Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FOUS30 KWBC 240057
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
856 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

...VALID 01Z WED JUN 24 2015 - 12Z WED JUN 24 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES
TO RACE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT THIS TIME.  ITS QUICK MOVEMENT
AND GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS..SO
REMOVED THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT RISK WE HAD OVER THE REGION.


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 WNW DSM 15 ESE OXV 30 SSW FFL 25 NE IRK 35 WNW IRK
15 SSE SDA 10 ESE LNK 25 NW LNK 10 ENE OLU 25 NE OLU 15 WNW TQE
10 NW ADU 25 WNW DSM.

AS FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS..KEPT A SMALLER SLIGHT RISK INTACT..BUT
EVEN HERE ANY FLOODING THREAT SEEMS QUITE MARGINAL.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE FRONT AND
ENHANCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES MAY SUPPORT ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION IN THE EARLY
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY.  THE INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
TRAINING CONVECTION IN THE 0600-1200 UTC TIME FRAME EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AGAIN..THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS HERE APPEARS MARGINAL...OR AT
LEAST IS NOT VERY WELL FOCUSED IN THE MODEL FIELDS.  SPATIALLY WE
KEPT THE RISK AREA TOWARD THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION SIGNATURE
OVERNIGHT...AND TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE/SREF
MEAN PROBABILISTIC QPF.  FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY
LOW...BUT COULD BE EXCEEDED LOCALLY...AND IN AREAS OF
TRAINING...SHORT TERM AND ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

BURKE/TERRY
$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.