Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 040527
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
126 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

...VALID 0526Z TUE AUG 04 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSE HHF 20 W AMA 35 ENE TCC 30 NW CAO 35 ESE LAA 25 NE GCK
20 E DDC 15 NW AVK 30 W JWG 40 SSE HHF.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 SSW 2WX 25 N PIR 35 SSW MHE 35 SW ONL 25 SSE IEN 40 S IKA
45 SSW 2WX.


...ALONG THE SC AND LOWER NC COASTS...

A WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL FOCUS ONSHORE FLOW INTO COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SC AND LOWER NC.  WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
TOTALS MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE---HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC INTO LOWER NC.  WHILE FFG VALUES ARE HIGH
ACROSS COASTAL SC/NC---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM
INTENSE RAINFALL IN AREAS OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SW TO
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION PARALLEL TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS.


...LOWER OH VALLEY...

A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN KY
STILL HAS ACCESS TO MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR BACKBUILDING
CELLS AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE
PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 415 FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL.


...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS...

THE WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN ON A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF.  HOWEVER---WITH
PW VALUES CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS--LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES FROM
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID INTO WESTERN WY WHERE FFG VALUES ARE
RELATIVELY LOW.

CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ALONG AN
AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.30
INCHES. CELL MOTION SLOWS AS THE DOWNWIND PROPAGATION DROPS TO
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...SO THAT CELL MERGERS AND BACKBUILDING COULD
RESULT IN PLASH FLOODING THROUGH 04/12Z. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE
PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 417 FOR MORE DETAILS.


...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

A SEPARATE STREAM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE
LATITUDE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP AND HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.
 WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS---WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE HI RES RUNS AND THE HI RES
MEANS.  LESS CONFIDENCE WITH DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT DETAILS---WITH
THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS USED FOR DETAILS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION---HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.

ORAVEC/TERRY/HAYES
$$





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