Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 300058
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
857 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

...VALID 01Z THU JUL 30 2015 - 12Z THU JUL 30 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 S GAG 15 NW AMA 25 WNW CVS 15 SSE 4CR 45 SW ABQ 15 SSE 4SL
10 NNW SKX 30 NW RTN 20 N CAO 25 SW DDC 15 SW HUT 15 ENE AAO CNU
10 E PPF CFV 30 E PNC 20 SW PNC 20 WSW END 35 WNW JWG 30 S GAG.


...NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

01Z UPDATE...
EXPANDED SLIGHT RISK AREA SLIGHT EAST ACRS EXTREME SRN KS AND NRN
OK OVERNIGHT..MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO 12Z NMM AND ARW WHICH SUGGEST
ORGANIZED E/W BAND COULD DVLP JUST NORTH OF FRONT IN AREA OF WEAK
CONFLUENT 85H FLOW/WAA AND WITHIN AXIS OF GREATER THAN 2 INCH PWS.
 WHILE RECENT HRRR RUN DOES NOT SHOW ACTIVITY TO BE QUITE AS
ORGANIZED AS THE 12Z ARW/NMM RUNS IT DOES SUGGEST HEAVIER RAINS
COULD DVLP EWD OVERNIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN LATEST
MESOANALYSIS WHICH SHOWS BEST MLCAPES BEST SOUTH OF THE NCTNL
OK/SRN KS BORDER REGION AS OF 00Z.

OTHERWISE REMOVED SEE TEXT AREA ACRS THE SRN MID ATLC/SE U.S. FOR
REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ORGANIZED
FORCING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

ORGANIZED EVENING CONVECTION WILL FOCUS OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF NM/TX/OK/KS ALONG AND NORTH OF A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LAPSE RATES PER 12Z SOUNDINGS WERE NOT VERY
STEEP...SO INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY NEED THE ELEVATION OF CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO TO GET STARTED IN ANY LARGE SCALE AND ORGANIZED
FASHION...FORCED BY POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE AS WELL AS AN UPPER
DIFLUENCE MAXIMUM. MODELS SHOW GREATER SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING OF CONVECTION FARTHER EAST ON THE PLAINS. A MID LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS IS FORECAST TO STRETCH OUT FROM CENTRAL NM TOWARD SW KS BY
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PER THE RAP MAXIMIZES AFTER 00Z
OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CONVECTION THAT POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS
HERE...ALONG WITH THE NEW MEXICO CONVECTION...SHOULD PROPAGATE
SLOWLY EAST WHILE GRADUALLY FILLING IN ALONG A WSW-ENE ORIENTED
INSTABILITY AXIS THAT WOULD INCLUDE THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AND FAR NW
OK. PW VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.4 INCHES REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NEW MEXICO. VERY SLOW CELL MOTIONS...0-6 KM MEAN
WINDS 0-10 KNOTS ARE ALSO CAUSE FOR CONCERN...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.


ORAVEC/BURKE/SULLIVAN
$$




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