Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 172256
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
655 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2014

...VALID 00Z FRI JUL 18 2014 - 00Z SAT JUL 19 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NNE KBQX 20 ESE KRP 30 NNW VCT 10 SE LHB 15 NW TYR
30 SSW RKR 25 NNW RUE 30 W AWM 15 NE GLH 15 W HKS 10 NE HSA AXO
10 SSW KCMB 25 NNE KBQX.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ESE 7R3 10 E 7R4 10 WNW 7R5 25 SW BPT HOU 20 ESE UTS
40 ENE OCH 35 NE IER 10 WNW HEZ 15 SW MCB 20 S HDC 20 ESE 7R3.


...LOWER MS VALLEY...

PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES COMBINED WITH MODEST CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND ASCENT FAVOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES WHERE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS FORM...WHILE THE ANTICIPATED VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
DIURNAL INCREASE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT A GRADUAL SLOWING OF
CELL MOTIONS OVERNIGHT IN A TRAINING FASHION.  OLD AND RECENT
HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR MORE SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT
COMPARED TO NEARLY ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE...LIKELY A RESULT OF MORE
REALISTIC HANDLING OF PROPAGATION. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS
MODIFIED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO REMOVE THE WESTERN EDGE OVER
TEXAS THAT LIES WEST OF THE 700 MB TROUGH AXIS...WHILE THE
MODERATE RISK AREA WAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CONSENSUS OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.  FFG VALUES ARE
QUITE HIGH...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF
2 TO 2.5 INCHES ALONG WITH TRAINING AND SLOWING OF CELL MOTIONS
OVERNIGHT...THE RISK AREAS ARE WARRANTED.

JAMES





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