Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 190035
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
734 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2017

...VALID 01Z SUN FEB 19 2017 - 12Z SUN FEB 19 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
90 SE YUM 45 E YUM 55 E BLH 65 NW LUF 25 SW PRC 10 N PRC
25 NNE PRC 30 E PRC 50 NE FFZ 55 S SOW 30 NNE SAD 35 NE SAD
45 NW SVC 35 WNW SVC 15 E SAD 25 WNW SAD 55 ESE IWA 35 ESE IWA
10 S CHD 20 WNW CGZ 20 ENE GBN 20 ESE GBN 35 SE GBN 45 SE GBN
40 W TUS 35 SW TUS 25 W OLS 50 SW OLS 70 SW OLS.


...SOUTHWESTERN U.S...

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRACKING AT LOW LATITUDE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO WILL SUPPORT SYNOPTICALLY FORCED WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT
IN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL
OCCUR WITHIN SOUTHERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
SOUTH FACE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. ADDITIONALLY...SOME WEAK UPRIGHT
INSTABILITY MAY ENHANCE RAIN RATES OVER FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA IN
THE DESERT AREAS...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION MAY BE
QUITE LIMITED BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE. WHILE THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL PRODUCE SURFACE RUNOFF...THE RATES OBSERVED
THUS FAR HAVE BEEN VERY TOLERABLE. HOURLY RATES ARE NOT LIKELY TO
EXCEED ABOUT 0.40 INCHES...AND OVERNIGHT TOTALS WILL TOP ONE INCH
IN ONLY THE MOST FAVORED SOUTH FACING TERRAIN. WE HAVE DOWNGRADED
BY REMOVING THE SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A MARGINAL RISK...WITH SOME IMPACTS POSSIBLE FOR THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS.

BURKE

$$





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