Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FOUS30 KWBC 011900
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014

...VALID 18Z FRI AUG 01 2014 - 00Z SUN AUG 03 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ESE FYJ 20 NW MFV 15 WSW SBY GED 15 SSE DOV DOV 20 SSW ILG
10 SW ILG ILG 15 NNW ILG 20 NW ILG 15 S LNS 15 SW LNS 10 SW LNS
LNS 10 SSW RDG 10 ESE RDG UKT 20 W SMQ 10 SSE 12N 15 NNW CDW
15 W HPN 10 NE TEB 15 S EWR BLM 20 S MJX 25 SSE ACY 35 ENE OXB
50 ESE WAL 75 SE MFV 65 NE FFA 15 NNE HSE 20 SSE MRH 30 SW MRH
10 SSE NCA 10 N OAJ PGV 20 ESE FYJ.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 E LVS 60 N ROW 10 S ROW ATS 10 NNE CNM 15 ESE CNM 30 SE CNM
20 W INK 15 NE PEQ 15 SSE PEQ 25 S PEQ 30 N E38 30 N MRF
65 WNW MRF 75 SE MMCS 35 SSE MMCS 35 SE DUG 35 S DUG 55 WSW OLS
85 S GBN 60 ESE YUM 35 ENE YUM 45 ESE BLH 45 ENE BLH 60 ESE EED
25 SW PRC 25 NNE DVT 40 NE FFZ 55 ENE IWA 40 NW SAD 15 NNW SAD
45 NE SAD 65 NNW SVC 75 NW TCS 65 S GNT 25 SW ABQ 30 E 4SL
20 WNW SKX 25 ESE VTP 15 S TAD 35 E LVS.


COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC


IN THE SHORT TERM---CONVECTION IS ENHANCING FROM EASTERN
PA---EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN DE---ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF NJ INTO
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.  SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS---IN THE AXIS OF ABOVE
AVERAGE PW VALUES THAT WILL PERSIST TO THE EAST OF THE SLOW MOVING
UPSTREAM TROF---POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.  IN AREAS OF SLOW
MOVEMENT AND/OR TRAINING---ISOLATED 1-2"+ PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN
AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.  OTHERWISE---PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS---AND FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS---NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC
INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  WPC QPF LEANED TOWARD THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF MAX PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ABOVE COASTAL
AREAS--ALTHOUGH THERE IS MODEL SPREAD---ESPECIALLY AMONG THE HI
RES ARW--NMM AND NSSL WRF FOR HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS INLAND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC IN THE RIC---DC---BWI---PHL CORRIDOR.  THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA WAS ALSO CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST---BUT MAY NEED
TO BE ADJUSTED INLAND DEPENDING ON HOW CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
ENHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

SW TX---NM INTO SOUTHERN AZ

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK AREA FROM SW TEXAS---ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF NM AND INTO
SOUTHERN AZ.  OVERALL---THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE RECENT PATTERN FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST. POST FRONTAL
EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES--WHILE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL BE ENHANCED AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
WEST NORTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO INT0 SOUTHERN AZ/SOUTHERN
CA ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GREAT BASIN UPPER HIGH.   WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH QPF DETAILS---IT IS HIGHER FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM SOUTHWEST
TX---INTO LARGE PORTIONS OF NM AND SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL AZ IN THE
PERSISTENT AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES--- 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN.   ISOLATED SHORT TERM 1"+ PRECIPITATION
TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

ORAVEC
$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.