Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FOUS30 KWBC 261351
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
951 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017

...VALID 15Z SUN MAR 26 2017 - 12Z MON MAR 27 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 ENE BKW 10 N I16 30 WNW I16 15 NE HTS 3I2 PKB 30 SW HLG
25 WSW BVI BTP 20 ENE BTP 10 WSW FIG 25 WNW IPT 25 WNW AVP
10 NNW SEG 15 ENE AOO 25 NW W99 10 SSW EKN 15 ENE BKW.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 WNW DUA 15 ENE MLC 30 ENE RUE 10 ESE PBF 10 SSE TXK
10 NW GVT 15 WNW DUA.


15Z UPDATE...

...SE OK/NE TX INTO AR...

A MARGINAL RISK AREA WAS INTRODUCED HERE FOR POTNL ISOLD HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE RAINS DVLPG THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT.  HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD
WITH MID/UPR TROF MOVING EWD OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES WILL AID LEE
LOW DVLPMENT ACRS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE THIS AFTN WITH LOW PRES
MOVING EWD ACRS OK TOWARD WRN AR/SW MO BY MON MRNG.  WHILE LIKELY
MORE OF A SEVERE THREAT THAN HEAVY RAIN THREAT GIVEN RATHER
SHALLOW MSTR RETURN...EXPECT SOME STRONG DISCREET STORMS TO DVLP
AHEAD OF LOW AND ASSOCD DRY LINE WITH EXPECTED STRONG AFTN HEATING
SUPPORTING INTENSE UPDRAFTS WHERE CAP IS BROKEN. THE GREATER
THREAT OF PSBL HEAVIER RAINS APPEAR TO BE ACRS SE OK/NE TX INTO AR
ALONG SRN END OF BOWING PORTION OF FRONT/DRY LINE LATE SUN/SUN
NIGHT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPENING MSTR AXIS WILL BE
A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING.  SOME ISOLD 1 TO 2+" INCH SHORT TERM
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE PSBL ACRS THIS AREA.

...UPPER OH VALLEY...NW/NRN MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL OFFERS A REASONABLY SIMILAR PICTURE IN
SHEARING AN INITIALLY CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ALOFT AND ORGANIZED
SURFACE LOW NEWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS/COLD
POOL INSTABILITY WITH SYSTEM APPROACH AND DECENT LINGERING 40 KT
LLJ MOISTURE (PWS ABOVE 1") AND WAA FEED MAY SUPPORT LOCAL 1-2"
CONVECTIVE RAIN AMOUNTS/SVRL HOURS OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND
NW/NRN MID-ATLANTIC/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS AIDED BY UPSLOPE. THIS
MAY LEAD TO SOME RUNOFF ISSUES CONSIDERING RELATIVELY LOW FFG
VALUES. BASED QPF POTENTIAL FROM A COMBINATION OF THE 00 UTC ARW
AND WPC CONTINUITY.

SULLIVAN/SCHICHTEL
$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.