Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 300828
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
427 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

...VALID 12Z MON MAY 30 2016 - 12Z TUE MAY 31 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 N 9V9 20 WSW MBG 35 SW KY19 20 WSW KHZE 20 S K08D 15 S KD50
30 SSW CWWF 25 ENE CWWF 20 WNW CWEI 30 SE CWEI 20 NE K5H4
20 N KBAC 20 WSW FAR 20 SW FFM 15 WSW AXN 10 SSW LXL ROS
20 NNE LUM RGK 25 WNW AEL 15 N SLB 15 NNE TQE 20 NW FET HJH
25 NW SLN 15 NNE GBD 25 NE DDC 20 ENE GCK 45 ESE GLD 35 SW MCK
20 NW MCK 25 E LBF BBW 25 E ONL 40 N 9V9.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 S MRH 25 ESE SUT 35 SSE MYR 40 S MYR 30 E CHS 10 NNE CHS
30 SE SSC 15 W MEB 10 WNW JNX 20 S RZZ 10 SSW PHF 25 ESE NHK
10 SW MIV 15 N BLM 10 NNE HTO 20 SSE MTP 65 ESE MJX 80 ESE WWD
55 SE WAL 20 ESE HSE 40 SE MRH 35 S MRH.


NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

THREAT OF ISOLD TO PSBL ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE
THIS PD ACROSS THIS REGION IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING UPR TROF THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF NEAR MT/ND BORDER BY TUES MRNG.  INITIAL
HEIGHT FALLS AND INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING AREA
OF STORMS ALONG ASSOCD COLD FRONT THRU PARTS OF ND/SD BY MON AFTN
SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AS THEY TAP PROJECTED AFTN
SBCAPES OF AROUND 2 TO 3 THSD J/KG   EMPHASIS WILL SHIFT E AND SWD
ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT MON NIGHT FROM MN SWWD INTO
WRN KS WITH SEVERAL ORGANIZED STG BANDS OF TSTMS LIKELY ESPECIALLY
NEAR INTERSECTION OF SFC WAVE AND NWD MOVING WARM FRONT THROUGH
SRN MN.  PWS APCHG 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TO POOL ALONG THE BNDRY
LIKELY SUPPORTING AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNT OF BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES
THOUGH ISOLD HEAVIER SHORT TERM AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES OR MORE
WILL BE PSBL ESPECIALLY ACRS PORTIONS OF NE NEB INTO SRN MN ALONG
INTERSECTION WITH WARM FRONTAL BNDRY LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE
REGION.  ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED STORMS/PSBL MCS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
SRN END OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SRN NEB/KS WITH MODELS SHOWING
THAT AREA UNDER FAVORABLE THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE AND INCREASING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE STGR WLYS MON
EVENING.

..TX..

MUCH OF TX HAS HAS SEEN ITS SHARE OF HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN EVENTS
OF LATE WHICH HAS LOWERED FF GUIDANCE VALUES CONSIDERABLY FROM THE
PANHANDLE SWD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE MAKING IT SOMEWHAT MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL FF CONCERNS.  THAT SAID..VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ACROSS THIS AREA ON HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE
WITH BROAD WSWLY FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED
TROF ACRS THE SW EJECTING VERY WEAK IMPULSES OUT ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT A RISK AREA AT THIS
TIME.  SURFACE PATRN IS QUITE WEAK HERE WITH NO WELL DEFINED SFC
BNDRY TO FOCUS ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF A WEAKENING DRY LINE.
EARLY MORNING MCS ACRS TX APPEARS BEST HANDLED BY WRF ARW AND HRRR
GUIDANCE AS IT DROPS SEWD THRU THE CNTL AND SRN PART OF THE STATE
THREATENING PORTIONS OF S TEXAS EARLY IN THE PD FOR LOCALIZED
RUNOFF CONCERNS.  OTHERWISE...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO BE HIGHLY MESOSCALE
DRIVEN WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND OLD OUTFLOW BNDRIES PROVIDING
MAIN TRIGGERS.  BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG WITH PWS OF 1.5 TO 2
INCHES COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINS ACRS PARTS OF CNTL/SRN TX NEAR
AND EAST OF THE BIG BEND WITH EARLY MRNG MCS PROVIDING PSBL BNDRY
FOR SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MON AFTN/EVE.  BASED ON
LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE...WHERE THE STGR AND MORE ORGANIZED STORMS
DEVELOP...POTNL FOR SHORT TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WILL BE PSBL.

MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND

TD BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY SLOW MOVING THIS
PERIOD---DRIFTING NEWD ACROSS NORTHEAST SC INTO SE NC AS PER THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST.  THE REMNANT CIRC WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF
HIER PWS NEAR ITS CIRCULATION..THOUGH THE MAIN RIVER OF HIER
TROPICAL PWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF SE VA/NE NC AND NEWD INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE DELMARVA AND
SRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE PD.  SOME BURSTS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE
STILL PSBL NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER TODAY WITH SOME 1 TO 2
INCHES PSBL..BUT THE AREAL EXTENT SHOULD BE SMALL.  FOCUSED SELY
FLOW FARTHER N SHOULD SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY WIDER SWATH OF 1 TO 2
INCH RAINS INTO NE NC/SE VA AND THE SRN DELMARVA.   ISOLD FF
PROBLEMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER PERSISTENT
RAIN BANDS ACRS THE ERN CAROLINAS NEWD INTO ERN LONG ISLAND.

SULLIVAN
$$




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