Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 160653
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

...VALID 06Z THU OCT 16 2014 - 12Z FRI OCT 17 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 ENE CYSL CWZF 15 NW CWPE 10 NW CXGM 40 WSW CXGM 30 SE BHB
30 ESE RKD 45 SE PWM 25 ESE BVY 15 S EWB 40 SSE MTP 100 SSE FOK
110 ESE ACY 105 SE ACY 80 E OXB 50 ENE OXB 20 NE OXB 10 NE GED
10 NNW ILG 30 N RDG 20 ESE ELM 15 ENE PEO 15 WSW FZY 15 SSE CYGK
15 WNW CWGH 15 W OGS 15 W CWBZ 10 ENE CMRY 25 N CWHY 30 SE CMSC
30 WSW CWHV 10 NE CWHV 20 SE CWST 30 NNW CERM 30 NE CYSL
30 ENE CYSL.


EASTERN NY STATE---EASTERN NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND

A BROAD SLIGHT RISK AREA DEPICTED IN THE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW
AXIS---2 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AHEAD OF THE STRONG CLOSED LOW LIFTING FROM THE OH VALLEY
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD.  WELL DEFINED VORT
CENTERS ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL ENHANCE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND UVVS IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS---CONTINUING TO SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO ISOLATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC--EASTERN NY STATE AND OVER A LARGE PORTION OF NEW
ENGLAND.  THERE ARE SOME RELATIVELY MINOR TIMING DETAIL
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LATEST MODELS--BUT OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE ABOVE MENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF PRECIPITATION IN A GENERAL SOUTH TO
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES WHERE
TRAINING OCCURS DURING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT.
WIDESPREAD 1-2"+ AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED ACROSS THESE
AREAS---WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2-4"+ POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING
OCCURS.

ORAVEC
$$




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