Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
901 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

...VALID 01Z MON APR 25 2016 - 12Z MON APR 25 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...




0100 UTC UPDATE

NO CHANGES TO THE AREA OF CONCERN FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.  STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE
MOVING INTO EASTERN NE AND INTO THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONT
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHERN MN AND FAVORABLE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
ACTIVE CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL.  WITH PW VALUES 1.5-2+
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN ACROSS THESE AREAS AND MUCAPE
VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG...ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM
SHORT TERM PRECIP TOTALS OF 1"+.

ORAVEC



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

...UPPER MS VALLEY...

AN INCREASING AREA OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ACRS THE UPR MS
VALLEY AIDED BY STRONG RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME NEARLY E/W BANDED
AREAS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION THRU THE PERIOD..SOME OF WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE 12Z ARW ON SAT...WHICH HAD BEEN
NORTH OF MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE...HAS SHIFTED SOUTH IN THE
00Z MODEL RUN...WITH ITS AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN ALIGNING BETTER WITH
THE 85H-7H CONVERGENCE AXES.  THIS ADJUSTMENT SWD ALLOWS FOR A
BETTER FIT WITH MOST OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE ACRS THE UPR MS
VALLEY WITH GENERAL CONSENSUS OF 00Z HI RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTING AN
AXIS OF 2 TO 3 INCH RAINS FROM PARTS OF NRN MN INTO NRN WI AND THE
U.P. OF MI.  WHILE THESE RAINS ARE MORE OF A LONGER DURATION
EVENT...WHERE THE STGR NEAR STATIONARY BANDS SET UP RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH SOME OF THE LOWER 3 HR FF GUIDANCE VALUES
ACRS THE REGION...PSBLY LEADING TO ISOLD RUNOFF PROBLEMS.

SULLIVAN/HURLEY
$$





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