Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 180640
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
240 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

...VALID 06Z FRI JUL 18 2014 - 12Z SAT JUL 19 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SE KXIH 15 WNW LBX 25 N VCT 35 NW VCT 40 SE RND 20 ESE SSF
SSF 10 WNW SKF 20 WNW SAT 30 NNW SAT 35 NW HYI 20 SSE BMQ
10 W GTU 10 NE GTU 25 ENE GTU 20 SW LHB 20 NE CLL 20 NNW UTS
20 WNW LFK 10 ENE OCH 30 ENE OCH 45 W IER 25 W IER AEX
30 WSW HEZ 20 SE HEZ 15 NNW MCB 15 E MCB 20 NW ASD MSY
30 SSE P92 15 SE SRN 40 NE KEHC KCRH 15 SE KXIH.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SSW P92 20 SSW KVNP 15 NNE KCRH 30 E KXIH KXIH 10 NW GLS EFD
10 E IAH 30 E CXO 40 WSW JAS 25 W JAS 15 NNW JAS 30 NE JAS
20 NW POE 10 N POE 15 NNW ACP 20 E ACP 35 WNW BTR 10 WNW BTR BTR
20 SE BTR 30 NNE 7R3 15 NE 7R3 15 SSW P92.


THE SIGNIFICANT TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT WILL CONTINUE THIS
PERIOD..AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  WHILE THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE H5 TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD..TAKING MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING RAINS WITH IT THRU THE TN AND UPPER OH VALLEYS
LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT..THE WEAKER SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROF WILL BE SLOWER MOVING WITH EVEN SOME HEIGHT RISES
OCCURRING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES LATER
IN THE PERIOD.  AS A RESULT OF THIS WEAKENING AND SLOWER MOVING
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE H5 TROF..THE VERY HIGH PWS IN THE 2 TO
2.25+ INCH RANGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE TX COAST AROUND TO
THE FL PANHANDLE.  THIS VERY HIGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY..ALONG
WITH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFT..WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL SOME
STRONG AND ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS/CONVECTION..WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED.  THE MODEL QPFS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT TONIGHT..AT LEAST IN TERMS OF WHERE THE MORE OVERALL
SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL OCCUR..BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE A TENDENCY
BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO EMPHASIS THE HEAVIEST RAINS UP IN THE TN
VALLEY..WHILE THE HIRES MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINS DOWN OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA.  ALTHOUGH NOT
PERFECT..THE HIRES MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB TO THIS
POINT..AND PREFER THE HIRES IDEA OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS FARTHER
SOUTH VICINITY OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FOCUSING SURFACE
FRONT..WITH THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH WILL ROB SOME OF THE MOISTURE INFLOW
FARTHER NORTH.   IN THIS HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS THRU THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION..EXPECT SOME LOCAL 1-2 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN AN HOUR OF SO AND MORE WIDESPREAD AREAL
AVERAGE TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES THIS ENTIRE PERIOD..WITH ISOLATED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS QUITE POSSIBLE.

TERRY





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