Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 250743
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

...VALID 12Z SAT JUL 25 2015 - 12Z SUN JUL 26 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 WSW OCF 15 ESE BKV 20 NW PGD 25 SSW SRQ 55 W PIE 95 WNW PIE
40 SW CTY 25 WSW OCF.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SSW MQB 40 SW UIN 30 ENE MCI 10 WNW CNK 60 N GCK 35 S ITR
25 NNE ITR 25 SE ODX 15 S DNS 10 W MUT 20 SSW MQB.


SOUTHWEST FLORIDA

THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD.
THE AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES THAT HAS BEEN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THIS PERIOD ACROSS
NORTHERN TO CENTRAL FLORIDA.  THIS SHOULD FOCUS THE AXIS OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS.  ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MOISTURE FLUX FROM WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IN AN AXIS OF
2.25"+ PW VALUES WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO ISOLATED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS---FOCUSING ON SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FROM
TAMPA SOUTHWARD.  THERE IS MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A MAX AXIS OVER
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS PERIOD---BUT MORE SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO
QPF AMOUNTS INLAND ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA.  WHILE
FFG VALUES ARE HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA---INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES---ESPECIALLY OVER URBANIZED AREAS---WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES.

LOWER MO VALLEY

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER MO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH
DETAILS OF THE MAX QPF AXIS AS THERE IS A WIDESPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS.  THE FARTHER SOUTHERN QPF AXES OF THE GFS AND SEVERAL
OF THE HI RES MODELS WERE FAVORED.   WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES/ENHANCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVES---ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE CONVECTION DOES ORGANIZE---ESPECIALLY IF THIS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MOVES OVER AREAS THAT ARE RECEIVING HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EARLY THIS MORNING.

ORAVEC
$$





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