Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 252346
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
746 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017

...VALID 01Z SUN MAR 26 2017 - 12Z SUN MAR 26 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...01Z UPDATE...

AT 2330Z...DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES WAS BECOMING
FRACTURED...WITH WANING INSTABILITY AND WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING
BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AXIS OF GREATEST
INSTABILITY. THE HRRR PREDICTS ONE CONCENTRATED SWATH OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA WITHIN THE
BETTER COMBINATION OF CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP LAYER
HEIGHT FALLS. THIS REGION HAD BEEN OVERTURNED...HOWEVER...WITH
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ONGOING AT 2330Z. THIS WILL
LIKELY MINIMIZE INSTABILITY AND PREVENT A MORE ORGANIZED OR
INTENSE FALL OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN RECENT DRY WEATHER AND HIGH
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THIS REGION WE HAVE REMOVED THE
MARGINAL RISK...AS THE ODDS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG APPEAR TO BE
LESS THAN 2 PERCENT.

BURKE
$$





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