Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 250815
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
415 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...VALID 12Z TUE AUG 25 2015 - 12Z WED AUG 26 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...SOUTHWEST U.S...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE BUILDING SLOWLY NWD FROM BAJA/NW MEX AROUND WRN
PERIPHERY OF UPR HIGH OVER CO/NM REGION WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE
THREAT OF SHWERS AND TSTMS ACRS PARTS OF SRN CA/AZ INTO THE CNTL
GT BASIN.  MODELS SHOW WEAK S/WV ENERGY LIFTING NWD FROM WRN MEX
AS WELL AS HIER LEVEL ENERGY WORKING NEWD FROM OFF THE CA COAST
THIS MORNING THAT SHOULD ADVANCE INTO PARTS OF NV/UT BY WED MRNG.
WHILE MODELS GENLY SHOW SIMILARITIES HERE WITH LARGE SCALE MASS
FIELD DETAILS...MODEL QPFS SHOW SOME FAIRLY LARGE DETAIL
DIFFERENCE WITH PLACEMENT MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO NARROW DOWN ANY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT OVER THIS REGION.   HI RES MODEL
CONSENSUS DOES SHOW POTNL FOR LOCAL 3 HR AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1.5
INCHES ESPECIALLY THROUGH PARTS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AREA WHERE
CONFLUENT SLY 85-7H FLOW WOULD FAVOR SOME ENHANCED UPSLOPE FORCING
INTO THE AREA THRU EARLY TUES EVENING PD BEFORE 7H TROF AXIS LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE WITH RICH MONSOON MOISTURE LIFTING
NWD ACRS AZ/SRN CA AND PARTS OF WRN NM AND RELATIVELY WEAK
FLOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTNL FOR SOME ISOLD SLOW MOVING TSTM
CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAINS


SULLIVAN
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