Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 200051
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
850 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...VALID 01Z WED MAY 20 2015 - 12Z WED MAY 20 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
65 S CDS 35 WNW CDS 40 NNW CDS 40 W CSM CSM 20 ESE CSM
20 WNW CHK TIK 15 SSE CQB 15 SE OKM 10 NNE JSV 20 NE FSM
35 ENE FSM 15 NW MWT 15 SW MWT 15 N TXK OSA 10 W 3T1 RBD
10 WSW MWL 35 W RPH 65 S CDS.


HAVE REMOVED PREVIOUS SLIGHT RISK ACRS CO AS THREAT THERE HAS
DIMINISHED.


TEXAS PANHANDLE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA

01Z UPDATE...HAVE TRIMMED NW PORTION OF PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AREA
WHERE STGR MID LEVEL FORCING HAS DIMINISHED AND COOLER/MORE STABLE
CONDS HAVE DVLPD.  OTHERWISE..SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS
REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF OK INTO NRN TX AND WRN AR.
THE RATHER LARGE RISK ESPECIALLY INCLUDING AREAS WELL SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT IN NRN TX WAS DUE TO LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF GUIDANCE
FOR THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE PCPN AMOUNTS.
OTHERWISE...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FEED OFF OF STG AFTN
CAPE ENERGY AND PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...UPPER DIVERGENCE... AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
WITH A RATHER LARGE N/S BAND OF ORGANIZED STORMS FROM NCNTL OK SWD
INTO NRN TX.  THE STGR STORMS CONTINUE TO FOCUS EITHER SIDE OF E/W
WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS E/W ACRS SRN OK.  AN AREA OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.75-2 INCHES FCST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TO SOUTHERN
OK WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY HIGH MOISTURE FOR HEAVIER RAIN RATES.
TIMING AND AXIS OF OF CONVECTION IS VARYING IN THE MODELS---BUT
THERE IS STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS THIS
PERIOD IN THE 0-06Z GFS/CANADIAN GLOBAL/CANADIAN REGIONAL/UKMET
GEM/WRF ARW AND ARW PARALLEL.  WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1-2" POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN THE 2-4"+ RANGE WHERE SLOW MOVEMENT OR
TRAINING OF CONVECTION OCCURS.

SULLIVAN/PETERSEN
$$




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