Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 180627
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
226 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...VALID 06Z FRI APR 18 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 19 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 S AAF 20 SW PAM 15 SSE DTS 20 NNW CEW 25 W TOI 15 WSW OPN
30 WNW MLJ 15 SW HQU 10 ENE AGS 10 S OGB 30 N CHS 35 ESE CHS
60 E HXD 65 E SSI 35 E NRB 10 NNE GNV 20 SSW CTY 60 SW CTY
60 SE AAF 25 SE AAF 15 S AAF.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SE TLH 10 NNW AAF PFN 20 ENE VPS 25 NE CEW 15 NNE DHN
25 N 11J 35 N ABY 30 WNW DQH 20 SSW TBR 20 NNW NBC 20 E NBC
30 NE BQK 25 S SSI 10 NW NRB 15 NW JAX 25 SSE VLD 10 SE TLH.


SOUTHEAST U.S...

A VERY WET TO PSBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO
UNFOLD ACRS THE SE ON FRI THRU SAT AS S/WV ENERGY DROPPING SEWD
FROM THE CNTL U.S. GRADUALLY CLOSES OFF OVER THE SE U.S.  OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE..DEEP SUBROPICAL MSTR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DRAWN NW FROM THE ERN GULF AHEAD OF DVLPG SFC LOW THAT IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK ENEWD ALONG WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT ACRS NRN FL ON FRI.
 PWS OF UP TO 2.0 INCHES WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO 3 STDS ABOVE
NORMAL WILL BE FUNNELED INTO THE ERN GULF COAST AND SE STATES WITH
VERY CONVERGENT 85H FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE SFC LOW.  AS MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF...EXPECTED STGR COMMA HEAD PCPN BAND TO DVLP TO THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW WHILE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINS TEND TO TRACK
ENEWD ACRS NRN FL THROUGH ERN GA AND COASTAL SC.  THE COMBO OF
UNSEASONABLY HI MSTR..SLOW MOVEMENT..INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN WIDEPSREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
ACRS MUCH OF NRN FL INTO SE AL..MOST OF CNTL/SRN GA..SC..AND SRN
NC.  STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACRS THIS AREA WILL RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLD HEAVIER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 6 INCHES LIKELY
IN STGR SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE BANDS.   THE GFS CONTINUED TO BE A
BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN MODEL CONSENSUS..WHILE A BLEND OF THE
NAM..EC..AND CANADIAN MASS FIELDS WERE GENLY IN AGREEMENT WITH ONE
ANOTHER TAKING MID LEVEL LOW ACRS THE FL PANHANDLE REGION INTO SW
GA BY SAT MRNG.  RELIED HEAVILIY ON THE LATTER ALONG WITH HIGH RES
WRF ARW RUN. THE MDT RISK AREA WAS BASED ON WHERE GREATEST THREAT
OF HEAVIER SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE RAINS AND PSBL RUNOFF ISSUES MAY
DVLP.

SULLIVAN
$$





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