Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 160659
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014

...VALID 06Z WED JUL 16 2014 - 12Z THU JUL 17 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 WNW CWPE 20 SSE RKD 25 NE CQX 95 SSE MTP 40 S HWV 10 NW BDL
10 NNW BML 55 NW MLT 15 E CWIY 30 N CWZF 15 WNW CWPE.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WNW AIA 10 NNE MCK EWK 25 W RVS 15 SE ADH 10 S 1F0 25 S SPS
45 S CDS 30 SSW AMA 20 W CAO 35 NNW VTP 30 WSW BJC ARL 35 W PAT
25 N HLD 20 ENE GEY 40 NNW GCC 35 WSW CUT 20 WNW AIA.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
AMA 10 NNE DUX 15 WSW GUY 25 NE PYX 30 WSW JWG 25 SE HBR
15 E CDS AMA.


...EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...

THE WELL-ADVERTIZED ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WITH DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING. THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY (MUCAPES 500-1000
J/KG) IS LIMITING THE RAINFALL RATES SOMEWHAT ACROSS THIS
REGION...HOWEVER THE FAVORABLE PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE PROFILE
REMAINS RATHER ROBUST PER THE ANOMALOUS PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES
AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ABOVE 12000
FT. MOREOVER...TRAINING OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE PER THE DEEP
SSW FLOW PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT...WHICH AS A RESULT WILL
EXIBIT SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS. MORE SPECIFICALLY...STRONG SSW LOW
LEVEL MOIST INFLOW OFF THE GULF STREAM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
NEARLY PARALLEL AND OF EQUAL (OR GREATER) MAGNITUDE OF THE MEAN
850-300 MB WIND...THUS RESULTING IN WEAK CORFIDI VECTORS AND SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
CORES. ADDITIONAL AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES...HOWEVER LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
3-4 INCHES PER SOME OF THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE
LOWERING FFG WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL SHORT TERM
RUNOFF ISSUES.


...EASTERN WYOMING/EASTERN COLORADO INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

THE OUTLOOK AREA WAS EXPANDED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO INCLUDE PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...TO JUST SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER...WITH GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY 2 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK. THE AFOREMENTIONED ANOMALOUS DEEP TROUGH IN THE
EAST ALONG WITH THE UPPER RIDGING OUT WEST IS ALLOWING FOR A
FAIRLY STRONG REGION OF UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ENHANCED
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS THE NRN/CEN HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEAST
INTO SW NEBRASKA...WRN KANSAS...THE WESTERN 2/3 OF
OKLAHOMA...ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...AND JUST OVER THE RED RIVER
INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TX. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
(INCEASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE AND DPVA) WILL COUPLE WITH
THE DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALREADY IN PLACE...AS THE
SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. PWS ARE POOLING
AROUND 2 TO 2.5 TIMES ABOVE AVG. THE FFG VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW
ACROSS THIS REGION AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE PINPOINT POSSIBLE 1 TO
2 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS FOR POSSIBLE RUNOFF ISSUES.

HURLEY





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