Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 290056
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
856 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...VALID 01Z FRI MAY 29 2015 - 12Z FRI MAY 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 S MAF 10 NNW ODO 40 NNW ODO 30 E HOB 45 N HOB 55 SSE CVS
30 SSE CVN 30 ESE CVN 50 N SNK 40 SSE CDS 40 W CSM 10 E HHF
30 WSW PYX 20 E EHA 35 NNE EHA 55 W GCK 45 WNW GCK 45 NNW GCK
55 N GCK 45 SW HLC 15 SSW HLC HLC 45 ENE HLC 35 W CNK CNK
30 W MHK 15 NW EMP 25 WNW PPF 15 E BVO 25 NE JSV 35 ESE RKR
20 SE DEQ 10 ENE TYR 10 S PSN 30 NE LHB 35 SE HYI 55 SSE SSF
35 NNE HBV 20 E LRD LRD 60 WNW MMNL 50 WSW DRT 6R6 45 S MAF.


01 UTC UPDATE

REMOVED SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST TN---NW GA---NORTHERN
TO WESTERN AL AS AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE
DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY.

ACRS TX...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SLIGHT RISK AREA EXPANDING IT
E/SEWD AHEAD OF RAPIDLY DVLPG SQLN DROPPING E/SEWD FROM NEAR THE
RED RIVER SWWD INTO SW TX.  MODEST SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL DPS/PWS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DECENT
INFLOW/MSTR FLUX INTO THE DVLPG MCS AS IT DVLPS IN RESIDUAL
AFTN/EVENG SBCAPES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG.  WHILE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF SYSTEM MAY LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO SOME QUICK 1 INCH AMOUNTS
MOST AREAS..THE FLANKING EDGE OF SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IN AN HOUR
OR TWO.

FOR FURTHER INFO PLEASE SEE MPD #148 VALID UNTIL 0445Z AND MPD
#147 VALID UNTIL 0130Z.

...ERN DAKOTAS/MN...

TSTMS DVLPG AHEAD OF BROAD UPR TROF COMING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES
HIGH PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF LEE SFC TROF
STRETCHING SWWD FROM NW MN COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME SLOW
MOVING LINE SEGMENTS THAT ALIGN THEMSELVES WITH THE DEEP LAYER
FLOW AND SFC TROF...LEADING TO THE POTNL FOR SOME SHORT TERM
TRAINING.  SOME HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST POTNL FOR LOCALIZED SHORT
TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2+ INCHES.  THESE AMOUNTS OVER SOME
OF THE LOWER FFG VALUES COULD LEAD TO ISOLD RUNOFF ISSUES.

SULLIVAN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION


...TX/OK/KS...

A VERY CHALLENGING 24 HRS COMING UP FOR PARTS OF KS SOUTH INTO
SATURATED AREAS OF OK AND TX... AS THREE CURRENT AREAS OF
CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALREADY IMPACTING PORTIONS THE
REGION. HEIGHT FALLS FROM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION IS ANTICIPATED TO
GRADUALLY PRESS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURS. AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHTS FALLS... THREE AREAS OF SMALL SCALE
CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINS HAS DEVELOPED AND NOT MUCH OF THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE NOR HI-RES VERSIONS HAVE MUCH INDICATION OF
THIS ACTIVITY. THE FIRST AREA IS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS WITH AN
MCV AND PROPAGATING MASS OF CONVECTION SLIDING NORTH AND EAST. WPC
HAS A MPD #0145 OUT FOR THIS AREA AND THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE DOES
TRACK THE VORT LOBE TOWARD IA/NORTHERN MO DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY BUT COULD EXIT THE DEEPEST POOL OF MOISTURE. THE SECOND AREA
IS A CONCENTRATED BATCH OF CONVECTION NEAR THE UPPER RED RIVER
THAT IS BEGINNING TO FORM INTO A STRONG LINE/BOW JUST NORTHWEST OF
SPS. THE HRRR IS INDICATING THIS SQUALL WITH LIKELY IMPRESSIVE
RAIN RATES TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST POTENTIALLY TOWARD THE DFW AREA
BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY AND WITH ONGOING VULNERABILITY TO HEAVY
RAINS... THIS BEARS WATCHING. FINALLY INVOF OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT NEAR SWRN KS... A NARROW LINE OF BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION IS
PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS BUT HI-RES SUITE SUGGEST THIS
RE-DEVELOPING LINE GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. NOW
HOW ALL THIS PLAYS OUT IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AND IMPACTS THE
LARGE SCALE EFFECTS LATER TODAY INTO FRI MORNING IS TO BE
DETERMINED BUT WPC WILL PLACE A RATHER LARGE SLIGHT THREAT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS FROM THE BIG BEND OF TX TO EAST CENTRAL KS AS ANY
INTENSE RAIN RATES COULD JUST EXACERBATE THE SATURATED FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.

MUSHER
$$





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