Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
137
FOUS30 KWBC 151402
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
901 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2017

...VALID 15Z SUN JAN 15 2017 - 12Z MON JAN 16 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NNE LHB 20 SE AUS 20 SSW SKF 25 SSW UVA 15 SE DLF 25 SSW E29
50 WSW E29 50 NNE 6R6 50 S MAF 20 WSW ODO 15 SE HOB 35 NNE HOB
30 WNW LBB 25 N PVW 20 ESE PPA 25 NNE CSM 15 ESE OUN 25 SSE OKM
25 WSW RKR 30 N LBR 15 WNW OSA 20 WSW TYR 30 NNE LHB.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SSW CRS 20 SSE TPL 20 W AUS 20 SSE 6R9 30 NNW 05F 20 N SEP
20 NNW RPH 10 NNW SPS 15 S DUC 20 NW GYI 15 E DUA 10 W PRX
15 ENE TRL 10 SSW CRS.


15Z UPDATE...
BASED ON RECENT HRRR RUNS AND LATEST UA DATA...NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AREA OR REASONING.  SULLIVAN

...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

A STRONG AND RATHER COMPACT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AND ITS
ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT TODAY ACROSS NM
AND WESTERN TX...AND THIS WILL DRIVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM
SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING NORTHEAST ALONG A WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND UP INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OK BY EARLY
MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONG UPPER
DIFFLUENCE/COOLING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE STRONG TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BEGIN TO
ENCAPSULATE MORE OF WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOME
GRADUALLY A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN TX AND SOUTHERN OK AS ROBUST LEFT-EXIT REGION JET
DYNAMICS INTERACTS WITH A MOIST 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH PWATS
RISING TO OVER 1.25 INCHES. IN FACT...THE HIRES GUIDANCE IN
PARTICULAR INDICATES SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WITH AS MUCH AS 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT AND EAST OF THE LOW CENTER FOR SOME
RATHER STRONG AND POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE FOCUSED IN BANDS OR SEGMENTS ORIENTED IN A NORTH/SOUTH
OR NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST FASHION...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SOME INTENSE RAINFALL RATES THAT COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2
INCHES/HR. THE EJECTING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL TEND TO KEEP THE
CONVECTION RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERALL SHOULD
NOT BE TOO HIGH...BUT SOME TOTALS MAY REACH LOCALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES
WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA GIVEN THE STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AND
INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. SOME BRIEF RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOOD CONCERNS EXIST AS A RESULT. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT
EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN OK WHERE EVEN UP HERE THERE WILL
BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RESULTING HEAVY RAINS...BUT THE
GREATEST OVERALL THREAT WILL BE TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL TX NEAR THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

ORRISON







$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.