Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 221858
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...VALID 18Z MON SEP 22 2014 - 00Z WED SEP 24 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 ENE LVS 55 ENE LVS 35 NNW TCC 15 NW TCC 15 SSW TCC
30 SSW TCC 45 NE ROW 30 E ROW 30 ENE ATS 35 W HOB 25 WSW HOB
25 NW INK 15 WSW INK PEQ 15 S PEQ 25 N E38 10 NW E38 MRF
10 WNW MRF 55 NW MRF 25 SE MMCS 65 SW MMCS 130 SE DUG 15 E DUG
SAD 30 S SJN 10 ENE GNT 40 WSW SKX 35 S RTN 45 ENE LVS.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ENE CNM 35 SE CNM 35 W INK 35 NW PEQ 40 ESE GDP 30 SE GDP
20 SE GDP 10 SSE GDP GDP 10 NW GDP 35 N GDP 25 WSW ATS
25 WSW ROW 30 ENE SRR 15 SE 4CR 20 ENE 4CR 50 ENE 4CR 55 WSW CVS
50 NNE ROW 15 ENE ROW 20 ESE ROW 20 ESE ATS 20 ENE CNM.


FAR SOUTHEAST AZ INTO NM AND FAR SOUTHWEST TX

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS RISK AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES REGION.  A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SCATTERED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS CONTINUES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES---2 TO 3+
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES REGION.  MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW/ENHANCED AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE INTO THESE
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING--BEFORE THE FLOW BEGINS TO VEER
TO AN INCREASINGLY SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION IN THE EARLY
HOURS OF TUESDAY AND THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE WEAKENS.  THIS SHOULD
REDUCE THE HEAVY RAINS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT BY EARLY
TUESDAY.  PRIOR TO THIS---RAINFALL RATES OF .50-1"+ PER HOUR MAY
RESULT IN RUNOFF ISSUES--ESPECIALLY WHERE FFG VALUES HAVE LOWERED
FROM RECENT RAINS.

ORAVEC
$$





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