Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 180832
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
431 AM EDT FRI AUG 18 2017

...VALID 12Z FRI AUG 18 2017 - 12Z SAT AUG 19 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SW MMCS 30 E MMCS 30 WNW GDP 25 S CNM 10 N INK 25 SE INK
20 NW FST 45 ESE E38 75 SW 6R6 105 S E38 90 E MMCU.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
100 ENE DAB 30 ESE DAB ISM 20 NE PGD 15 SSE SRQ 70 SSW CTY
25 SE AAF 30 SSE DTS 30 NNW KMIS 30 WNW MSY 30 NNE LFT
20 NNW ACP 20 WNW IER 25 W SHV DUA 20 ESE HBR 25 SSE PPA
25 S GUY 35 NE LBL 30 W EMP 35 SW CDJ 30 SSE DMO 35 ENE RUE
30 NNE GLH 45 WNW MEI 15 NW GZH 10 N 11J 30 NNE ABY 20 NNW AMG
20 WNW SAV 25 NNE NBC 30 SE SSC 10 WNW MEB 10 ESE HBI 15 E DAN
25 S SHD 20 NW KW66 15 SSW THV 30 SW AVP 25 WNW MSV 10 NNE RME
SLK CWIZ 10 NNE CYSC 25 SE GNR 30 NNW CWSS 25 ESE CWPE
20 SW CYQI.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SSE WWD 10 SSW OXB 15 NW MFV 20 NW FYJ 10 SE NYG 20 WNW ILG
15 ENE FWN DDH 10 WSW IZG 20 NW RKD 70 SE RKD OWD 10 SW HTO.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 E GMJ 20 NE JSV 15 SW MKO 20 W RVS 20 W BVO 15 NW CNU
45 SSE OJC 45 NW SGF 20 E GMJ.


...MID ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST STATES...

MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE WHERE IT WAS AS A
DAY 2 FORECAST.  THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS
AN ANOMALOUS AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALREADY IN POSITION AS
AN AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
IN ADDITION...THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO FOCUS
THE ACTIVITY.  WITH NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABEL WATER IN
PLACE...ABOUT 2 STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRODUCERS.  THINKING
IS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL BE EAST OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR...WHILE IN THE
NORTHEAST SOME MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE HEAVY RAIN MAY FORM OFF
SHORE AND NOT GET DRAWN INLAND.  THE SLIGHT RISK CONVEYS THE IDEA
THAT HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA WHILE SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO
PLACEMENT.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...

MODELS STILL DEPICT CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES.  THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THEIR PRESENTATION OF
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BUT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BEING SOME 2.5
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ABOVE NORMAL...AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET SWEEPING OVER THE AREA AT THE RIGHT
TIME OF DAY...WE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK OVER PARTS OF OK WITH A
FAIRLY WIDE MARGINAL RISK AREA SURROUNDING THAT.  ALSO PULLED THE
MARGINAL RISK BACK WEST IN RESPONSE TO LOCATION OF CONVECTION
WHICH FIRED UP OVER NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OK.  THAT SHOULD
BE A SHORT TERM CONCERN.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BANN

$$





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