Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 262051
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
451 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...VALID 21Z TUE AUG 26 2014 - 00Z THU AUG 28 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SSW 4SL 35 NNE 4SL 20 W SKX 35 NW VTP 10 N BJC 10 WSW IBM
20 NNE SNY OGA 30 WSW LBF LBF 25 ENE LBF 25 NNW ODX 20 ESE ONL
35 NNW OFK 25 ESE LRJ 20 W FOD 15 WSW MIW 25 NNE OTM FFL
20 S FFL 35 NNE IRK 25 NW IRK 15 SSE LWD 10 ESE ICL 25 NW AFK
25 SW LNK 25 W HJH 40 ENE HLC 55 N GCK 45 NW GCK 45 N EHA
45 NW TCC 30 SW ATS 40 ENE ELP 10 WSW LRU 65 SSW DMN 60 SE DUG
50 SSE OLS 50 WSW OLS 65 SSE GBN 40 E CGZ 30 NE FFZ 20 N DVT
30 NNW DVT 60 ESE EED 10 S IGM 30 SSE SGU 50 NNE BCE 15 WSW U28
35 SE CNY 40 W FMN 30 ENE GUP 10 W GNT 25 SSW 4SL.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 ENE DGW 10 WNW CUT 35 WSW PHP 15 NNW VTN 20 E BFF 20 NW TOR
45 ENE DGW.


2030Z UPDATE...EXPANDED THE EXCESSIVE OUTLOOK AREA ACROSS PORTIONS
OF UT/NM/CO TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
(ADDITIONAL AREAS OF POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL) WITHIN
CURRENT MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSIONS (MPDS).

FOR FURTHER DETAILS REGARDING ANY ACTIVE MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSIONS (MPD) WITHIN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK AREA...
PLEASE REFER TO THE LINK FROM THE WPC HOME PAGE ABOVE THE TOP NEWS
OF THE DAY... OR GO DIRECTLY TO THE MPD PAGE:
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/METWATCH/METWATCH_MPD.PHP.

HURLEY


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...


...CENTRAL PLAINS...

A QUASI-STATIONARY/SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT..SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOCUS ORGANIZED AND ENHANCED CONVECTION..ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.  EXPECT
CONVECTION TO RE-FIRE TUESDAY NIGHT FROM NEB INTO IA AGAIN AS THE
SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO 20-30
KTS..BRINGING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
LEADING TO POOLING OF PWS TO 1.75-2 INCHES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY.  THE MODEL QPFS WERE IN REASONABLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON
AN AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINS FROM PARTS OF NEB INTO WESTERN IA..THOUGH
AS IS QUITE OFTEN THE CASE..THERE REMAIN SOME LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS WILL SET
UP.   EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 1-2 INCH AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS..BUT AS
IS THE CASE WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN NEB..ISOLATED HEAVIER
TOTALS OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...RAISING FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS.   BACK IN EASTERN CO..THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW WEAKENS INTO THE TUESDAY MORNING HOURS AND BECOMES MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING..WHICH WILL
BRING IN SOME BETTER MOISTURE AND STILL SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DURING TIME OF BETTER HEATING..LEADING TO SOME
ENHANCED RAINFALL TOTALS.  FLASH FLOODING IS ESPECIALLY A CONCERN
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN CO WHERE FFG VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW.

BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON-EVENING AS THE TROUGH IN THE WEST MOVES OUT
OF THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...A
RESTRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO FEED MOISTURE INTO AN
AREA OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER...WHICH ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
WY INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  RELATIVELY LOW FFG VALUES ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS MAY CREATE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

...SOUTHWEST...

AS PER THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..THE LATEST RE-FORECAST DATA (PCPN
ANALOGS IN SIMILAR PATTERNS) CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST..SPECIFICALLY IN AZ ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE LOWER MOGOLLON RIM AND INTO THE WESTERN 2/3 OF NM.  HIGHER
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY..WITH PWS AOA 1.50 INCHES LIFTING INTO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AZ (WITH A HIGH LEVEL TROPICAL CONNECTION
FROM HURRICANE MARIE)..WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH.  THE FAVORABLE PRE-TROUGH
FORCING (UPPER DIVERGENCE) AND ROBUST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
SHOULD SUPPORT THE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE THREAT AND HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA..AGAIN PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
AREAS EAST INTO NM.   RATHER WIDESPREAD AREAL AVERAGE RAINS OF
0.50-1.00+ INCHES LIKELY..BUT WITH SOME ISOLATED GREATER THAN 2
INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN..WHICH IS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS.

PEREIRA

$$





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