Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 230750
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
350 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

...VALID 12Z THU JUL 23 2015 - 12Z FRI JUL 24 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



NORTHERN TO NORTHEAST ND INTO FAR NORTHWEST MN

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE IN THE 0000-1200 UTC FRIDAY
TIME FRAME OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE
UPPER MS VALLEY.  THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL ACCENTUATE LIFT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD THIS
PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES ACROSS LARGE
PORTIONS OF ND AND MN. THERE IS A STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO
ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS--WITH A SLIGHT RISK
DEPICTED FROM NORTHEAST TO EASTERN ND INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN MN
WHERE FFG VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW.  SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF 1-2"+ POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS.

EASTERN NC INTO NORTHEAST SC

AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL PERSIST ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A STRONG
MODEL SIGNAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAX MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
EASTERN NC INTO NORTHEAST SC.  WHILE FFG VALUES ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH ACROSS THESE AREAS---INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE THAT
MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES.  SHORT TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2"+ POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEAST SC INTO EASTERN NC--WITH A SLIGHT
RISK DEPICTED ACROSS THESE AREAS.

ORAVEC
$$





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