Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 290807
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
406 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

...VALID 12Z FRI APR 29 2016 - 12Z SAT APR 30 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NW MLC 15 SW MKO 10 N BPK 30 SE POF 50 WSW HOP 50 SSW CKV
40 NNW MSL 15 NE TUP 25 ENE GWO 30 S GLH 35 ENE BQP 20 SW AEX
15 ENE BPT GLS 10 NW BYY 45 WNW VCT 20 ESE HDO 25 SW ERV
10 WSW 05F 15 WNW GYI 20 NW MLC.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NE CLL CRS 15 WSW GVT 40 WNW DEQ 40 NW DEQ 25 ESE RKR
25 NE RUE 15 N M19 15 SE JBR NQA 10 SE OLV 35 SE UTA 35 N GWO
25 SSE LLQ 35 WSW MLU 10 ESE JAS 30 W BPT LVJ 10 WNW SGR
15 ESE 11R 25 NE CLL.


EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY

BROAD SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY
FOR INCREASING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
STRONG CLOSED LOWS TO EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN---ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF
THE EJECTING UPPER TROF...WITH ANOMALOUS PW VALUES 2+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THIS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO
STRETCH FROM  NORTHERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL
SUPPORT AN INITIAL AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION PUSHING DOWNSTREAM
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION FIRING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER EASTERN
TX/SOUTHEAST OK AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RE-FOCUSES OVER
EASTERN TX...PUSHING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO NW LA...AR...NW MS
AND WESTERN TN.  THE HI RES ARW---NSSL WRF WHICH WERE QUICKER TO
MOVE THE EXPECTED ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND
WERE FAVORED FOR QPF DETAILS THIS PERIOD GIVEN THEIR BETTER
PERFORMANCE WITH LARGE SCALE CONVECTIVE EVENTS.  A PERIOD OF
TRAINING OF CELLS IN A GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION LIKELY IN WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE SCALE ORGANIZED
AREA OF CONVECTION.   IN AREAS OF TRAINING---SHORT TERM PRECIP
TOTAL OF 2"+ AND ISOLATED TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4-6" POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC
$$





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