Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 061351
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
950 AM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

...VALID 15Z MON JUL 06 2015 - 12Z TUE JUL 07 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 E FCS 20 NNE TAD 30 W CAO 25 SSW CAO 10 NNW DUX 30 NNW BGD
30 NE PYX 10 WSW PTT 10 NE MHK 10 NW STJ 10 SSW AWG 15 ENE GBG
25 N IJX 15 SE SZL 10 WNW BVO 25 NNW CHK 50 SSE CDS 15 WNW SNK
40 E HOB 40 ENE ATS 40 NNW ROW 15 SSE CQC 25 NE SAF 20 SSW ALS
25 SSE MYP 35 SE CCU 25 NW AFF 15 E FCS.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 WNW HBR 35 SSW CDS 25 SSW LBB 40 S CVN 20 ENE TCC 25 WNW AMA
10 NE PPA 25 WNW AVK 35 NE EWK 15 NE TOP 10 W MCI 25 NE MKC
25 ENE LXT 35 SSE OJC 30 WNW BVO 15 SSW END 15 WNW HBR.


THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A VERY CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS PERIOD.
THE CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY STRONG
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE VICINITY OF THE SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM MO AND KS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE..AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO THIS BOUNDARY MONDAY
NIGHT..AND THE MODEL FORECAST OF A WEAK H5 S/WV MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.
POOLING OF PWS TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES NEAR THE
BOUNDARY..ALONG WITH SHORT TERM CELL TRAINING..SUGGESTS HEAVY TO
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS..WITH FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASING ON
MONDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.  AREAL
AVERAGE 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED FROM EASTERN KS INTO
WESTERN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE..WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF
3-5 INCHES POSSIBLE.  AS A RESULT..HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT AND
MODERATE RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE SPUR UPPER
DIVERGENCE MAXIMA CROSSING SOUTHERN CO AND NORTHEAST NM. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WHICH HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE PARTS OF THE REGION.
GFS FCST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL THIS EVENING IN EASTERN NM.  THESE PARAMETERS..ALONG WITH
HEATING AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER PERIOD
OF INCREASED CONVECTION THRU PARTS OF CO AND NM.  SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED AND KEPT THE SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINS IN THIS AREA...SUPPORTED BY LOCAL MAXIMA IN THE HIGH RES 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB/NSSL WRF.

PETERSEN
$$





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