Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 181412
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
911 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2017

...VALID 15Z SAT FEB 18 2017 - 12Z SUN FEB 19 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 NW SAD 55 W SAD 35 ESE IWA 10 SE IWA PHX 15 N LUF 40 WNW LUF
50 WNW LUF 60 W LUF 45 WNW GBN 40 WSW GBN 55 WSW GBN 50 E YUM
50 ENE YUM 45 E BLH 40 NE BLH 10 SSW EED 45 SSW HND 40 WSW HND
40 SSE DRA 20 WNW VGT 30 N VGT 25 N LSV 10 ENE LSV 20 E HND
20 NW IGM 10 ESE IGM 45 E IGM 30 NW PRC 10 NE PRC 35 ESE PRC
55 SSE FLG 55 NE FFZ 55 WSW SOW 50 SW SOW 50 SSW SOW 40 NW SAD.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 WSW PRC 55 WSW PRC 45 SE IGM 40 ESE IGM 45 ESE IGM 30 NW PRC
10 E PRC 20 ESE PRC 45 ESE PRC 50 NE SDL 55 ENE FFZ 60 SSW SOW
50 NW SAD 45 NW SAD 60 E IWA 45 E IWA 15 ENE FFZ SDL 15 NNW DVT
40 NNW LUF 45 WSW PRC.


15Z UPDATE

...SOUTHWESTERN U.S...

THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW SLAMMING INTO
SRN CA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING INTO NWRN
MEXICO AND THE SWRN US THIS WEEKEND. GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE LEAD
RIVER OF DEEP MOISTURE STEADILY WEAKENS AS WELL BUT REMAINS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AS HIGH AS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STILL FAVORABLE SUPPORT ALOFT/DIFFLUENCE
WILL FAVOR THE SPREAD OF SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY PCPN ACROSS THE
REGION THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCAL RUNOFF ISSUES...WITH GREATEST
TOTALS LIKELY INTO THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION OF CENTRAL AZ WHERE THE
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE UVVS AND AMOUNTS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY..BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLD EMBDD TSTMS AS MID LEVEL COOLING WITH APCHG UPR TROF HELPS
STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TODAY.  SOME 1-3"+ AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOGOLLON RIM AREA BELOW SNOW LEVELS WITH AREAL
AVERAGE .50-1" OR SO AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST.

SCHICHTEL/SULLIVAN

$$





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