Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 041402
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
902 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

...VALID 15Z WED MAR 04 2015 - 12Z THU MAR 05 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNW SHD 30 NNE LWB 20 ENE BKW 15 NNW BLF 20 ENE LNP
15 SW LNP 15 WSW 1A6 30 S EKQ 35 SSE GLW 25 SSE BWG 20 ENE CKV
25 WSW HOP 25 ENE DYR 15 NNE BYH 25 NW BYH 30 ENE ARG 25 SW POF
15 WSW POF POF 20 ENE POF 10 W CIR 10 ENE M30 15 S OWB
30 WSW FTK LOU 35 NNW FFT 20 SE LUK 15 SW UNI 30 ENE PKB
10 N MGW 20 NE 2G4 25 W MRB 20 NNW SHD.


MADE SOME MODEST CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE..MAINLY TO ADD
TO THE AREA VICINITY OF THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVER
VALLEYS..WHERE SOME
LOWER FF GUIDANCE VALUES EXIST.  THIS WILL BE A FLUID
SITUATION..WITH THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS CHANGING TO FROZEN
PRECIPITATION EITHER VERY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

UNTIL THE CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION..THE LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUING IN ADVANCE OF THE POSITIVE TILTED
MID/UPPER TROF EJECTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND SOME HEAVY TO POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAINLY IN THE OH
RIVER VALLEY.  THIS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH A MOIST
H85 SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND POOLING OF MOISTURE OF AOA
1.25 INCH PWS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING ARCTIC COLD FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME TRAINING/REPEAT CELL ACTIVITY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
LOCALIZED SHORT-TERM RUNOFF ISSUES OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT MOIST CONDITIONS (WITH 6 HOURLY FFG OVER MANY AREAS
AROUND OR LESS THAN 1 INCH").

TERRY


$$





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