Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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343
FOUS30 KWBC 230835
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
434 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

...VALID 12Z MON MAY 23 2016 - 12Z TUE MAY 24 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
JYR 10 NNE FET 15 SE SLB BNW 30 WNW CDJ 25 W JLN 10 WSW TQH
20 SE OKM 25 NNE CQB 15 WSW WLD 10 WNW ICT 20 S RSL 40 W HYS
25 SE GLD 20 NNE GLD 15 SSW MCK 10 SW HSI JYR.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 S OUN 35 WNW DEQ 15 WNW TXK 10 NNE 3T1 20 WNW F18 20 SSE ABI
30 ESE BPG 30 NNW BPG 30 E LBB 25 SSE PPA 10 WNW CSM 15 S OUN.


...CENTRAL PLAINS DOWN INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

EXPECT AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN TO FORM THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS AND ADJACENT MO/IA ALONG
THE NOSE OF THE PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET. THERE IS ALSO SOME MODEL
SIGNAL...ALTHOUGH OF LESSER CONFIDENCE...THAT EARLY DAY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KS AND NORTHEAST OK AS
850-700 MB FLOW VEERS...RESULTING IN GREATER FLOW ACROSS ISOTHERMS
/ UPGLIDE...AND MOISTURE ESCAPING OUT FROM THE MORE GREATLY CAPPED
AREAS TO THE WEST. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FIRE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL OVER NE CO / NW KS...AND
STRONG HEATING THROUGHOUT A BROAD WARM SECTOR SHOULD YIELD
NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES AND OVER-TOPPING COLD
POOLS THAT BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS MORNING. ADDING ALL OF THIS
UP...EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF RAINFALL ON MONDAY COMPARED TO
SUNDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGHING LEANING OUT MORE INTO THE
PLAINS...AND STRONGER WIND FIELDS LEADING TO GREATER ORGANIZATION
AND PERSISTENCE. THUS...THERE IS NOT ONE WELL DEFINED SYNOPTIC
AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING...BUT AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE
EXPECTED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WARRANTS A BROAD SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS THIS AREA.


...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS AND THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE...

AN MCS AFFECTING THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL LAY DOWN WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL THIS MORNING...WITH 2-4 INCHES ALREADY HAVING FALLEN
TOWARD SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. LATER TODAY WE HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED SWATHS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN OVER THIS REGION...WHICH MAY BE FURTHER FOCUSED BY THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ESTABLISHED THIS MORNING...AND PERHAPS STRETCHING
AS FAR EAST AS THE ARKLATEX.

THIS REGION WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL
JET AXIS NOSING OUT INTO THE PLAINS...AND WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW UP INTO THE CAPROCK REGION SHOULD ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO INITIATION IN WHAT IS OTHERWISE SOMEWHAT NEUTRAL MID
LEVEL FORCING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.


...SOUTHERN SIERRAS IN CALIFORNIA...

OUT WEST...ONE AREA OF INTEREST WILL BE THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS IN
CALIFORNIA...AND PERHAPS SPILLING OVER INTO NEVADA...AS DEEP LAYER
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BE WELL TIMED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. RELATIVELY TAME
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND CORRESPONDINGLY WEAK CAPE MAY LIMIT
THE OVERALL POTENTIAL.


...MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...

EXPECT ONE OF THE MORE ORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVECTION TODAY TO
AFFECT CENTRAL/NORTHERN MN INTO FAR NORTHERN WI...WITHIN STRONG
DEEP LAYER FORCING IN A JET ENTRANCE REGION...AND SUFFICIENTLY
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE FLOW IS ALIGNED TO ALLOW FROM SOME
BRIEF SW TO NE TRAINING...AND PERHAPS SOME RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF
RAIN GREATER THAN 1.5 OR EVEN 2 INCHES. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...HOWEVER...FOLLOWING WHAT HAS BEEN
COOL AND DRY WEATHER.

BURKE
$$





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