Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 290101
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
900 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...VALID 01Z SUN MAY 29 2016 - 12Z SUN MAY 29 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 E TBR 15 ESE AGS MMT 20 E FLO 15 NNW SUT 25 ESE CRE
30 SSE CHS 30 S HXD 10 E TBR.


...COASTAL SC/EXTREME SRN NC COAST...

0100 UTC 05/29 UPDATE...

THE APPROACH OF T.S. BONNIE WILL BRING THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC...ALONG WITH THE EXTREME SRN
NC COAST AND FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF GA. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
WAS EXPANDED A BIT TO INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
SC/GA BORDER. THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE
HIGH RES (INCLUDED RECENT HRRR/PARALLEL HRRR RUNS) SHOW AN
ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 6+ INCHES THROUGH 12Z
SUN. WHILE INITIALLY HIGH...THE FFG WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER
THE OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT. SEE THE LATEST NHC OUTLOOKS FOR THE
LATEST ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON BONNIE.


...SRN TX...

MODELS SHOW RETURN FLOW SURGE DVLPG OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY SAT/SAT EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME INCREASED THREAT
OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION..PSBL MCS DEVELOPMENT SAT NIGHT UNDER
ANTICYCLONIC UPR FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING OUT ACRS NRN
MEX.  MODEL SPREAD IS MODEST HERE BOTH IN PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS
BUT ALL GENLY TEND TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF AN ORGANIZED CNVTV
THREAT ACRS THIS AREA.    WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
PSBL UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK GIVEN LATER DATA TRENDS.

SULLIVAN




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