Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FOUS30 KWBC 232129
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
528 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017

...VALID 2128Z FRI JUN 23 2017 - 12Z SAT JUN 24 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 W MVN 10 NW AID 15 NNW DKK 10 S CXKE 15 SW CYMX 20 NW CYSC
30 SSE CWER 35 S CWYQ 30 SSW CZCR 25 E HUL 15 E MWN BAF
35 SSE MJX 25 S LKU 10 NNE MRN 10 S 27A 30 NE GZH 15 SE NBG
15 ESE KVNP 15 SSE DRI 15 NW LFK 30 ESE SJT 25 WSW ODO 45 E ROW
45 N SNK LTS CQB FLP 15 W MVN.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SW RUE 15 SW CIR BAK 15 WSW YNG 40 WNW IPT 15 N MUI
15 ESE MRB 10 W CHO BCB 25 SSE TRI 10 SW WDR 30 NNW GZH ASD
25 NNE LFT IER 20 NE JSO 25 SE SEP 40 SSW RPH 15 SSW SPS
20 NNW AQR 10 SW RUE.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NE BML 15 N LEB 15 NNW GFL 20 SE GTB 10 SSE OGS CWBZ
10 ESE CWHY 45 SE CWIG 15 NNE CERM 25 ESE CWIY 10 NNE GNR
25 NE BML.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SW TZR 25 WSW BVI 20 NNW IDI 10 N AOO 15 ENE CBE 20 SE EKN
10 NNW I16 30 SSE EKQ 15 E GLW 20 WNW FFT 20 SW TZR.


2100 UTC UPDATE...

REFINED THE DAY 1 ERO TO PARE DOWN THE "MODERATE" RISK AREA TO
INCORPORATE AREAS ALONG AND DOWNSTREAM OF CINDY`S REMNANT
CIRCULATION (MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY)...WHERE ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY
FLARED UP NICELY OWING TO THE HIGHLY-FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT (SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW TO 40 KTS...ANOMALOUS
PW VALUES AOA 2.00"...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY --
500-1000 J/KG). MEANWHILE...HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA FARTHER EAST TO CAPTURE MORE OF THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...ALONG
WITH THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY BASED ON THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE INFLUX OF ANOMALOUS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THIS REGION...COINCIDENT WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND
STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER HEIGHT
FALLS/JET STREAK...CONTINUES TO GENERATE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT TRAINING CHARACTERISTICS THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS DELINEATED
OVER AN AREA WHERE THE 1-3 FFG VALUES WERE COMPARATIVELY LOWER.

HURLEY


15 UTC UPDATE...

ADJUSTED THE PREVIOUS EXPANSIVE MODERATE AND SURROUNDING
SLIGHT/MARGINAL DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS FOR LATEST RADAR
AND HRRR TRENDS THAT ACCOUNT FOR SYSTEM/MAIN PCPN AXIS
PROGRESSION/EVOLUTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS SINCE THE WPC 09 UTC
ISSUANCE. THIS ALSO TAKES INTO ACCOUNT WPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
#380 THAT WAS JUST ISSUED FOR THE OH VALLEY STATES.

SCHICHTEL


...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTH INTO TN/OH VALLEYS
AND NORTHERN MID-ATL/NORTHEAST...

THE COMBINATION OF DECAYING CINDY LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OR UP THE
OH RIVER TOWARD THE NRN MID-ATL STATES AND MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES ALONG THE ACTIVE UPPER WESTERLIES WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY. CINDY IS
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE FROM EAST CENTRAL AR TO NORTHERN KY TO
MD/NORTHERN VA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS, WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN
AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING PART OF THE PROGRESSIVE JET. MEANWHILE, AN
ACTIVE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL
SWEEP FROM THE GREAT LAKES/WESTERN OH VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST,
WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE SOUTH/LOWER MS
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. GFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES SUGGEST
INVOF CINDY AND OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PWS 2.5 TO 3 TIMES
ABOVE AVG, WHILE REACHING THE 95TH-99TH PERCENTILE. THIS ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE CONTENT INTERACTING WITH EACH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE
SHOULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC KEPT CONTINUITY AND
CONTINUED EXTENDED SLIGHT AND MODERATE THREATS OF EXCESSIVE RAIN.
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS AND HI-RES SUITE OF NAM
CONEST/ARW/NMMB, A MODERATE THREAT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN
AR/NORTHERN LA INTO NWRN MS/WRN TN AND UP THE OH RIVER FROM
SOUTHERN IL AND IN, A LARGE PART OF KY AND SOUTHERN OH/NORTHERN WV
AND SWRN PA. A SLIGHT WILL SURROUND THE MODERATE AND STRETCH FROM
THE NORTHERN TX/SOUTHERN OK BORDER TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES OF LA/MS AND NORTHERN AL AND UP INTO TN/NORTHERN GA, ALMOST
ALL THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATL REGION. WITHIN THE TWO
AREAS, WPC WENT WITH 1-4 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER NUMBERS OF AS MUCH AS 5-8 INCHES PER LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE. SOME OF THESE SPOTS ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE
TROPICAL RAINS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND FFG NUMBERS ARE
EXTREMELY LOW. A HIGH THREAT WAS CONTEMPLATED BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT, THOUGH PARTS OF SERN/EASTERN AR AND
NORTHERN LA/NWRN MS AT THE MOMENT ARE A CONCERN ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN IL/IN AND A LARGE PART OF KY LATER.

FOR MORE ON CINDY...PLEASE REFER TO ADVISORIES FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER.


MUSHER

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.