Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 250248
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1047 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

...VALID 0247Z MON JUL 25 2016 - 12Z MON JUL 25 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 WNW EOK 15 E PIA 20 ESE IKK 20 N GUS 20 NE EYE 15 NE RSV
15 S CPS 30 SSE OJC 10 WNW EOK.


ERN COLORADO INTO KANSAS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ONGOING CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING EWD OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO
INTO KS IS MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH ANYWHERE FROM 1000-4000
J/KG MLCAPE...2831 J/KG AT 00Z DDC...AND UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG/BEHIND
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING KANSAS FROM NORTH AND SOUTH.
WHILE A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE MOTION TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED
GIVEN FORECAST CORFIDI VECTORS OVERNIGHT...CELL MERGERS WITHIN THE
ONGOING CLUSTER AND WITH ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT MAY
DEVELOP FARTHER EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAX EXCEED LOCALLY
LOWER FFG VALUES ACROSS WRN AND NWRN KANSAS...OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES
IN 1 HOUR OR 2-3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS.


MISSOURI/ILLINOIS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
DEEP MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY....JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...RANGES FROM 2 TO 2.25 INCHES VIA 00Z RAOB
DATA.  MLCAPES ARE SIGNIFICANT, IN THE 4000-6000 J/KG RANGE.
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS CONVERGENT IN THE 20 KT RANGE.  SLOW STORM
MOTIONS IN MISSOURI...5-15 KTS...AND WEAK BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
FROM THE WEST ACROSS ILLINOIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 3-5" RANGE GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND PLENTIFUL
INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.  PER RECENT RADAR TRENDS,
INCREASED THE THREAT LEVEL FROM SEE TEXT TO A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  SEE RECENT MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE ON THE SHORT TERM HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THIS
AREA.

ROTH/OTTO
$$





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