Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 110659
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

...VALID 06Z THU SEP 11 2014 - 12Z FRI SEP 12 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 E ILN 35 ESE LUK 25 SE FTK 35 SE PAH 10 S NQA 20 NE MWT
40 NW DEQ 20 W MLC 15 SSE TQH 35 SE TBN 15 ENE BLV 20 SW PRG
25 WSW AOH 10 W MNN 15 N OSU 25 E ILN.


PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN
VALLEY

CONCERNS FOR HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
IN THE AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES THAT  WILL STRETCH FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THESE AREAS.  FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS
IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS AND POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVEMENT AND/OR
TRAINING OF CELLS IN A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY TO EAST NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAINS DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN
VALLEY---WITH THE HEAVY RAIN FOCUS THEN SHIFTING MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD.  IN AREAS OF TRAINING--ISOLATED 1-2"+ PRECIPITATION TOTALS
POSSIBLE IN AN HOUR OR TWO.   SEE MPD #364 FOR MORE
INFORMATION/THOUGHTS CONCERNING AREAS FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO
WESTERN TN THROUGH 0936Z.

ORAVEC
$$





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