Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FOUS30 KWBC 240059
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
859 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

...VALID 01Z FRI JUL 24 2015 - 12Z FRI JUL 24 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


...EASTERN CAROLINAS...

01Z UPDATE...

REMOVED THE OUTLOOK AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...GIVEN THE
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS.
MIXED LAYER CAPES ACROSS EASTERN NC AND NORTHEASTERN SC CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
HAS NOW MOVED OFFSHORE.


...NORTHERN TO NORTHEAST ND INTO FAR NORTHWEST MN...

01Z UPDATE...

BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT
HRRR/EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/RAP RUNS...ALONG WITH 12Z THE
WRF-ARW/WRF-NMMB AND NSSL WRF GUIDANCE...IT WOULD APPEAR GIVEN THE
PROJECTED PROGRESSIVE (DOWNWIND) PROPAGATION...EXPECT ANY AREAS OF
POTENTIAL RUNOFF ISSUES TO BE ISOLATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE IN THE 0000-1200 UTC FRIDAY TIME
FRAME OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE UPPER MS
VALLEY.  THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL ACCENTUATE LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD THIS PERIOD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND AN
AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF ND AND
MN. THERE IS A STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS--WITH A SLIGHT RISK DEPICTED FROM
NORTHEAST TO EASTERN ND INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN MN WHERE FFG VALUES
ARE RELATIVELY LOW.  SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 1-2"+
POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS.

HURLEY
$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.