Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 190056
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
853 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016

...VALID 01Z THU MAY 19 2016 - 12Z THU MAY 19 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 W MMMA 60 NE MMMY 70 SSW MMPG 75 SSW 6R6 35 N E38 10 S INK
45 WSW BWD 15 ESE UVA 10 WSW ALI 25 W KMIU 15 WSW KOPM
40 ESE BRO 20 W MMMA.



WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES IS MAKING ITS WAY
EASTWARD.  THE MODELS HAVE BEEN KEYING ON INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT OVER TX IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE.  LOW-LEVEL INFLOW
RAMPS UP TOWARDS 25 KTS WHICH SHOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
1000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN TX.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES MOVE UP INTO THE 1.25-2" RANGE.  SOME OF THESE STORMS
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  STORMS ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD FORWARD PROPAGATE TO THE EAST AT 20-25 KTS, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING SHOULD CELLS TRAIN/MERGE OR IF CONVECTION
EVOLVES INTO A WAVY QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PATTERN WHICH
SOMETIMES LEADS TO SHORT PERIODS OF CELL TRAINING.


FLORIDA PENINSULA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
CONVECTION ACROSS FL HAS MIGRATED NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE STATE, DOWNWIND OF A POOL OF 1500+ J/KG MLCAPE.  THE
12Z/18Z SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES SHOWED SOME SPOTS PEAKING
AROUND 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL 3" OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS
THROUGH 03Z.  HOWEVER, THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS AROUND AS LATE AS 06Z.  AS NO
BROAD SCALE THREAT HAS MATERIALIZED SO FAR, DECIDED TO DOWNGRADE
THE THREAT IN THIS AREA TO THAT OF MARGINAL/SEE TEXT.

ROTH
$$





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