Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FOUS30 KWBC 170145
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
944 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

...VALID 03Z FRI OCT 17 2014 - 00Z SAT OCT 18 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
70 SSE RKD 80 NE PVC 45 ENE PVC 30 NE CQX 15 ENE ACK 20 SSW ACK
15 SSW MVY 15 WSW MVY EWB 10 NW TAN BOS LWM 15 ENE CON 15 NE CON
20 SSW MWN 10 W BML 25 SE CWQH 25 SSE CYSC 35 SSW CWHV 30 S CWIG
25 SSE CWST 35 ESE CWST 35 SW FVE 30 WNW HUL 40 ESE MLT
35 ENE BHB 45 SE BHB 65 SE RKD 70 SSE RKD.



...NEW ENGLAND...

DEEP MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
FUNNELED AHEAD OF AND ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE DEEP
MOISTURE...WHICH APPEARS TO NOW HAVE SOME TIE TO GONZALO (BASED ON

THE LATEST BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT)...WILL FEED
SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED CONVECTION CONTAINING WARM RAIN PROCESSES
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE RADAR LOOP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SHOWED SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION STREAMING NORTH NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN MA...NH AND
WESTERN ME. THE LATEST BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
SHOWED THAT THE RAIN WAS IN THE MIDDLE OF A 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH
PRECIPITABLE AXIS...STRETCHING FROM JUST SOUTH OF KPWM TO THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE GONZALO CIRCULATION. THESE VALUES WERE
VALIDATED
BY 00Z SOUNDINGS AT KCHH AND KGYX. THE BEST SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY RESIDES SOUTH OF KACK...THOUGH KCHH AND KGYX SOUNDINGS
SHOWED ABOUT 300 J/KG OF CAPE AT 00Z. AS THE CLOSED MID LEVEL
SYSTEM WOBBLES EAST...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
SHOULD TRUNDLE EAST.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (WHICH ARE BETWEEN
TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) SUPPORT OCCASIONAL
RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.50 INCHES THROUGH AT LEAST
17/06Z.

THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTS TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST ME
(CENTERED ROUGHLY AROUND THE MOUTH OF THE PENOBSCOT RIVER) AFTER
17/06Z. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR...RAP AND 18Z NAM
CONEST) THAT THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE IS POINTED HERE ON THE 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL
FLOW. AGAIN...THERE MAY BE A TIE TO SOME OF THE GONZALO
MOISTURE... ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO 17/06Z...AND THE LATEST HRRR/RAP
AND NAM CONEST AGREE THAT A 1.00 TO 2.00 INCH QPF AXIS IS EXPECTED
WITH THE FOCUS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL ME. AGAIN...GIVEN
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
(POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 3 INCHES) ARE POSSIBLE.

HAYES
$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.