Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 011954
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
353 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014

...VALID 18Z FRI AUG 01 2014 - 00Z SUN AUG 03 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ESE FYJ 25 NE FYJ 15 W CGE 10 E FDK 15 NNE JST 15 ESE ITH
15 WNW RUT 15 NE LCI 30 E PSM 15 ENE SFZ 15 ESE HVN 25 SSE JFK
20 ESE ACY 35 ENE OXB 50 ESE WAL 75 SE MFV 65 NE FFA 15 NNE HSE
20 SSE MRH 30 SW MRH 10 SSE NCA 10 N OAJ PGV 20 ESE FYJ.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 E LVS 60 N ROW 10 S ROW ATS 10 NNE CNM 15 ESE CNM 30 SE CNM
20 W INK 15 NE PEQ 15 SSE PEQ 25 S PEQ 30 N E38 30 N MRF
65 WNW MRF 75 SE MMCS 35 SSE MMCS 35 SE DUG 35 S DUG 55 WSW OLS
85 S GBN 60 ESE YUM 35 ENE YUM 45 ESE BLH 45 ENE BLH 45 ESE EED
35 WNW PRC 10 N FLG 30 N INW 35 WSW RQE 35 NE GUP 30 NNW 4SL
30 SSE E33 25 NNW SKX 25 ESE VTP 15 S TAD 35 E LVS.


COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC

IN THE SHORT TERM---CONVECTION IS ENHANCING FROM EASTERN
PA---EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN DE---ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF NJ INTO
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.  SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS---IN THE AXIS OF ABOVE
AVERAGE PW VALUES THAT WILL PERSIST TO THE EAST OF THE SLOW MOVING
UPSTREAM TROF THIS AFTERNOON.  IN AREAS OF SLOW MOVEMENT AND/OR
TRAINING---ISOLATED 1-2"+ PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN AN HOUR ARE
POSSIBLE. WHILE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE  WATER VALUES
STRETCHES FROM NORTHEAST MD INTO SOUTHWEST CT...THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL RATES ON THE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PLUME...CLOSER TO
THE THE BETTER INSTABILITY. MOST OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CAPE
DRIVEN...AS A SURFACE FOCUS IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. BECAUSE OF THE
CAPE DRIVEN MODE...MUCH OF THE QPF AWAY FROM THE COAST MAY START
DISSIPATING AFTER 02/01Z.

OTHERWISE---PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS---AND FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
JET DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS---NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  WPC QPF LEANED TOWARD THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF MAX PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ABOVE COASTAL
AREAS--ALTHOUGH THERE IS MODEL SPREAD---ESPECIALLY AMONG THE HI
RES ARW--NMM AND NSSL WRF FOR HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS INLAND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC IN THE RIC---DC---BWI---PHL CORRIDOR.  THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA WAS ALSO CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST---BUT MAY NEED
TO BE ADJUSTED INLAND DEPENDING ON HOW CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
ENHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

SW TX---NM INTO SOUTHERN AZ

BASED ON THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING NOW ACROSS NM AND NORTHERN
AZ...THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AZ...IN ADDITION TO ALL BUT EASTERN AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST NM.

OVERALL---THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE RECENT PATTERN FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST. POST FRONTAL EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES--WHILE UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL BE
ENHANCED AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD FROM
NORTHWEST MEXICO INT0 SOUTHERN AZ/SOUTHERN CA ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE GREAT BASIN UPPER HIGH.   WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH QPF
DETAILS---IT IS HIGHER FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM SOUTHWEST TX---INTO LARGE PORTIONS OF NM AND
SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL AZ IN THE PERSISTENT AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES--- 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN.   ISOLATED
SHORT TERM 1"+ PRECIPITATION TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

ORAVEC/HAYES
$$




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