Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 260822
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
421 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017

...VALID 12Z SUN MAR 26 2017 - 12Z MON MAR 27 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 ENE BKW 10 N I16 30 WNW I16 15 NE HTS 3I2 PKB 30 SW HLG
25 WSW BVI BTP 20 ENE BTP 10 WSW FIG 25 WNW IPT 25 WNW AVP
10 NNW SEG 15 ENE AOO 25 NW W99 10 SSW EKN 15 ENE BKW.


...UPPER OH VALLEY...NW/NRN MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL OFFERS A REASONABLY SIMILAR PICTURE IN
SHEARING AN INITIALLY CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ALOFT AND ORGANIZED
SURFACE LOW NEWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS/COLD
POOL INSTABILITY WITH SYSTEM APPROACH AND DECENT LINGERING 40 KT
LLJ MOISTURE (PWS ABOVE 1") AND WAA FEED MAY SUPPORT LOCAL 1-2"
CONVECTIVE RAIN AMOUNTS/SVRL HOURS OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND
NW/NRN MID-ATLANTIC/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS AIDED BY UPSLOPE. THIS
MAY LEAD TO SOME RUNOFF ISSUES CONSIDERING RELATIVELY LOW FFG
VALUES. BASED QPF POTENTIAL FROM A COMBINATION OF THE 00 UTC ARW
AND WPC CONTINUITY.

SCHICHTEL
$$





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