Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 201450
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1049 AM EDT TUE JUN 20 2017

...VALID 15Z TUE JUN 20 2017 - 12Z WED JUN 21 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSW KGUL W60 30 ENE KCRH 15 ESE ARA 20 SE MCB 25 E PIB
40 ESE JAN 25 ESE JAN JAN 30 NE JAN 20 SE GTR 15 S GAD 10 W GVL
15 WSW UZA 10 SSE RDU 20 NE 9W7 55 NE FFA 115 E FFA 90 E HSE
45 S HSE 50 ESE ILM 20 ESE CHS 20 SSW LHW 15 NE VAD 20 E CTY
20 NE BKV 35 NNE PGD 15 NE RSW 40 S APF 80 WNW KEY.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WNW HSE EWN 20 SW CPC 15 SSE MLJ 10 SE LGC 30 SSE EET
40 S TCL 30 NE NMM EET 10 NNW AHN 20 SE EQY GWW 25 ENE FFA
20 WNW HSE.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SSW QT8 15 ESE 3B6 25 N 7R3 30 SE HBG 20 SW MAI 35 E AAF
45 SE AAF 135 SSW AAF.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 N XCN 30 S P92 25 WSW MSY 10 W MSY 10 E ASD 10 NNW BIX
10 SSE BFM 20 SE NPA 55 E KVOA 60 ESE KVOA.


...15 UTC UPDATE...

NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS.

SCHICHTEL



...CNTL/ERN GULF COAST...

...SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
MOISTURE FROM POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE #3 FROM SOUTHEAST LA EWD
INTO THE FL PANHANDLE...

HEAVY TO LIKELY EXCESSIVE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND
WEST OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE #3 AS SYSTEM MOVES GRADUALLY
NWWD FROM THE CNTL GULF THROUGH WED MORNING.  SYSTEM IS QUITE
ASYMMETRICAL GIVEN THE SLY SHEAR TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LOW TO
ITS WEST..WITH INCREASING CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  MODELS GENL AGREE ON BRINGING DEEP
SURGE OF TROPICAL MSTR NWD INTO THE CNTL GULF COAST AREA
ESPECIALLY FROM SE LA EWD INTO SRN MS/SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE
REGION THIS PD WITH PWS INCREASING TO OVER 2.5".  THE DEEPER MEAN
LAYERED ESELY FLOW`S NWD PROGRESSION WILL LIMITED BY WEAK E/W
RIDGING AT 5H EXTENDING ACRS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL
LIKELY HELP MAINTAIN THE MORE ACTIVE TROPICAL RAIN BANDS ACRS SE
LA INTO SRN MS/SW AL GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS WILL GIVE THE POTENTIAL THERE FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE DAY 1 PD OF 4 TO 6+". MANUAL
QPF WAS BASED ON BEST MODEL FIT TO LATEST NHC TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH
MAINTAIN PERSISTENT DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL INFLOW INTO THE CNTL
GULF COAST.


...SE U.S NEWD INTO ERN NC...

...SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS FROM CENTRAL AL ENEWD INTO
EASTERN NC...

HEAVY RAIN SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH DEEP LAYERED
TROPICAL MSTR CIRCULATING NWD/NEWD BETWEEN POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE #3 OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC
INTERACTING WITH STALLING AND WEAKENING FRONT FROM THE CAROLINAS
SWWD INTO MS.  THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME INTENSE AND VERY SLOW
MOVING HEAVY RAINS THIS PD ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BNDRY.   MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYERED MSTR PERSISTING AND WHILE
CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT HEATING SOME TODAY...MODELS FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME TALL SKINNY CAPES DURING THE AFTN/EVENING ACRS THE
AREA.  THIS ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT RT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
AND GENERAL DEEP LAYERED UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...WILL LEAD TO POTNL
SLOW MOVING/TRAINING CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHORT TERM RAIN
RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AND ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OVER 4 INCHES
GIVEN THE DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS.


SULLIVAN

$$




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