Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 230816
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
416 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

...VALID 12Z SUN AUG 23 2015 - 12Z MON AUG 24 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NW P28 20 ESE IAB 20 N CNU 30 SSE LXT 20 SSE SZL 15 SW AIZ
40 SSW TBN 20 W FLP 25 NNW MWT 10 ENE AQR 20 NE FSI 25 SSE GAG
15 NW P28.


...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS IN AN AREA AHEAD OF A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT.
 CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BE MOVING INTO A
REGION WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE STILL IN EXCESS OF 1.5
INCHES...INCLUDING 1.65 INCHES OBSERVED AT LAMONT OK AT 06Z.  IN
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL JET WITH A MAX SPEED OF 38 KTS WAS STILL
FEEDING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON THE LMN SOUNDING.  LAPSE RATES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WERE STILL IN THE 700 MB TO 500 MB LAYER WERE STILL
IN THE RANGE OF 6.5 TO 8.3 DEGS C PER KM...WHICH SUPPORTED CAPES
AOA 2000 J PER KG.  INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE AT 20
TO 25 KTS INTO THE MORNING WHICH WOULD ROUGHLY PARALLEL THE 850 MB
TO 700 MB MEAN FLOW...SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF
CELLS THAT WILL BE PRODUCING AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
FFG VALUES IN THE AREA ARE ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER 3
HOURS...LOCALLY LOWER IN AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL ON SATURDAY
MORNING. CONSEQUENTLY THE SSEO MEAN NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS STILL WARRANTED.

...SOUTHEAST...

THERE ARE SOME SHORT TERM CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES INTO THE MORNING.  REFER TO
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 467 FOR SPECIFICS.

BANN
$$





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