Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 261312
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
911 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...VALID 15Z SAT JUL 26 2014 - 12Z SUN JUL 27 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
DNV 15 WNW ZZV 25 NW 48I 40 SSE LUK 20 SSE HUF DNV.


15Z UDPATE...

NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS OUTLOOK OR REASONING.   SULLIVAN

...OH VALLEY...

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TO BUILD
UPSCALE AS IT APPROACHES THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING AND MORE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT.  AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE MODEL QPF REMAINED
SOMEWHAT STINGY GIVEN THAT THE MODELS DEVELOPED THE CONVECTION
ALONG THE AXIS OF A PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INSTABILITY AXIS AND IN
A REGION OF DEEP LAYERED SHEAR.  TENDED TO GO AT OR ABOVE MODEL
QPF GUIDANCE HERE.  WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING BETTER
DEFINITION TO THEIR LOW/MID LEVEL VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS AND
ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLE QPF...WE TRANSLATED A PART OF THE
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED SLIGHT RISK FROM DAY 2 INTO THE NEW DAY 1 TIME
FRAME.  SEVERAL POSSIBILITIES...INCLUDING UPSTREAM CONVECTION
INTERCEPTING TO MUCH MOISTURE...MAY PRECLUDE MUCH FLASH FLOODING.

...SOUTHWESTERN U.S TO COLORADO...

GLOBAL AND HI RESOLUTION MODELS FIRE UP MORE CONVECTION DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY WITH THE SIGNALS FOR SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SUGGEST
THAT LOCALIZED RUN OFF PROBLEMS WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE THAT THE STORMS CAN TAP.


BANN

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