Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 220723
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
320 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...VALID 12Z FRI JUL 22 2016 - 12Z SAT JUL 23 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNE K9D7 15 ESE FFM 20 W VVV 40 W ABR 45 ENE HEI CYEN
20 NNE K9D7.


NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ND AND IA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE ND ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO BE STRONGER/BETTER DEVELOPED DUE TO STRONGER DYNAMICS
(PARTICULARLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND INSTABILITY OF 3000-5000 J/KG
PER THE 21Z SREF MEAN FORECAST) BEING AVAILABLE AS IT RIDES ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CAPPING INVERSION/CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGE.  THE GALVEZ-DAVISON INSTABILITY INDEX IMPLIES SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS BEING POSSIBLE ACROSS ND, PARTICULARLY FROM
THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE DEGREE OF
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS ND SHOULD ALLOW
FOR FORWARD PROPAGATION, BUT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE
FAIRLY LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ND.  WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING PAST 1.75", HOURLY RAIN RATES
COULD EXCEED 2" WHERE CELLS MERGE AND/OR TRAIN OR WHERE
MESOCYCLONES/MCVS DEVELOP WITHIN THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS ND FROM PREVIOUS DAYS HERE.
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-4" ARE CONSIDERED POSSIBLE.

UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE COMPLEX
EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST IA KEPT THE RISK AT SEE TEXT/MARGINAL LEVELS.

ROTH
$$





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