Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 011417
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1016 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

...VALID 15Z WED JUL 01 2015 - 12Z THU JUL 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 N RUE 55 ENE CNU 10 ESE LWC 25 E STJ 25 NNW COU 10 SW ENL
25 N BWG 25 NNE 1A6 TRI 30 N 1A5 30 SSW 1A5 VPC 15 NE GAD
25 SSW 3A1 30 W 1M4 45 SE UTA 30 E SRC 30 N RUE.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 SSE LXT SZL 15 WSW FAM POF 35 NNW ARG 30 ESE SGF 45 SSE LXT.


DAY 1...

...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY / MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY / TENNESSEE
VALLEY

COMPLEX PATTERN AS MULTIPLE IMPULSES OF DYNAMICS IS AND WILL FUEL
CLUSTERS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR POTENTIAL EXCESSIVE RAIN FROM THE
MID MS VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 21 HRS. ALREADY TWO
CLUSTERS OF MCS ACTIVITY... ONE FADING AND ANOTHER EXPANDING...
FROM WEST CENTRAL MO TO WESTERN KY/TN THIS MORNING. THIS IS ALL ON
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE IN WHICH BROAD NWRLY
FLOW REGIME IS OCCURRING AND WILL REMAIN INTACT. WARMING CLOUD
TOPS ON IR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT ALREADY THE INITIAL MCS IS
DECAYING... WHILE JUST UPSTREAM OVER MO THE SECONDARY FEATURE IS
ABOUT TO DO THE SAME... THOUGH WPC WILL KEEP THE MDT THREAT
INTACT. THE ANTICIPATION BASED ON 12Z HRRR AND RAP REFRESH IS
THESE EVENTUAL MCVS WILL PROCEED DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE TN VALLEY
AND REDEVELOP CONVECTION THIS AFTN FROM SOUTHERN/SERN KY THROUGH
TN INTO NORTHERN AL/MS/GA AND EASTERN PORTION OF AR. THIS IS AN
AREA ALREADY WITH SOMEWHAT LOW FFG... ESPECIALLY OVER TN AND PARTS
OF KY... THUS WPC WENT AHEAD TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT AREA WHERE BEST
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE
UPSTREAM OVER ERN SD/NE AND WRN IA... ANOTHER VERY SMALL IMPULSE
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INVOF THE MID MS VALLEY LATER THIS
AFTN/EVENING AND COULD TRIGGER ANOTHER COMPLEX OF HEAVY CONVECTIVE
RAIN. THE MESO AND LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATE SLIGHT
INCREASE OF UPPER HEIGHTS WHICH COULD ALLOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION
OVER MO TO SETUP A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN THIS
MORNINGS ACTIVITY. HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATE POOLING OF 2 INCH PWS
RETURNS ONCE AGAIN WITH STEADY 850MB INFLOW FOR LIKELY
CONTINUATION OF THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS A TOUGH FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 21 HRS GIVEN PATTERN AND TIME OF YEAR... THUS WPC
KEPT THE SLIGHT AND MDT RISKS AND EXPANDED EACH AREA.

MUSHER
$$





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