Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 172013
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
413 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...VALID 21Z SUN JUL 17 2016 - 12Z MON JUL 18 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 ESE EBS 25 WNW CWI 35 S VPZ 15 SSW ILN 25 WNW SDF 20 E HNB
10 NNW HSB ALN 20 W UIN 35 NNE CDJ 25 NNE STJ FNB 15 W AFK CBF
15 WNW CIN 15 ESE EBS.


MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE AND HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THIS AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  SHORT TERM RADAR TRENDS SHOW INCREASING COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER IA INTO FAR ERN NEB AND NORTHWEST KS.
HOWEVER, A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY RESIDES IN MO/SOUTHERN IL,
WITH MLCAPES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE.  AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO THIS REGION AND CONVERGENT
INFLOW OF 20-30 KTS IS FOCUSED INTO THE AREA.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TRAVERSING THE SAME AREA, WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF CELL TRAINING.  ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ~15 KTS PER THE FORWARD
PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE VECTORS.  INTENSE RAINFALL RATES DURING THE
EVENING, TO THE TUNE OF 2.5" AN HOUR, ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS UPDATE WERE MADE
TO FRESHEN THE WORDING AND ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS IN INSTABILITY AND
THE LATEST PRECIPITATION FORECAST.

ROTH/BANN
$$





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