Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 220824
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
423 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2017

...VALID 12Z THU JUN 22 2017 - 12Z FRI JUN 23 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 N CIN SHL 15 WSW MWM 15 NE EAU 10 ENE ISQ 20 NW CWBE
15 E CXPC 30 SSW CYBN 10 SSW PHN 20 NW RNP BIV 20 NW BUU
20 NNW C75 50 SSW UIN 35 NW IRK 20 N CSQ 20 N CIN.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 ESE KGVX 15 NNW LBX 25 NW UTS 10 NNE TYR 10 SSW DEQ
35 ENE RUE 20 SE FAM PRG 25 NNE EYE 10 ENE DAY 25 ENE PHD JST
15 NE W99 30 WNW SHD 15 WSW CRW 30 NW LNP 20 W TRI 15 W UKF
15 NE EHO AND 20 WSW FTY 20 WSW LSF 15 NNW ECP 40 E KVOA.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 WSW PIE 35 WNW BKV 35 ESE VLD 10 S VDI JYL 15 SE LHW NIP
20 NW ISM 25 NNW PGD 20 S SRQ 15 WSW PIE.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NW SRC 25 WSW MDH FWC 20 WSW HUF 25 ESE GEZ CVG 35 SE ILN
50 WNW HTS 35 SSW LEX 35 SSE GLW 20 NW OQT 20 SSW TYS 30 SSW TRI
10 WSW MRN 15 WNW CEU 25 SW VPC 15 SW AUO VPS 30 SSE KMIS KXPY
20 N MSY 30 SW MEI 20 NW TCL 25 SW MSL 45 SSE MKL 40 NNE GWO
20 SSW TVR 15 NNE 7R3 25 NNE KEHC 20 S KXIH 10 SW LVJ 25 N UTS
15 ESE OSA 25 ESE DEQ 25 NW SRC.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SE EAU 20 SW SJX 10 SW CWNL 45 ENE OSC 30 WNW BAX 10 N MKG
10 S ETB 15 NNE EFT 15 ESE MXO 20 ESE CCY 15 ESE EST 10 N FRM
20 SE EAU.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SSE MEI 10 NNW EET 10 ENE ALX 35 N CEW 20 WSW HRT 10 NE KMIS
20 NE AXO NEW 35 SSE MEI.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NW GLS 10 ENE UTS 20 SSW GGG 30 SSW TXK LRF 20 SSW CGI
20 S CIR AWM 15 NNE GLH 20 N ESF 20 W P92 10 NE KCRH 10 NW GLS.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 N GLH 15 NW MLU 10 WNW AEX 10 SSW ARA 20 SW KVNP 10 W KCMB
15 W LCH 20 NNE GLS 20 E CXO 20 N OCH 30 E TXK 20 NNW PBF
40 N GLH.



...EXCESSIVE RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM
CINDY...

*SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING REMAINS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CINDY.*

EXTENSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
ON THURSDAY, AS TROPICAL STORM CINDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
PER LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM NHC. THE OVERALL ASYMMETRIC PATTERN
WILL PERSIST WITH MOST OF THE TROPICAL RAINS OCCURRING INVOF THE
MODERATE SIZE CIRCULATION AND EAST OF THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE PLUME, SURGING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. ANOTHER AREA THAT WILL BEGIN
TO GET INTO THE ACTION IS UP THE OH RIVER, AS THIS MOISTURE BEGINS
TO FOCUS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE AND INTERACT WITH THE WESTERLIES
ALOFT. THE GUIDANCE HAS THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN AND SCENARIO
IN REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT ALONG WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
LOCATIONS FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN. THE BIGGEST AREAS OF CONCERN IS NEAR
CINDY AND ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OR FROM JUST NORTH OF IAH/GLS
THROUGH EASTERN TX/LFK INTO NWRN LA/SHV INTO SRN-SERN AR/ELD AND
EASTERN LIT INTO EASTERN-NERN AR/JUST WEST OF MEM TO JBR TO WHERE
THE MS RIVER MEETS THE OH. WITHIN THIS AXIS AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EASILY LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES UP
TO 10-12 INCHES. AS A RESULT, WPC WENT WITH A MODERATE AND HIGH
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN IN THIS CORRIDOR. ALSO, MULTIPLE FEEDER
BANDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOCUSED ON THE
WESTERN GULF COAST OF LA AND COASTAL AREAS/SOUTHERN MS/AL AND
EXTREME WESTERN FL PANHANDLE, THOUGH THIS REMAINS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN AND TOUGH TO PEG THE EXACT LOCATION OF THESE MESO
FEATURES. IN THESE SOUTH TO NORTH TRAINING CONVECTIVE BANDS, WPC
WENT WITH 1-3 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS BUT VALUES COULD EASILY
APPROACH 7-8 INCHES IN PROLONGED BANDS. WPC WENT WITH A RATHER
LARGE MODERATE THREAT HERE IN ATTEMPT TO CAPTURE MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THESE TROPICAL BANDS. FINALLY, MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH THE
WESTERLIES SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO FLOURISH OVER TN/KY AND SOUTHERN
IL/IN/OH WITH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES IS PROGGED BUT UP TO
4 POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOWER OH RIVER AND WPC INTRODUCED
A SLIGHT HERE.

FOR MORE ON CINDY, PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.


...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED FROM PARTS OF
THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND VERY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL INTERACT WITH
INCREASING AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE, PWS AOA 2 INCHES. FAVORABLE
RIGHT HAND ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS SHOULD FUEL THE ENHANCED
VERTICAL LIFT ALONG THE WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM MN/IA TO MI. A MULTI-MODEL APPROACH WAS TAKEN FOR
QPF WITH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM IA/SRN MN
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL WI INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI. WPC KEPT
CONTINUITY HERE WITH KEEPING A SLIGHT THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN.

MUSHER

$$





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