Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 111404
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1004 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2017

...VALID 15Z FRI AUG 11 2017 - 12Z SAT AUG 12 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 E CSG 25 NW LGC 15 WSW RMG 10 NNE DNN 35 NNE 1A5 15 SW MRN
25 ESE GSP 10 NE HQU 10 W EZM 30 E CSG.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 N RQE 45 SSE DRO 20 SSW CPW 35 S MYP 30 SW FCS 25 NNE LHX
35 NE SPD 25 NW GAG 15 SSE WWR 25 SSW END 10 NE TIK 25 S OKM
10 NNW FSM 40 NW RUE 25 ESE FLP CGI 25 ESE M30 25 SW HOP
50 E MKL 45 W MSL 15 WSW TUP HKS 40 NNE IER TYR 10 W DTO
15 WNW SPS 15 ENE CDS 40 WNW PVW 20 ESE ROW 25 ENE ALM
30 ENE TCS 40 NW SVC 25 W SAD 20 NE DMA 30 W TUS 60 SSE GBN
35 WSW GBN 25 W LUF 50 WSW PRC 40 SE IFP 25 NNW EED 35 W LAS
25 SE DRA 40 N LSV 15 W SGU 50 NNW GCN 70 N INW 30 N RQE.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 ESE INW 25 SSW GUP 25 NE GNT 30 W SKX 25 ENE RTN 35 SW EHA
10 SW PYX 25 S HHF 35 S PPA 10 SE TCC 30 N 4CR 50 N TCS
60 NNW SVC 65 SSE SJN 45 SE SOW 30 SSW SOW 50 W SOW 60 SSE FLG
25 S FLG 15 WNW FLG 25 NNE FLG 20 NNE FLG 20 ESE FLG 15 ESE INW.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NW SRC 15 W JBR 20 WSW BYH 15 W NQA 20 SW UTA 10 W LLQ
30 NNW ELD 30 SW MWT 15 NNW HOT 10 NW SRC.




...SOUTHWEST AND CO/NM ROCKIES TO THE S-CENTRAL PLAINS/MS VALLEY...

SATELLITE DERIVED AND OBSERVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS
OF 2 INCHES REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF AZ AND MODELS FCST ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTHWEST FROM MEXICO. VORT ENERGIES
ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN FAVORABLE UPPER
DIVERGENCE/UPPER JET DYNAMICS KEEPS CONVECTION ACTIVE DAY 1 ACROSS
AZ...SRN NV...AND ACROSS NM. THE COMBINATION OF ENHANCED
LIFT/MOISTURE LEADS TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH LOCAL RUNOFF
PROBLEMS. THE BETTER CLUSTERING OF HIGHER QPF IN THE HIGH RES
MODELS IS IN NM.

FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS WILL PERSIST WITH A
CENTRAL PLAINS TO OH VALLEY UPPER JET MAXIMA TODAY....WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND SPORADIC UPPER DIVERGENCE
MAXIMA IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY...CENTERED ON AR. LIFT IS AIDED BY
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BNDRY UPWARDS TO
2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOWS FROM THE MORNING COMPLEX EXITING OK
ACROSS AR...AND ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST MO.

THE RISK AREA WAS DROPPED ALONG THE RED RIVER STRADDLING SOUTHERN
OK/NORTH TEXAS AS THE TRAILING BANDS OF SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
LIGHT WITH RECENT GUIDANCE SHOWING AMOUNTS MOSTLY UNDER AN INCH.


...SOUTHEAST US/SRN APPALACHIANS...

A PLUME OF MOISTURE WITHIN A LOW-MID LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE IS
FORECAST FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. WIDESPREAD/HEAVY CENTRAL GULF COAST CONVECTION
DEVELOPED TODAY WITH A FOCUSING MCV. EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL
REDEVELOP TODAY WITH THE SLOW MOVING FEATURE AS THE PLUME OF LEAD
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AS A WEST-EAST UPPER JET MAXIMA PUNCHES
EWD ACROSS KY FRI. COUPLETS OF UPPER DIVERGENCE/LOWER CONVERGENCE
DEVELOP AND PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/CENTRAL TO
SRN APPALACHIANS...AND ADJACENT LEE AREAS UP THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC LATER DAY1 IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
NRN STREAM COLD FRONT. BELIEVE HEAVIEST THREAT TODAY MAY BE OVER
N-CENTRAL GA/SRN APPALACHIANS/WRN CAROLINAS WITH THE MCV/DEEPEST
MOISTURE...BUT DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION
INCLUDING AREAS WET WITH RECENT RAINFALL. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

PETERSEN/SCHICHTEL
$$





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