Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 010646
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

...VALID 06Z WED OCT 01 2014 - 12Z THU OCT 02 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 S DMO 50 SSW SZL 55 NNE JLN 45 ENE CNU 30 NNE CNU 20 ENE UKL
25 NNE EMP 30 NNW EMP 25 S MHK 20 SSW MHK 25 WSW MHK 20 W MHK
30 NW MHK 40 ENE CNK 25 SSW BIE 20 WSW BIE 20 ENE HJH 25 NNE HJH
25 SE JYR 20 W LNK 20 SSW FET 10 NNW MLE 15 SW HNR 10 NW AIO
15 E AIO CSQ LWD 30 E LWD 30 N IRK EOK 20 ESE EOK 25 SSW MQB
20 N PPQ 10 W PPQ 30 SW PPQ 10 NNE JEF 35 S DMO.

THIS AREA SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF ENHANCED
CONVECTION THIS PERIOD..WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO SOME HEAVY
TO POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINS ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NE AND EASTERN KS INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MO.
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS REGION WILL LIKELY SLIDE A LITTLE SOUTH
AND EAST THRU THE WEDNESDAY MORNING HOURS AS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS H5 S/WV MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT
THEN LIFTS OUT MORE NORTHEASTWARD LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY AS ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
ROCKIES MEAN H5 TROF POSITION.  THIS UPSTREAM ENERGY IS NOW OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN..AND IS FORECAST SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS
TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN/ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE DIGGING INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY THURSDAY MORNING..WITH DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BACKING
OVERNIGHT.  THIS DEVELOPING FLOW REGIME WILL ALLOW ONLY A VERY
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE COLD FRONT..AND WITH THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ONLY A BIT SOUTH AND EAST OF WHERE IT IS NOW..IT WILL KEEP
THE AREA FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
UNDER THE GUN FOR CONTINUED/RENEWED CONVECTION THRU THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD.  GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM..THE AVAILABILITY
OF VERY HIGH PWS..AS HIGH AS 1.50-1.75 INCHES..AND THE THREAT FOR
SOME TEMPORARY CELL TRAINING..WENT FAIRLY HEAVY WITH THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS..WITH SOME LOCAL 1-2 INCH RAINS IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND
LOCAL TOTALS THIS ENTIRE PERIOD OF 3-4+ INCHES POSSIBLE..ALL OF
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS WITHIN THE THREAT AREA.

TERRY


$$




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