Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 260132
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
931 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

...VALID 03Z TUE AUG 26 2014 - 00Z WED AUG 27 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNE BVN 20 SE CAV 10 NNW CID 15 NW OTM 40 NNE MHK 10 NNE HYS
40 N LAA 30 E COS 25 NNW AKO 20 WNW LBF 20 NNE BVN.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 E LVS 30 SSE CQC 40 W ATS 40 SE ALM 20 S ALM 45 NNW HMN
45 S DMN 70 SSE OLS 85 WSW OLS 50 ESE BLH 20 SW FLG 50 NNW INW
20 NNE RQE 25 ESE FMN 35 E TEX 35 ESE MYP 20 SE VTP 20 E LVS.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 W SOW 45 E SJN 50 N TCS 20 N DMN 25 NE SAD 35 WNW SAD
25 SE CGZ CHD 30 W SOW.


...SOUTHWEST...

CONVECTION OVER AZ AND NM FORMED IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPES
RUNNING AROUND 1000 J PER KG...MODEST FLOW AT THE STEERING
LEVELS...AND INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5
INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AZ.  A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH AND FAVORABLE PRE TROUGH FORCING IN THE FORM OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE SHOULD COMBINE FOR A RISK OF FLASH FLOOD RISK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.  THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TENDED TO MAXIMIZE
THE INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE HEADING INTO AN
EARLY DAY DIURNAL MIN ON TUE MORNING.  FORECASTED AREAL AVERAGE
RAIFNALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WERE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MDT RISK AREA.


...COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

ONLY MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE SLIGHT
RISK ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.  00Z UPPER AIR OBS GENERALLY
INDICATED THAT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WAS EVOLVING FAIRLY CLOSELY TO
THE MODEL SOLNS FROM THE 25/12Z AND 25/18Z PRODUCTION CYCLES.
OBSERVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE A BIT LOWER THAN
FORECASTED...GENERALLY IN THE 1.3 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE VS THE MODELS
1.75 INCHES OR SO BY THIS POINT.  EVEN SO...STILL THINK THE
FORMATION OF A SOUTHWESTERLY JET MOVING UP AND OVER A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN KS ABLE TO FEED MOISTURE INTO ANY
STORMS WHICH FORM NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  MODEL QPFS REMAINED IN
REASONABLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON AN AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINS FROM PARTS
OF NE INTO WESTERN IA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE.

BANN

$$




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