Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 161850
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2014

...VALID 18Z SAT AUG 16 2014 - 00Z MON AUG 18 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SE DNV 15 NW BMG 15 N HNB 10 SE EHR 20 E M30 CIR 30 NNE POF
40 WSW FAM 10 SW VIH 10 SSW JEF 30 NNE COU 15 SW UIN 20 S MQB
15 SW PIA 15 ESE BMI 20 SE DNV.

THE WELL DEFINED AND SLOW MOVING MCV NOW VICINITY OF THE IA/MO
BORDER IS HANDLED SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS THIS PERIOD..WITH ALL
TAKING IT INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID OH VALLEY BY SUNDAY
EVENING.  VERY HIGH PWS PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER ITSELF..AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES..AND A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF ADDITIONAL
VERY HIGH MOISTURE INTO IT..WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE ORGANIZED
AND LOCALLY HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINS THIS PERIOD.  KEPT
ONE RELATIVE RAINFALL MAXIMUM NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER ITSELF
FROM NEAR STL EASTWARD/EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO IL..WITH ANOTHER
MAXIMUM IN THE INFLOW AXIS OF HIGHER PWS UP THE LOWER/MID OH
VALLEY BASIN.  SOME 1-2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN AN HOUR OR SO AND
SOME 2-3+ INCH TOTALS THIS ENTIRE PERIOD COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING
PROBLEMS WITHIN THE THREAT AREA.


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NE JMS 10 WNW KGWR 35 ENE ABR 30 ESE ABR 30 SSE ABR 30 S ABR
40 WSW ABR K7L2 20 E KHZE 10 WNW N60 15 SW MOT MIB 25 ENE MOT
25 WSW DVL 20 NE JMS.

ANOTHER COMPACT AND SLOW MOVING VORT/MCV NOW VICINITY OF CENTRAL
ND ALSO HAS AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE TO WORK ON..AS PER THE 1.86
PW AT BIS THIS MORNING..AND HAS PRODUCED SOME VERY HEAVY RAINS AS
A RESULT.  LATEST GUIDANCE DOES BEGIN TO MOVE THIS SYSTEM MORE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING..WHILE ALSO SHEARING IT OUT AT THE SAME TIME.
 ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER PWS WILL STILL PERSIST IN ITS PATH..THE
WEAKENING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL LESSENING
OF THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS..ESPECIALLY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  HOWEVER..FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT..THE POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCH RAINS IN AN HOUR OR SO UNDER THE STILL SLOW
MOVING VORT FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL ND INTO
NORTHCENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN SD.

TERRY
$$




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