Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FOUS30 KWBC 250700
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...VALID 06Z TUE NOV 25 2014 - 12Z WED NOV 26 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 ESE SMP 50 W YKM 35 N CZK 20 N CZK 15 NW CZK 30 NW CZK
25 ENE KLS 20 E TDO 25 SE TCM 20 NE RNT 25 NE AWO 25 S CWZA
10 SE CWZA 25 SE CYHE 55 SSW CWPR 60 W OMK 20 NE SMP 10 ESE SMP.


WA CASCADES

NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
ACROSS THE WA CASCADES.  MOIST WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS PERIOD.  PW VALUES IN THIS ONSHORE
FLOW AXIS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE--- 1 TO 2+
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---THROUGH THE PERIOD SUPPORTING
THE LIKELYHOOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM THE WA
CASCADES---COAST AND OLYMPIC RANGE AND INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN ID
INTO NORTHWEST MT AND FAR NORTHWEST WY.   WITH THE VERY HEAVY
TOTALS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WA CASCADES AND HIGH SNOW
LEVELS---RUNOFF ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE HERE.

NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA

CONCERNS FOR ISOALTED RUNOFF ISSUES ARE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA IN THE AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES
EXPECTED TO STRETCH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO---ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE AND OVERALL FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS  DAY 1 IN THE AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES THAT WILL STRETCH FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA--NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTS.  THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD OF TRAINING OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL MOIST FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTH TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA---POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES

ORAVEC

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.