Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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684
FOUS30 KWBC 300027
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
726 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2016

...VALID 01Z WED NOV 30 2016 - 12Z WED NOV 30 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 NNW HEZ 15 NNE OLV 35 SW CKV 15 SSE LEX 20 WSW HTS 40 N LNP
30 ESE 1A6 4A9 55 ESE NMM 40 E HBG ASD 25 E SRN 25 SSW KVBS
20 E BPT 40 WNW HEZ 35 NNW HEZ.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 S OLV 65 SSW CKV 20 NNW SME 25 NNE OQT 20 ENE CBM 15 WSW MEI
30 SW HDC 25 NE KCMB LCH 15 E HEZ 20 SSW GWO 15 WNW GWO 45 S OLV.


01Z UPDATE

LOWER MS VALLEY---MID TO UPPER TN VALLEY

REF MPD # 778 IN EFFECT UNTIL 0320Z

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED MULTI-CELLED TSTMS CONTINUING TO EXPAND AND
INTENSIFY ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BNDRY EXTENDING ACRS
PARTS OF CNTL LA INTO CNTL MS AS COMBINATION OF INCREASING MLCAPES
AND MSTR FLUX IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM S/WV DIGGING SEWD ACRS THE
SRN HI PLAINS HELPED FUEL THE DVLPMENT.  WHILE STORMS HAVE
INTIALLY BEEN MORE DISCRETE..THEY CONTINUE TO TRANSITION INTO
ORGANIZED BANDED FEATURES OR CLUSTERS AS MSTR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AND WARM FRONT BECOMES MORE ALIGNED WITH THE MID/UPR FLOW.  PWS
ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES FROM ALONG THE LA COAST
NWD INTO NE MS/SRN TX WITH 40 TO 50 KTS 85H SSWLY FLOW.  THIS
ALONG WITH RT ENTRANCE REGION OF VERY STG 150KT UPR JET WILL LEAD
TO SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES IN THE STRONGER TSTMS THAT DVLP
OVERNIGHT.  RECENT HRRR RUNS..WHILE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO DVLP
CONVECTION..SUGGEST ONE ORGANIZED BAND OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAIN
WILL LIFT NEWD ACRS NRN MS INTO TN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
LOW PRES DVLPG ALONG THE FRONT ENHANCES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MSTR
FLUX INTO THAT REGION WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO
BE PRESENT INTO THE TN VALLEY.  THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN RECENT
HRRR RUNS TO SUPPORT A SECONARY AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN DVLPG ACRS SRN
LA AFTER AROUND 02Z WITHIN AXIS OF HIER PWS AND ML CAPES NEAR 2000
J/KG.  DESPITE INITIALLY VERY DRY CONDS THERE...THE POTNL FOR SLOW
MOVING CONVECTION WITH HI RAIN RATES COULD PRODUCE SOME SHORT TERM
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES.   AS A RESULT...HAVE
EXPANDED SLIGHT RISK AREA TO COVER AN AREA FROM PARTS OF SCNTL KY
SEWD THROUGH CNTL TN/NW AL/NE MS...INTO SRN LA.

SULLIVAN

$$





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