Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 231735
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
134 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...VALID 18Z THU OCT 23 2014 - 00Z SAT OCT 25 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SW CXGM 40 S RKD 15 E MQE 10 W SFZ 15 ENE BDL 20 WNW ORE
25 WNW CON IZG 30 NW WVL 20 NW MLT 25 WNW CWZF 15 NNE CWPE
35 SW CXGM.


...MAINE...

THE CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE
PIVOTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TO OFF THE COAST OF ME BY EARLY
FRIDAY. THE LATEST IR/WV SAT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE INTERACTING WITH
PERSISTENT AND STRONG ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR
AS SEEN IN THE LATEST WV IMAGERY IS SEEN WRAPPING AROUND THE MID
LEVEL LOW CENTER WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN THAT
WERE MOVING ONSHORE EARLIER TO BECOME WEAKER AND MORE
DISORGANIZED. THE GLOBAL MODELS AS PER THE 12Z GFS AND THE 00Z
ECMWF STILL SUPPORT AT LEAST BROKEN AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN IMPACTING ESP CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY. THE STRONGER FORCING THOUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL
AWAY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...AND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE DETACHED FROM THE STRONGER DYNAMICS. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE. ANY ADDITIONAL RUNOFF CONCERNS AT THIS POINT SHOULD
BE QUITE ISOLATED.

ORRISON
$$





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