Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 060651
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 AM EDT SUN JUL 06 2014

...VALID 06Z SUN JUL 06 2014 - 12Z MON JUL 07 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



ARROW HEAD OF MN

A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS ADDED OVER THE ARROW HEAD OF MN FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING AREA OF
NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS MOVING EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN MB INTO
ONTARIO AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY UPPER LAKES REGION.
 THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EASTWARD THIS PERIOD THROUGH THE UPPER TO MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES REGION.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT WITH QPF DETAILS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AS MODELS DO SHOW A LOT OF SPREAD WITH THESE DETAILS.
HOWEVER--WITH PW VALUES FORECAST TO REMAIN 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE MEAN---WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH EAST
AND SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY.  WITH RECENT
RAINS HAVING LOWERED FFG VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARROW HEAD
OF MN---ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHORT TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1"+
FROM EARLY THIS MORNING INTO EARLY IN THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD---POST
1200 UTC---MAY RESULT IN RUNOFF ISSUES OVER FAR NORTHEAST MN.

COASTAL SOUTHEAST

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION ACTIVE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE UPPER COAST
OF GA INTO COASTAL SOUTHEAST NC.  THE 0000 UTC NAM AND GFS BOTH
TRENDED FARTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THEIR
RESPECTIVE QPF AXES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST---NOW BOTH DEPICTING
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS.  THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT HERE ALSO WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL.  CONVECTIVE CELL MOTION VECTORS SUGGEST SLOW MOVEMENT
OF CELLS ALONG THE COAST IS POSSIBLE---WITH ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES
A POTENTIAL FROM ISOLATED SHORT TERM AMOUNTS OF 1-2"+ AND ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 3-5".

SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST---GREAT
BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN.  THE
CLOSED UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES--- 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN--REMAINING TO ITS SOUTH FROM SOUTHEAST CA---SOUTHERN
NV---SOUTHERN UT---AZ AND MOST OF NM.  HIGH PW VALUES AND WEAK
SHORTWAVES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION.  CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS IS LOW---HOWEVER---WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE---LOCALLY HEAVY
TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER A
FAIRLY LARGE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST CA---ACROSS SOUTHERN NV---LARGE
PORTIONS OF AZ AND NM.

ORAVEC
$$





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