Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 161819
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
218 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014

...VALID 18Z WED JUL 16 2014 - 00Z FRI JUL 18 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSE LIC 35 NE LAA 35 W GCK 30 ENE LBL 30 NNW WWR 15 SSE AVK
10 S PNC GCM 15 N FSM 15 SSE RKR 20 NNE PRX 15 SSE GYI
30 SSE SPS 35 SE CDS 45 WNW CDS 15 NW AMA 20 ENE CAO 40 WNW SPD
20 ESE PUB 40 SSE LIC.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
SNL 15 NNE MLC 45 N PRX 10 SE DUA 20 SSE 1F0 10 NE F05
10 SW PPA 30 SSW PYX 35 SSE GAG SNL.




...SE CO INTO OK/NRN TX...

A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY TO PSBL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT IS LIKELY TO
UNFOLD THIS PD FOR PARTS OF THE SRN ROCKIES WHILE MORE LIKELY TO
THE SOUTHEAST OVER MUCH OF SRN OK INTO EXTREME NW AND NRN TX.   A
SERIES OF WEAK UPR DISTURBANCES DROPPING SEWD FROM WY/WRN NEB WILL
INTERACT WITH RETURNING WARM FRONT AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWS
WORKING NWD FROM THE WRN HI PLAINS TO SET THE STAGE FOR RAPID TSTM
DVLP LATE WED AFTN/EVENING THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPAND EWD
WED NIGHT INTO STRENGTHENING MSTR FLUX/WAA PATRN INTO A POTNLY
WELL ORGANIZED MCS.  WHILE QPF PLACEMENT SPREAD REMAINS HIGH..EVEN
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUPPORT THE USUALLY MORE ROBUST HI RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS IN FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS PARTICULARLY ACRS EXTREME NRN TX AND CNTL/CNTL OK WHICH IS
USUALLY A GOOD SIGN SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL OCCUR.  IN GENL...FELT
THE 12Z NAM WAS PLACING WAA PCPN A LITTLE TOO FAR NE ACRS NE OK
INTO SE KS WED NIGHT/THUR PARTLY DUE TO SHARPENING MID LEVEL
CIRC..WHERE GENL MODEL CONSENSUS WAS A LITTLE MORE BROAD WITH THIS
FEATURE.  THIS SHARPENING MID LEVEL CIRC LIKELY IS RESULTING IN
STGR SWLY 85H CONVERGENCE BEING PUSHED FARTHER NE.  MANUAL QPF
FCST GENLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF..GEFS MEAN...ALTHOUGH
DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST..ALONG WITH SOME OF THE LATEST HI
RES GUIDANCE.  GIVEN BOTH DYNAMIC AND THERMAL FORCING
CONSIDERATIONS..HAVE INDICATED AREAL-AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO
NEARLY 4 INCHES...THOUGH ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL IN EXCESS
OF 5 INCHES WILL BE PSBL.  THESE AMOUNTS SUPPORT A MDT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE EWD ACRS MUCH OF SRN OK.

...DESERT SW..
ISOLD HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS ARE PSBL THIS AFTN AND EVENING ACRS
PORTIONS OF NM/AZ WITH LINGERING MONSOON MSTR TRAPPED UNDER WEAK
NWLY FLOW REGIME.  BEST CHANCES OF SEEING RUNOFF ISSUES ARE MORE
LIKELY OVER NM WHERE FFG VALUES AREA QUITE LOW AND PRESENCE OF
MOIST ELY UPSLOPE CONDS OVER ERN NM MAY ENHANCE FOCUSING ACTIVITY
NEAR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SACRAMENTO/GUADALUPE MTN RANGES.

SULLIVAN/HURLEY





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