Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 160154
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
953 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

...VALID 03Z TUE SEP 16 2014 - 00Z WED SEP 17 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


...SOUTHEAST...

MAINTAINED A "SEE TEXT" ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... AS GUIDANCE VARIES
ON WHETHER ANY ORGANIZATION OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
DAY. STILL SEE AN ISOLATED THREAT THIS EVENING NEAR THE MAIN LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS... POSSIBLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GA.
OTHERWISE THE SAME FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS IN PLACE... A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH PW VALUES AOA 2.00" AND STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING FOR CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING PULSE STORMS FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.


...SOUTHWEST...

THE INITIAL ANOMALOUS SURGE OR PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND MID TO
HIGH LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM PAC TROPICAL ENTITY ODILE WILL BEGIN TO
REACH AZ/NM FOR PREDECESSOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. THE GUIDANCE
CLEARLY SHOWS A WEST TO EAST VORT LOBE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH SERN
AZ/SWRN NM AND THIS IS THE LOCATION FOR POSSIBLY ENHANCED DIURNAL
OROGRAPHIC QPF AND LOCAL RUNOFF ISSUES. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE OF A QPF/EXCESSIVE RAIN ISSUE FOR
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SWRN QUAD OF THE COUNTRY.

MUSHER/HURLEY
$$




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