE FM PREVIOUS THINKING HERE WITH MODELS CONTG TO
ADVERTISE A LONG DURATION HVY RNFL EVENT FOR THE REGION.  IN
ADDITION...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE SOMEWHAT LOW OVR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES.

12Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A WELL DEFINED PW PLUME IN PLACE WITH
H85 WINDS BLOWING FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 50 KTS FEEDING THE
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.  STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASOCTD
WITH THE APCH OF THE AMPLIFYING CNTRL U.S. UPPER TROF SUGGESTS PDS
OF HVY RNFL EMBEDDED IN WHAT GNLY WILL BE A MDT PCPN RNFL PATTERN
ARE POSSIBLE.  STRENGTHENING JET DYNAMICS WITH TIME ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LEND A HAND TO THE LIFTING PROCESSES AS MSTR IS TAPPED
IN THE STRONG N/S ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT WORKING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA.  EXPECT SOME 1 TO 2 INCH AMTS IN 3 TO 6 HOURS
WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCH STORM TOTALS BEING POSSIBLE.

BANN

$$




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