Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 301123
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
722 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...VALID 12Z WED JUL 30 2014 - 12Z THU JUL 31 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WNW ELD 35 SSW TXK 15 SSW OSA 10 SSE GVT 10 S DTO 15 NNW 1F9
30 WSW SPS CDS 30 ESE AMA 15 NNW AMA 15 SSE DUX 25 NNW CAO
25 SSW PUB 30 WSW FCS 25 NE CCU 25 SW PUM 10 SW LAR 25 SSW BRX
30 WNW IBM 35 SW SNY 30 N ITR 35 SW HYS 35 ESE AAO 25 E ROG
10 N LRF 25 N ELD 20 WNW ELD.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 S CHK 20 N HHF 20 WSW LBL 20 SSW GCK 30 ESE DDC 30 WNW PNC
15 NE TUL 15 E FSM 35 W MWT 25 E AQR 10 S CHK.


GIVEN THE LOW ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND NORTHEAST CO (DUE TO ACTIVITY TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING)...THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE VULNERABLE AGAIN
DURING THIS PERIOD. LOCAL RADARS AND RADAR WIND PROFILES CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE UPSLOPE CONTINUING IN SOUTHEAST WY AND NORTHEAST
CO...AS THE LOW LEVEL FRONT NORTH OF THE FLOW PERSISTS. THERE ARE
MEMBERS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (IN PARTICULAR THE 00Z
SSEO MEAN AND THE 00Z ARW) THAT SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN
AN INCH IN SIX HOURS LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THAT ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS O.50
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CO...THERE IS A THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING. THUS...THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREAS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THE APPROACH OF A
STREAM OF FASTER FLOW CROSSING NORTHERN NM AND CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES.  AS IT DOES SO...IT WAS HELPING TO SPIN
UP MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY OVER A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY.  THE
RESULTING CONVECTION WAS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.  THIS SET
UP CERTAINLY FAVORS AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AREA OF HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAIN.  THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY...CONTINUING TO BE FED DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE BY THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  THE MODELS STILL SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 6 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS OK...WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO
THE LATITUDE WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL.  WPC
CONTINUED A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MDT RISK MAINLY ACROSS
OK JUST IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

HAYES/BANN



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