Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 071843
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2014

...VALID 18Z MON JUL 07 2014 - 00Z WED JUL 09 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 E GBG 20 NW CMI 20 ENE LWV 15 NW EVV 10 NE ALN 40 ENE COU
20 NNW DMO 25 SW STJ 20 W BIE 10 NNW LNK AIO 20 WNW AWG 20 E GBG.



...CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK AXIS A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH FROM
THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK IN DEFERENCE TO THE 12Z MODEL
CONSENSUS---INCLUDING HI RES GUIDANCE---WHICH SHIFTED THE AXIS OF
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT FURTHER TO THE NORTH---BUT OVERALL THE
FORECAST PICTURE REMAINS MUCH THE SAME.  THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY REGION SHOULD BECOME A PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY.  STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO THIS BOUNDARY AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER 0000 UTC TUE---STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD ABOVE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY---SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS IN A GENERAL
WEST TO EASTERLY DIRECTION.  WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO ISOLATED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FROM IN THE VICINITY OF
SOUTHEASTERN NE---SOUTHERN IA---FAR NORTHEAST KS---NORTHERN MO
INTO SOUTHERN IL.  IN AREAS OF TRAINING--SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION
TOTALS OF 1-2"+ POSSIBLE.

...OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...

EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS IT DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND PWS
ON THE ORDER OF 1.75-2 INCHES AFFORDED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT---INTERACTING WITH WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY
AND SOME ENHANCED DIVERGENCE ALONG THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER JET STREAK---MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS.  WHILE
THESE STORMS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE BY THE EVENING
HOURS---UPWIND PROPAGATION VECTORS SUGGEST SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WITH
SOME TRAINING EARLY ON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-OH VALLEY TO THE
LOWER LAKES REGION. HI-RES GUIDANCE---INCLUDING THE HRW-ARW/NMMB
AND THE NAM CONEST---ALL FOCUS LOCALLY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PA INTO FAR WESTERN NY DURING THE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY.

...SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THE LATEST
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE CLOSED UPPER HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  TO THE SOUTH OF THIS UPPER HIGH
CENTER--MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WITH STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF
2-3 ABOVE THE MEAN WILL PERSISTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.  THESE HIGH PW VALUES AND THE PERSISTENT
UPPER SHEAR AXIS WITH EMBEDDED VORTS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER HIGH WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF WIDELY SCATTERED MONSOONAL
CONVECTION---WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES.
  SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES---FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

PEREIRA
$$
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