Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
048
FOUS30 KWBC 200053
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
851 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

...VALID 01Z TUE JUN 20 2017 - 12Z TUE JUN 20 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
80 SE WAL 15 SE 9W7 15 N EWN 20 SSW DPL 30 E FLO 30 E OGB
20 NNW SAV 20 W BQK 10 SSE NIP 20 NE OCF 15 SSW TIX 20 W SUA
20 WNW OPF 40 E APF 10 WNW SRQ 50 SSW CTY 45 ESE AAF 45 SW PAM
VPS 10 ESE TOI 30 SW MGM 30 NNW MOB 25 NW MOB AUD 7R3 20 SSE ACP
10 W DRI 25 WNW LFK 10 SSW 4F4 45 W MLU 15 NE JAN 20 WNW EET
10 E FQD 15 SSE ADW 10 SSE SWF 10 NE VSF 10 NW BML 35 SE CWHV
30 ESE CWST 45 NE CERM 50 E PQI 45 NNW CWZF 10 WNW CWZF
25 NNE CWSS 40 SE BHB.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 W CON 10 WSW PSM 10 NNE LWM OWD 15 S HWV 10 NE WAL
10 SSE HRJ 20 SSE 45J 15 ESE DAN 30 ENE FVX RJD HPN 15 W CON.


...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LINGERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN U.S....


...NEW ENGLAND TO MID ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

THE BIGGEST CHANGE MADE TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK WAS TO
TRIM THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK AREAS
FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY TO THE EAST DURING THE
EVENING.  THE MODELS...HIGH RESOLUTION OR GLOBAL MODELS...ALL
ALLOW FOR SOME RAINFALL TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
BUT NOT WITH THE INTENSITY TO PRODUCE ANY PROBLEMS.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY AN AIRMASS OF NEARLY 2
INCHES AND FAIRLY UNIFORM LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH COULD STILL LEAD TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THAT THE AREAS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE TRANSLATING OFFSHORE FAIRLY
QUICKLY...THUS THINKING IS THAT THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WILL BE TAPERING OFF QUICKLY DURING THE LATE EVENING OR EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

...REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE GULF COAST AND
FLORIDA...

PERSISTENT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE WEST COAST OF FL IN A
REGION OF PERSISTENT DEEP LAYERED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT.  THERE IS ENOUGH CONVECTION IN THIS
AREA TO SET UP THE SCENARIO OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
MOVING OVER THE SAME PLACE...AT LEAST INTO LATE EVENING PER A
COUPLE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS.

TO THE NORTH...THERE WAS A NARROW AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN GA TOWARDS SOUTHERN MS.  CELL MOTION SHOULD REMAIN
SLOW GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY OF A COL IN THE FLOW.  THE WEAK FLOW
SUGGESTS THAT CELLS WILL TEND TO DEVELOP...RAIN AND DISSIPATE
FAIRLY QUICKLY.  WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...THERE COULD BE
ISOLATED PROBLEMS WITH RUN OFF.  THINKING IS THAT THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BANN

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.