Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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432
FOUS30 KWBC 270821
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
421 AM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

...VALID 12Z MON MAR 27 2017 - 12Z TUE MAR 28 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SE MKL 15 S MKL 10 NNW DYR 30 S CIR 10 S PAH 30 E M30
30 SSW OWB 25 WNW SDF 25 ESE GEZ 35 WNW WMO FFO 20 ENE ILN
45 SE ILN 35 W HTS 25 W JKL 25 SE SME 15 NNE CSV 40 NW CHA
35 NE MDQ 20 NW MDQ 25 N MSL 40 SE MKL.


...TN VALLEY NEWD TO THE MID OH VALLEY...

MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS A SIMILAR IDEA OF SHEARING A CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AND WAVY SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM
NEWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY DAY1. THE
COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WITH SYSTEM
APPROACH AND 35KT SWRLY LLJ MOISTURE/WAA FEED MAY SUPPORT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY 1-3" DOWNPOURS AS FUELED BY ENHANCED PWS...WITH MAX
POTENTIAL SHIFTING ACROSS KY/TN AND VICINITY. THIS MAY LEAD TO
SOME RUNOFF ISSUES BASED ON RELAXED FFG VALUES AND CONVECTIVE QPF
POTENTIAL AS PER A COMBINATION OF THE REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED
12/00 UTC ARW...12 UTC SSEO MEAN AND WPC CONTINUITY.

SCHICHTEL
$$





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