Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 181150
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
749 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...VALID 12Z THU SEP 18 2014 - 12Z FRI SEP 19 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NNE AEG SAF 40 NE LVS 40 SW DHT 30 WNW CDS 60 N ABI 55 W RPH
10 S INJ 45 WSW JAS 15 N KVBS 20 ENE KXIH 15 N KGVX 30 NW KMZG
45 WSW VCT 20 NNE E29 40 NNE 6R6 35 SW 6R6 70 SW 6R6 75 S E38
40 WSW MRF 50 SE MMCS 65 SW MMCS 65 SSE DUG 55 SSE OLS
30 ENE DMA 45 NNW SAD 35 SE SJN 35 WSW AEG 15 WSW AEG 10 NNE AEG.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
75 S DMN 35 SE DUG 10 N DUG 25 S SAD 55 NE SAD 65 NNW TCS
25 SW 4MY 15 ENE CQC 20 N CVS 15 NNW CVN 15 NNE PVW 35 SW CDS
45 NNW DYS 40 SSW SWW 25 SE MDD 10 E INK MMCS 75 S DMN.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 NW SVC 45 ENE TCS 25 NNW 4CR 65 ENE 4CR 35 SSW CVS
40 ENE ATS 20 SW CNM 20 NNW ELP 40 SW LRU 65 S DMN 55 ESE DUG
35 ESE DUG 55 NE DUG 35 ESE SAD 35 NW SVC.


AZ/NM/CENTRAL TX
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A LARGE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA REMAINS FROM SOUTHEAST AZ THROUGH
SOUTHERN NM AND A BELT OF CENTRAL TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMAINS OF ODILE, WITH A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
CONTINUING FOR SOUTHERN NM.  THE 1/3/6 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO LOWER OVER THIS REGION WITH THE CONTINUED WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.  WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF LONG DURATION FLOODING
REMAINS A CONCERN...THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PW AVAILABILITY (3-3.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL/HIGH
AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS (1-3.5 INCHES) WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THE
FFG AND ELEVATE THE FLASH FLOODING RISK.  THE EXPECTATION IS THAT
INSTABILITY SHOULD BUILD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN TX
ALONG WITH ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING WITHIN A PARTLY CLOUDY REGION -- RECENT RAP RUNS INDICATE
CAPE VALUES RISE INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS TX AND
SOUTHEAST NM BY THIS AFTERNOON.  PER COORDINATION WITH THE SJT/SAN
ANGELO TX FORECAST OFFICE, CONSTRICTED THE MODERATE RISK A BIT
ACROSS CENTRAL TX.


EASTERN TX/SOUTHWEST LA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AT PRESENT, THE INSTABILITY LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN TX, WITH
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW SLOWLY FADING.  THE EXPECTATION IS THAT
INSTABILITY SHOULD BUILD ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX ALONG WITH ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN A PARTLY
CLOUDY REGION -- RECENT RAP RUNS INDICATE CAPE VALUES RISE INTO
THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS TX AND SOUTHEAST NM BY THIS
AFTERNOON.  PER COORDINATION WITH THE SJT/SAN ANGELO TX FORECAST
OFFICE, CONSTRICTED THE MODERATE RISK A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL TX.
THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL SCATTER-SHOT WITHIN A TRIANGLE BOUNDED BY EXTREME
SOUTHWEST LA, THE MIDDLE TX COAST, AND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TX
HILL COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TODAY WITHIN AN AREA OF >2"
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.  LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 4-8" ARE ADVERTISED IN THIS REGION, SO KEPT SOUTHEAST
TX AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LA WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK.


KS/OK/RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION HAS BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING BEHIND
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST OK AS LOW-LEVEL INFLOW
WEAKENS.  THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE MOVING INTO AREAS WHERE IT
HAS NOT RAINED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE COMBINATION OF GREATER
PROGRESSION AND HIGHER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WITHIN THE
PRECIPITATION AREA`S PATH LED TO A DOWNGRADING OF THE AREA FROM A
SLIGHT RISK TO A "SEE TEXT" HIGHLIGHT.


ROTH/HURLEY
$$





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