Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 270645
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

...VALID 06Z WED AUG 27 2014 - 12Z THU AUG 28 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 N ONL 30 WSW FSD 20 SE FSD 15 SSW SPW 20 ESE SLB 20 ESE CIN
35 ESE ADU 10 ESE AIO MLE 15 S AUH 20 SSE HDE 30 NNW HLC
45 S MCK 30 ENE GLD 40 N GLD 20 WNW IML 45 N OGA 40 NW TIF
20 NNE ANW 50 N ONL.


THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD OF
INCREASINGLY HEAVY RAINS DOWNSTREAM THRU PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST..ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AHEAD OF
THIS H5 TROF..A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT UP THRU THE PLAINS WILL BRING IN HIGHER MOISTURE AND LEAD TO
POOLING OF PWS TO NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY.  THIS WILL SET UP AN EXPANDING AND INCREASINGLY HEAVY
OVERRUNNING CONVECTIVE EVENT..WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS
EXPECTED ACROSS NE AND EVENTUALLY EXTENDING INTO WESTERN IA BY
LATER IN THIS PERIOD.  MODEL QPFS..INCLUDING THE GLOBAL AND
HIRES..WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT..SO
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS RATHER HIGH..WITH AT LEAST AN AXIS
OF 1-2+ INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINS EXPECTED BUT WITH ISOLATED 3-4+
INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE..WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

TERRY

$$




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