Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 110823
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
322 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...VALID 12Z WED JAN 11 2017 - 12Z THU JAN 12 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 ENE SCK 20 SSE AUN 15 E AUN 20 E AUN 35 SW TVL 50 SSW TVL
55 NE MCE 40 WSW MMH 35 ENE FAT 40 NE VIS 20 ENE PTV 25 ESE PTV
35 ESE PTV 20 WNW IYK 25 W IYK 25 ENE BFL 20 E BFL 30 WNW MHV
SDB 15 S PMD 20 N ONT 20 NNE RIV 15 E RIV 10 ENE RIV RAL POC EMT
VNY 10 NNW 3A6 20 WNW 3A6 20 N CMA 20 NNW CMA 25 NNW OXR
15 ENE SBA 10 NNE SBA 25 NNW SBA 25 ESE SMX 30 N SBA 30 NNE SBA
40 WNW SDB 30 WNW SDB 25 NW SDB 20 SSE BFL 10 ESE BFL BFL
10 SSE PTV 15 N PTV 20 NNE VIS 20 N FAT 25 ENE MCE 30 NE MOD
35 ENE SCK.


GENERALLY COMPATABLE MODELS BLEND PRETTY WELL FROM LATEST
SATELLITE/BLENDED TPW TRENDS THAT SHOW A GRADUALLY DIMINSIHING AND
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF MAIN MOISTURE PLUME THAT HAS PROVED TO BE AN
EFFICIENT PCPN PRODUCER ACROSS MUCH OF CA. THE AXIS OF ABOVE
AVERAGE PW VALUES AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN ENHANCED BY IMPULSE
PASSAGE INLAND/JET AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFFSHORE CA THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING HEAVY
PRECIP AND SOME RUNOFF THREAT THROUGH PARTS OF THE S-CENTRAL
SIERRA AND COASTAL RANGES OF SRN CA WHERE SEVERAL ADDITIONAL
INCHES OF PCPN ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES. HEAVY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALSO REMAIN LIKELY AT LOWERED ELEVATIONS THROUGH
THE SIERRA NEAR/OUTSIDE THE ELONGATED WPC MARGINAL THREAT AREA.

SCHICHTEL
$$





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