Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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794
FOUS30 KWBC 271434
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1034 AM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

...VALID 15Z MON MAR 27 2017 - 12Z TUE MAR 28 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SE MKL 15 S MKL 10 NNW DYR 30 S CIR 10 S PAH 30 E M30
30 SSW OWB 25 WNW SDF 25 ESE GEZ 35 WNW WMO FFO 20 ENE ILN
45 SE ILN 35 W HTS 25 W JKL 25 SE SME 15 NNE CSV 40 NW CHA
35 NE MDQ 20 NW MDQ 25 N MSL 40 SE MKL.


...TN VALLEY NEWD TO THE MID OH VALLEY...

1500 UTC UPDATE...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/FORECAST REASONING BELOW...

MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS A SIMILAR IDEA OF SHEARING A CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AND WAVY SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM
NEWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY DAY1. THE
COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WITH SYSTEM
APPROACH AND 35KT SWRLY LLJ MOISTURE/WAA FEED MAY SUPPORT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY 1-3" DOWNPOURS AS FUELED BY ENHANCED PWS...WITH MAX
POTENTIAL SHIFTING ACROSS KY/TN AND VICINITY. THIS MAY LEAD TO
SOME RUNOFF ISSUES BASED ON RELAXED FFG VALUES AND CONVECTIVE QPF
POTENTIAL AS PER A COMBINATION OF THE REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED
12/00 UTC ARW...12 UTC SSEO MEAN AND WPC CONTINUITY.

HURLEY/SCHICHTEL
$$





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