Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 161352
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
952 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

...VALID 15Z THU OCT 16 2014 - 12Z FRI OCT 17 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 ESE RKD 20 N PVC 20 SE BID 70 SSE HTO 120 SSE FOK 115 SE MJX
100 ESE ACY 80 SE MJX 55 ESE MJX 50 ESE BLM 15 SSE ISP
10 ESE HVN 10 WSW IJD 15 WSW ORH 15 ESE ORE AFN 10 NNE EEN
10 NNE VSF 10 S MPV 25 NE MVL 15 NNW CYSC 15 SE CWLU 10 SE CMSR
25 E CWST 15 N CERM 25 NE CYSL 45 ESE CWIY CWZF 15 NW CWPE
10 NW CXGM 40 WSW CXGM 30 SE BHB 35 ESE RKD.


MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE..MAINLY TO TRIM SOME OF
THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE EXISTING THREAT AREA.  KEPT A SLIGHT RISK
AREA  IN THE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS---2 TO 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---EXPECTED TO PERSIST AHEAD OF THE
STRONG CLOSED LOW LIFTING FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD.  WELL DEFINED VORT CENTERS ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL ENHANCE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND UVVS IN
THIS HIGH PW AXIS---CONTINUING TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY IN NEW
ENGLAND.  THERE ARE SOME RELATIVELY MINOR TIMING DETAIL
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LATEST MODELS--BUT OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE ABOVE MENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF PRECIPITATION IN A GENERAL SOUTH TO
NORTH DIRECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES WHERE
TRAINING OCCURS DURING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT.
WIDESPREAD 1-2"+ AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED ACROSS THESE
AREAS---WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2-4"+ POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING
OCCURS.

TERRY
$$




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