Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 160317
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1116 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...VALID 03Z SAT AUG 16 2014 - 00Z SUN AUG 17 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 E D07 40 E D07 10 S 2WX 35 SW BHK 45 WNW GDV 50 ENE OLF
15 N KD60 10 E MIB 15 WNW K5H4 35 SW K46D 50 SSW JMS 20 NNW ABR
20 SSW ABR 45 WNW HON 45 E D07.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
OXV 15 NNE OTM MPZ BRL 20 SSW MQB 20 WNW IJX 15 SSE PPQ
30 NW SUS 30 ENE JEF 10 ESE DMO 15 S LXT 10 NW IXD 15 N TOP
30 WSW FNB 10 NW AFK 20 ESE AIO OXV.


THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST MT...ON THE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN ND
CLOSE TO THE FRONT. WHILE THE MULTI MODEL SIGNAL IS FOR THE
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN ND TO BLOSSOM AFTER 09Z...POSSIBLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SQUALL LINE APPROACHING. THE 18Z SSEO MEAN
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES PEAK BETWEEN 09-15Z ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ND AND NORTH CENTRAL ND...AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
(INCLUDING THE 00Z ARW/NMM) SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL 2-4 INCH
QPF AMOUNTS.

TRIMMED A BIT THE SLIGHT RISK OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY THIS
PERIOD..WITH THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS EXPECTED FROM PARTS
OF SOUTHERN IA INTO NORTHERN MO AND NORTHEASTERN KS.  VERY HIGH
PWS IN PLACE..2.17 INCHES AT TOP..AND A K INDEX OF 39..ATTEST TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE.  EXPECT THE SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS KS/NE TO TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY..TRIGGERING MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING VICINITY OF THE FOCUSING SURFACE BOUNDARY.  40+
KTS OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO SUPPORT THIS
ACTIVITY..AND COULD LEAD TO SOME TEMPORARY BACK BUILDING.  WHILE
FFG VALUES ARE RATHER HIGH THRU THIS REGION..THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME 1-2 INCH RAINS IN AN HOUR OR SO AND SOME LOCAL 3-4+ INCH
AMOUNTS THIS ENTIRE PERIOD COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED FLOODING
CONCERNS.

TERRY/HAYES
$$




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