Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 110051
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
751 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

...VALID 01Z SUN DEC 11 2016 - 12Z SUN DEC 11 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 NE MOD 10 ESE BAB 25 NE OVE 35 N BLU 15 SSW TRK 55 SSE TVL
35 WSW BIH 45 NE VIS 30 ENE FAT 40 NE MOD.


...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SIERRA-NEVADA...

EARLY SATURDAY EVENING A WIDE FRONTAL BAND WAS PRODUCING RAIN
RATES AROUND A QUARTER INCH PER HOUR IN THE SIERRAS. THE FLAT
ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY A BIT OVERNIGHT...WITH A HEIGHT
FALL AND RISE COUPLET TRANSLATING ACROSS THIS REGION...LEADING TO
A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD SAGGING AND EVENTUAL LESSENING OF THE
PRECIPITATION. AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WERE IN EFFECT AS OF 01Z FOR
A BROAD AREA IN THE ELDORADO AND TAHOE NATIONAL FORESTS AND
EXTENDING OVER TO RENO AND CARSON CITY NEVADA. IN SOME LOCATIONS A
COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT...RECENT HEAVY RAIN...AND CONTINUED
MODERATE RAIN...WAS LEADING TO HIGH WATER AND FLOODING.
OVERNIGHT...RAIN RATES ARE NOT LIKELY TO EXCEED THE ROUGHLY
QUARTER INCH PER HOUR THAT WAS BEING OBSERVED THIS EVENING...BUT
THE EVENT WILL BE SLOW TO END...AND MAY DELIVERE ANOTHER ONE INCH
OR SLIGHTLY MORE TO PARTS OF THE SIERRAS. THIS COULD PROVE TO BE
MOST TROUBLESOME AROUND ELDORADO AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CALIFORNIA...WHERE MULTIPLE INCHES OF RAIN HAD ALREADY
FALLEN...AND WHERE EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BURKE
$$





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