Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 260153
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
952 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

...VALID 03Z THU MAR 26 2015 - 00Z FRI MAR 27 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 E TUL 25 SW AIZ SUS OLY 25 W HAO 20 SSW CVG 40 SSW EHR
20 NNE ARG 10 S FSM ADH 15 ESE SNL 10 E TUL.


...NORTHEAST OK...NORTHERN AR...SOUTHERN MO...SOUTHERN
IL...SOUTHERN IN...NORTHWEST KY...

MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK...WHICH CONTINUES TO REFLECT THE GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SW-NE ORIENTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN THE ACTIVE
CONVECTION EARLY IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AHEAD OF HEIGHT FALLS
PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.  THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW---BETWEEN 40-50 KTS---WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
INTO THE BOUNDARY---ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE WAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD AS VERY FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCE UVVS ALONG THE FRONT IN
AN AXIS OF 1-1.5+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN PW VALUES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM EASTERN OK---NORTHERN AR---SOUTHERN MO---INTO THE LOWER OH
RIVER VALLEY AREA.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM
THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY HOURS OF THURSDAY WHEN THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO EAST
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.  IN AREAS OF
TRAINING---SHORT TERM PRECIP TOTALS OF 2-4"+ WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH HOURLY RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.  IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW MOVING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT---THE FRONT
WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING---LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN TX
AREA.  FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST---HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ALSO
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 1200 UTC THU OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY
INTO THE EASTERN LAKES AS THE OVERALL FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WEAKEN.
STILL---WITH PW VALUES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SURFACE WAVE---MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS OF
.25-.50"+ POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA---BUT WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR RUNOFF ISSUES.

HURLEY
$$




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