Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 290809
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
408 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...VALID 12Z FRI MAY 29 2015 - 12Z SAT MAY 30 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SSW SEP 40 S ABI 35 SE BPG 10 SW BPG 45 NNW MDD 40 NE HOB
50 W LBB 40 WNW LBB 10 SSW PVW 40 SW CDS 10 N F05 10 SW OUN
30 WNW RVS 20 SE BVO 30 NNE GCM GMJ 10 W FYV 20 SW RKR
25 NNE PRX 10 NNE SLR 15 S GVT JWY 15 SSW SEP.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
BUU 20 WNW RPJ 10 E DVN 15 WSW DVN 10 E AWG FFL 25 N OTM
20 SE IIB MRJ 30 SSE ISW 20 WNW CLI 25 NNE CLI 10 NNW MTW
10 NE ETB BUU.



SEVERAL STREAMS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL S/WV ENERGY WILL KEEP THINGS
QUITE ACTIVE CONVECTION-WISE THRU A LARGE PART OF THE CENTER OF
THE NATION THIS PERIOD.  CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH ON THIS
LARGE SCALE IDEA..BUT A BIT LOWER WITH THE FINER DETAILS OF WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAINS WILL OCCUR..ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
 IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS..MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY
CONTINUES TO SOME DEGREE IN THIS LATEST MODEL RUN..WITH SOME OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS NOT EVEN DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE ONGOING WELL
ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER TX.  SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE IS DOING AN ACCEPTABLE JOB WITH THE TX
CONVECTION..INCLUDING THE ARW..NMMB AND HRRR..SO THE 1ST PART OF
THE DAY 1 QPF LEANED MUCH MORE TOWARDS THESE HIRES SOLUTIONS.
GIVEN THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A MCV EVOLVE FROM THIS
CONVECTION..AND ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE
S/WV ENERGY MOVING THRU TX IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH..EXPECT
CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN TX EARLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.  LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY..ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COMBINATION OF THE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND LATER IN THE PERIOD ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO
LEAD TO SOME AREAL AVERAGE 1-2 INCH RAINS AND LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS..ALL OF WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE FLOODING CONCERNS FROM
PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK INTO NORTHERN TX.


KEPT THE SLIGHT RISK GOING FROM EARLIER DAY 2 ISSUANCE FOR PARTS
OF THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES..MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE FF
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE RATHER LOW.  PRE-FRONTAL/FRONTAL CONVECTION
MAINLY 2ND HALF OF THE PERIOD COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER
RAINS..AS PER AT LEAST 1 OR 2 OF THE HIRES MODEL QPFS.  SOME 1-2
INCH RAINS COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERNS IN THIS OVERALL
LOW FF GUIDANCE REGIME.

TERRY

$$





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