Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 291336
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
935 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...VALID 15Z SAT AUG 29 2015 - 12Z SUN AUG 30 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 ESE MTH 20 SE NQX 20 WSW KEY 25 WNW KEY 25 N NQX 35 N MTH
20 NW HWO 10 E PBI 25 E PMP 40 E HST 50 ESE MTH.


SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE EARLIER THINKING/REASONING AT
THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...


...COASTAL SOUTHEAST FLORIDA/FL KEYS...

A SLIGHT RISK AREA DEPICTED OVER COASTAL SOUTHEAST FL INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS FOR INCREASING HEAVY RAIN THREAT DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD TO THE NORTHEAST OF ERIKA.  SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY--ALONG WITH INCREASING PW VALUES TO 2.00-2.25"+.  STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ERIKA---BUT
RUNOFF ISSUES OVER URBANIZED AREAS POSSIBLE FROM PERIODS OF
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES TO THE NORTHEAST OF ERIKA.

ORAVEC/TERRY
$$





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