Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 051854
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
153 PM EST MON DEC 05 2016

...VALID 21Z MON DEC 05 2016 - 12Z TUE DEC 06 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SE KBQX 10 NW DWH GLH DCU 25 W CEU 25 W CAE 55 E HXD
10 NNE NRB 70 WNW PIE.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 S KGVX 25 ESE LBX 10 NE EFD 45 E CXO 40 NNE JAS 20 NE TVR
30 ENE JAN 20 NNW GPT 20 NW NSE 30 SW LSF 10 NNE MCN 15 NW JYL
SVN 35 ESE VAD 25 SW 40J 75 SSE AAF.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SSE KXIH 25 NNE GLS 30 SE JAS 20 SE ACP 25 ENE LFT 25 N 7R3
25 E 7R3 30 NNE GSM 15 S KSPR.


1900 UTC UPDATE

CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST

THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS MODIFIED TO
REFLECT THE MODEL TRENDS OF EMPHASIZING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
PUSHING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE COASTAL
SOUTHEAST FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  THE
PREVIOUS MODERATE RISK AREA WAS DROPPED AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS
NOW MOVING INTO AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN AS HEAVY PRECIPITATION AS
WHERE THE PREVIOUS MODERATE RISK WAS OVER.    WHILE THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD MASS FIELD EVOLUTION AGREEMENT---FROM THE SURFACE TOP
MID LEVELS WITH THE EJECTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THIS PERIOD---THERE ARE A LOT OF QPF DETAIL DIFFERENCES.  WPC QPF
LEANED TOWARD THE IDEA OF SEVERAL OF THE HI RES RUNS IN SHOWING A
CONVECTIVE PRECIP MAX FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO COASTAL SC
WHERE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST---WHILE A SECONDARY
MAX FOCUSES FARTHER INLAND WITH THE COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIP
AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL CENTER MOVING FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY.  AREAL AVERAGE 1.5-3" TOTALS
EXPECTED WITH THE COASTAL CONVECTIVE MAX WHERE PW ANOMALIES 2-3+
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN ARE EXPECTED---WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OVER 5" WHERE CONVECTION TRAINS/MAXIMIZES.

ORAVEC

$$





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