Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 190847
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
447 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...VALID 06Z FRI SEP 19 2014 - 12Z SAT SEP 20 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
KVBS 30 E KRP 10 WSW MMNL 15 WNW MMPG 20 SE 6R6 70 SSE E38
40 SSW MRF 65 SE MMCS 15 E LRU TCS 55 S ABQ 20 NNW CQC 20 NW TCC
30 WNW AMA 35 SSE PPA 20 ESE CDS 25 N DYS 25 WSW BWD 15 ENE AUS
25 E CXO KVBS.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 NNW HMN 35 SE CQC 20 SE TCC 35 WNW CDS 10 S SNK 35 NW E29
40 ENE 6R6 20 NNW 6R6 50 SE E38 15 SSW MRF 35 SSW GDP 40 NNW HMN.


...NEW MEXICO EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS...

REMNANT DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE...ALONG WITH
THE OTHER ANOMALOUS PW AXIS EXTENDING WELL N/NE  OF T.S. POLO INTO
THE TX BIG BEND...WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH STALLED W-E
DRAPED STATIONARY FRONT FROM WEST TX/BIG BEND AREA EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TX GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERSISTENT S-SE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS WRN GOMEX MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF ODILE`S SLOW MOVING CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...THOUGH THE MCV SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO NRN TX BY THIS
EVENING WILL ESSENTIALLY CLEAR NM OF ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. WEAK ANTECEDENT UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITHIN
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE MCV AND WITH
THE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

THROUGH MID-MORNING...THE ENHANCED NOCTURNALLY-AIDED ELEVATED LLVL
INFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TOWARD TOWARD GREATER UPWIND
PROPAGATION AND THUS A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF CELL TRAINING ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA... PARTICULARLY ACROSS WEST TX INTO SERN NM WHERE
THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR. ADDITIONAL
AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS (1-2+ INCHES) WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS SERN NM
AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WRN TX...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
STRONG UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND MORE DIRECT IMPACT FROM ODILE`S
REMNANT 850-500 MB CIRCULATION (PWS 2.5-3.0 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL). ELSEWHERE... AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO .50 TO
1.00 INCH...HOWEVER AS PER THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE... LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 3-6+ INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE OVERALL
MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT (WARM RAIN PROCESSES) WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED RAINFALL RATES OF 2.5+ INCHES PER HOUR.

HURLEY
$$





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