Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 251342
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
842 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...VALID 15Z TUE NOV 25 2014 - 12Z WED NOV 26 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 ESE SMP 50 W YKM 35 N CZK 20 N CZK 15 NW CZK 30 NW CZK
25 ENE KLS 20 E TDO 25 SE TCM 20 NE RNT 25 NE AWO 25 S CWZA
10 SE CWZA 25 SE CYHE 55 SSW CWPR 60 W OMK 20 NE SMP 10 ESE SMP.


15Z UPDATE

SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXCESSIVE OUTLOOK AT THIS
TIME.

ORRISON


PREV DISC...

...WA CASCADES...

MOIST WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THIS PERIOD.  PW VALUES IN THIS ONSHORE FLOW AXIS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE--- 1 TO 2+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---THROUGH THE PERIOD SUPPORTING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM THE WA
CASCADES---COAST AND OLYMPIC RANGE AND INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN ID
INTO NORTHWEST MT AND FAR NORTHWEST WY.   WITH THE VERY HEAVY
TOTALS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WA CASCADES AND HIGH SNOW
LEVELS---RUNOFF ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE HERE.

...NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...

CONCERNS FOR ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES ARE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA IN THE AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES
EXPECTED TO STRETCH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO---ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE  FRONT
FROM NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST---AND OVERALL
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE PW VALUES--- 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN
THAT WILL STRETCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER NORTH TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA.  THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF TRAINING OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL MOIST FLOW ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTH TO CENTRAL FLORIDA---POSSIBLY
PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES.  WITH FFG VALUES VERY HIGH
ACROSS NORTH TO CENTRAL FLORIDA---DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD RUNOFF ISSUES.

ORAVEC

$$





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