Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 280054
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
853 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...VALID 01Z THU MAY 28 2015 - 12Z THU MAY 28 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...CENTRAL INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

REF METWATCH #141 VALID THROUGH 280130Z.  GUIDANCE SHOWS AN
AMPLIFYING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS WEST TX THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
ALONG THIS AXIS OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY EMERGING FROM A BROADER SCALE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE WEST.  SATL/RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE
IN CONVECTION ACRS THIS REGION WITHIN A INCREASINGLY BROAD
DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW PATRN IN ADVANCE OF WELL DEFINED 3H-2H S/WV
TROUGH PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES. GREATEST THREAT OF
ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH POTNL FOR SLOW OR NEAR STATIONARY CELLS IS
EXPECTED IN VCNTY OF STATIONARY BNDRY NEAR THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION INTO SRN KS..BUT ISOLD STG SLOW MOVING STORMS ARE PSBL NWD
INTO WRN/CNTL NEB AND FARTHER SOUTH INTO WRN TX. SOME LOCAL RUNOFF
ISSUES ARE PSBL ACRS THIS AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION/TN VALLEY....

REF METWATCH #142 VALID THROUGH 28023Z.  REMAINS OF EARLY AFTN
SQLN CONTINUING TO INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
AND HIGH MSTR AVAILABLITY COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACRS
PORTIONS OF NRN AL/NW GA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SCNTL TN.  CELL
MERGERS AND SMALL TRAINING LINE ELEMENTS ARE PSBL WHICH COULD LEAD
TO SOME ISOLD SPORTS APCHG EXISTING FFG VALUES.

...NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO EAST OK...

LATEST RAP AND MESO ANALYSIS INDICATED DECENT RECOVERY OF AIRMASS
ACRS THIS REGION BEHIND MORNING SQLN WHICH MOVED RAPIDLY ACRS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION WED AFTN.  RADAR INDICATED SOME STRG STORMS
DVLPG INVCNTY OF WEAK E/W TROF ACRS NCNTL TX WITH ADDITIONAL
STORMS DVLPG ON OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY.  LATEST HRRR
SUGGEST ACTIVITY COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACRS NE TX..BUT MODEL SUPPORT IS QUITE VARIED ACRS THIS
AREA.  FOR THAT REASON...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
HIGHLIGHT ANY SPECIFIC AREA AT THIS TIME...THOUGH GIVEN DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET/MSTR FLUX INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS
INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE REGION...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
ORGANIZED HEAVIER TSTM ACTIVITY...PSBL MCS ACTIVITY DVLPG DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.

SULLIVAN/PERIERA
$$




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