Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 040041
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
840 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

...VALID 01Z FRI SEP 04 2015 - 12Z FRI SEP 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER SOME
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER STORMS FORMED DURING THE AFTN ACRS
LOWER MI ON THE ERN END OF WEAK CLOSED CIRC.  WEAK CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF OUTFLOW COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME POCKETS OF MDT TO
SPOTTY HEAVY PCPN THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT ACRS PARTS OF SRN MI
INTO NRN OH AS LATE EVENING ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WORK OVER
RESIDUAL AFTERNOON CAPE ENERGY.  ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
FORM ALONG A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING STATES BORDERING
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITHIN AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY
AND SBCAPES BUT WITH DIMINISHING DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS ..WEAK
INFLOW JET...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WELL ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

...ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...

01Z UPDATE...
AS THE EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUE TO WANE THIS
EVENING...EXPECT THREAT OF ORGANIZED HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS..THOUGH SHOWERS MAY
LINGER IN THROUGH 12Z IN RESPONSE TO WEAK VORT ENERGY EMBDD IN
SSWLY UPR FLOW AROUND PERIPHERY OF SRN PLAINS UPR RIDGE AND
MOIST/CONFLUENT 85H-7H SLY FLOW.



JAMES/BURKE/SULLIVAN
$$




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