Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 160745
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
344 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017

...VALID 12Z SAT SEP 16 2017 - 12Z SUN SEP 17 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
MSP 10 S OWA MCW 10 WSW CAV 25 W FOD 25 NNW DNS OLU 10 NNE GRI
25 ESE ODX 15 WNW YKN 35 NW FSD 15 E ATY 8D3 20 ENE KGWR
20 SSE KBAC 35 NE KBAC 20 NW CWTX 10 NNE CWCH 35 N CKC 10 N CKC
10 WNW TWM COQ 10 WSW COQ MSP.


...MID-UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE S-CENTRAL PLAINS...

EJECTING WRN US TROUGH ENERGY AND AMPLE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS
WILL PUNCH NEWD ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL US DAY1. A NARROW BUT DEEP
LEAD MOISTURE AXIS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POOLED IN EXCESS
OF 1.5" WILL CONTINUE TO FEED NEWD TO INTERACT WITH A SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM. FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET
STREAK DYNAMICS AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HEAVY CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS FROM THE MID-UPPER
MS VALLEY STATES SWWD TO THE S-CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY SUPPORTS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH
ANY CELLS THAT LINGER/TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA TO PRODUCE A QUICK
COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN. FFG VALUES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS MOST
OF THE BROAD THREAT REGION DEPICTED TO LIMIT RISK...WITH AN
EXCEPTION OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN WHERE RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE
OCCURRED.

SCHICHTEL



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