Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 111357
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
956 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

...VALID 15Z THU SEP 11 2014 - 12Z FRI SEP 12 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 SSE MMCS 35 SW GDP 20 ENE GDP 10 N CNM 25 ENE ATS 55 ENE ROW
40 WSW LBB 45 S LBB 20 NE BPG 35 SSW SWW 45 NNE JCT 25 NW T82
20 NW ERV 25 SSW E29 40 ENE 6R6 40 WNW 6R6 30 S MRF 55 SSW MRF
90 WSW MRF 85 SSE MMCS 55 SSE MMCS.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 WNW LLQ 30 WNW ELD 20 SSW TXK 10 NNE OSA 15 ENE SLR 15 N SLR
10 WSW PRX 15 N PRX 45 WNW DEQ 20 S RKR 25 N MWT 20 WNW LZK
10 SSE SRC 15 NW NQA 25 NNE MKL 55 NE MKL 40 SW CKV 30 S CKV
30 WSW BNA 45 SW BNA 40 NNE MSL 15 WNW MSL 30 W TUP 40 NNW GWO
40 NNW GLH 15 WNW LLQ.

PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN
VALLEY

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.  THE CONCERNS
FOR HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE
AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES THAT WILL STRETCH FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THESE AREAS.  FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS
IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS AND POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVEMENT AND/OR
TRAINING OF CELLS IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY---WITH
THE HEAVY RAIN FOCUS THEN SHIFTING MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.  IN AREAS OF
TRAINING--ISOLATED 1-2+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLE IN AN HOUR
OR TWO..WITH ISOLATED GREATER THAN 3 INCH AMOUNTS THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD POSSIBLE.

TERRY
$$





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