Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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735
FOUS30 KWBC 210824
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
323 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2017

...VALID 12Z TUE FEB 21 2017 - 12Z WED FEB 22 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ENE MHR 10 NNW AUN 20 NE BAB 25 WNW BLU 20 WNW BLU
10 WSW BLU 15 SSW BLU 35 SW TVL 55 NE MOD 55 NNE MCE 50 ENE MCE
40 WSW MMH 35 E FAT 35 NE VIS 25 NNE PTV 20 NNE VIS 30 ENE MCE
20 ENE MHR.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WSW RAM 30 NNE KMIS PQL 55 N MOB 60 SE NMM 30 WNW MGM
15 SSW MGM 20 WSW OZR 15 ENE PAM 60 SSW AAF.


...CENTRAL CA...

GUIDANCE AGREES THAT WHILE ADDITIONAL ERN PACIFIC RIPPLES ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO FEED UPON A DECAYING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE
FEED THROUGH TUE IN THE WAKE OF MAIN MID-UPPER TROUGH/JET
SUPPORT...THE BULK OF HEAVY PCPN FOR N-CENTRAL CA WILL ON A
DECIDEDLY DOWNWARD TREND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND. LINGERING MECHANICS THOUGH REMAIN IN
PLAY FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOWS ACROSS CENTRAL-NRN CA...PARTICULARLY INTO THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE CENTRAL SIERRA WHERE TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT ENHANCES
LIFT WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME AND SOILS HAVE HAD RECENT
HEAVY RAINS.


...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

THERE IS IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE INITIALLY FULL-LATITUDE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SPLIT WITH A VIGOROUS SRN STREAM TROUGH
DEEPENING AND CLOSING OFF WITH NEG TILT AT MID LEVELS ON A GRADUAL
BUT STEADY ESEWD TRACK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO TUE INTO WED. FAVORABLE UPPER DIFLUENCE AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
SHOULD STILL PROVIDE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WITHIN AN AREA OF
MODEST TO LOCALLY HEAVY POCKETS OF PRECIP. THIS LEADS TO SOME
WIDESPREAD 1" AMOUNTS CENTERED OVER AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE...WITH
BEST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER VALUES UPWARDS TO SVRL INCHES POSSIBLE
WITH PWS UPWARDS OF 1.25". FOLLOWED A MODEL BLEND THAT SEEMED
REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

SCHICHTEL

$$





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