Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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603
FOUS30 KWBC 301408
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1008 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

...VALID 15Z SAT APR 30 2016 - 12Z SUN MAY 01 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 WSW 1A6 15 S EKQ 30 ESE GLW 35 SE FTK 20 W FFT 30 S CVG
50 NW HTS 15 NNW 3I2 10 S PKB 10 NW CKB 15 WSW 2G4 15 WSW CBE
15 NE W99 25 S W99 HSP 20 SE LWB 20 NNE BCB 10 N MWK SVH
15 N EHO FQD 25 NNW FQD 15 SW TNB 15 WNW TNB 20 WSW TRI
25 SE 1A6 30 WSW 1A6.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WSW DRI 15 ENE POE 35 NNE ESF 25 S TVR 40 NNE MCB 20 ENE HBG
10 WNW MOB 15 NNE KVKY 20 S KMIS 10 ENE S58 20 SW KEIR
15 ENE KEHC 20 NW KEHC 30 WSW KCRH KXIH 35 NNE GLS 30 S JAS
20 WSW DRI.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
KVNP 20 NW KVNP 30 WSW LFT 20 WNW LFT 35 NNE LFT 25 NNW BTR
15 N BTR 15 ENE BTR 25 SE BTR 30 NNE 7R3 PTN 25 W P92 KVNP.


FAR SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY

THE TIMING OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE ORGANIZED AREA OF
CONVECTION DIFFERS AS THE BANDS PROGRESS ACROSS LA. WHILE OVERALL
INCREASED PROGRESSION EXPECTED THIS PERIOD---TRAINING OF CELLS IS
POSSIBLE...AND/OR REDEVELOPMENT OF CELLS/SMALL CLUSTERS OF CELLS.
SOUTHERN LA REMAINS DEPICTED WITH A MODERATE RISK--WITH SHORT TERM
PRECIP TOTALS OF 2"+ POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF TRAINING(OBSERVED AT
LAKE CHARLES LA AT 13Z).  THE EXCESSIVE THREAT IS SHOWN INTO
SOUTHERN MS TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE FASTER TIMING.  THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE THREAT AREA IN MS WAS TRIMMED SOUTH AS SFC DEWPOINTS
ARE LOWER THAN IN COASTAL AREAS PLUS THE MIXED LAYER CALE VALUES
ARE LOWER.  THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUITY NOT SHOWING PARTICULARLY
HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION RESULTS IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A MARGINAL RISK.

OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THE BEST
UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  A SLIGHT RISK
AREA WAS DEPICTED OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TO COVER THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL QPF DETAILS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IN A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS.  THE WESTERN EDGE FO THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS MADE TO TRIM WESTERN ND CENTRAL KY WHERE
ONGOING SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZING INTO
A SUSTAINED HEAVY RAIN CLUSTER...PLUS THE RECENT RUNS THE OF THE
HIGH RES RAPID RESPONSE MODELS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RE-DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NSSL WRF AND WRF ARW SHOW BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IN EASTERN
KY ACROSS MUCH OF WV...SO A SLIGHT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THESE
AREAS.  WHILE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS
THESE AREAS---LOW FFG VALUES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES
WHERE CONVECTION PERSISTS---WITH SHORT TERM 1-1.5"+ PRECIP TOTALS
POSSIBLE.

PETERSEN
$$





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