Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 100800
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2017

...VALID 12Z TUE JAN 10 2017 - 12Z WED JAN 11 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
65 WSW CEC 50 NW CEC 50 S OTH 25 WNW SXT 25 SSW SXT 40 SW MFR
40 WSW SIY 30 N O54 25 NNW RDD 35 NE RDD 40 NNE CIC 30 ENE OVE
25 SW TVL 35 NE FAT 25 NNE PTV 25 ENE BFL 25 NE BFL HJO
10 WSW FAT 20 WSW MAE 45 E SNS 15 NE PRB 30 NE SMX 30 W SDB 3A6
20 ESE SBA 15 SSW SBA 25 S LPC 80 WSW VBG.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 SW CEC 15 NW CEC 35 NNE CEC 30 ENE CEC 30 ESE ACV 40 N UKI
10 NE STS 15 NW APC CCR LVK 20 ESE RHV WVI SNS 35 SSE SNS
15 N SBP 15 ESE SBP 15 SSW SBP 25 WSW SBP 40 SSW 87Q 45 WSW 87Q
70 WSW MRY.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNE CIC 20 ENE CIC 20 NE BAB 30 SE AUN 35 NE MCE 25 NNE MAE
25 ESE MHR 20 ENE MHR 15 N OVE 20 NNE CIC.


...SW OREGON AND NRN TO CENTRAL CA...

THE BULK OF MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE OFFERS REASONABLY
COMPATABLE MASS FIELD GUIDANCE...ALBEIT WITH SOME EMBEDDED IMPULSE
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A SERIES OF DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE IMPUSLES
POISED TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE EPAC IN PROGRESSIVE BUT AMPLIFYING
FLOW. THE APPROACH OF A NEW SURGE OF DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
JET ENERGY WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION. BLENDED PRECIPITATBLE WATER LOOPS AND A BLEND OF
RECENT GFS/ECMWF RUNS COMBINE TO SHOW AMPLE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AS HEIGHT FALLS AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO THE CA COAST. ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT ON TAP WILL
FUEL WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS FROM SW OREGON
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NRN TO CENTRAL CA COAST RANGE AND INTO THE
SIERRA. WIDESPREAD AREAL AVERAGE 2-4" AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LOCAL TERRAIN ENHANCED AMOUNTS IN THE 5-8" RANGE POSSIBLE FOR THE
CENTRAL TO NRN SIERRA AND NRN CA COASTAL RANGE. ADDITIONAL RUNOFF
ISSUES REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN IMPACTED BY
HEAVY PRECIP OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THE MOST RECENT STORMS WILL LIMIT THREAT COVERAGE AWAY
FROM HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO LOWERED SNOW LEVELS.

SCHICHTEL
$$





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