Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 190646
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...VALID 06Z FRI SEP 19 2014 - 12Z SAT SEP 20 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 E KRP 10 WSW MMNL 15 WNW MMPG 25 ESE 6R6 50 S E38 45 SSW MRF
65 SE MMCS 15 E LRU TCS 55 S ABQ 20 NNW CQC 20 NW TCC 30 WNW AMA
35 SSE PPA 30 ESE CDS 30 SW RPH 10 SSE SEP 30 SE ACT 15 ENE CXO
10 N KVBS KBQX 25 E KRP.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 WNW BWD 25 SE BWD 10 SSW TPL 15 WSW AUS 25 NNE JCT
10 WSW SJT 50 N MDD 30 WSW HOB 15 NNW PEQ 15 SSE FST 30 ESE E38
10 ENE MRF 25 SW GDP 30 NW HMN 45 WNW 4CR 20 ESE CQC 50 SW TCC
15 NE CVN 40 NE PVW 40 S CDS 35 N DYS 25 WNW BWD.


...NEW MEXICO EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS...

REMNANT DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE...ALONG WITH
THE OTHER ANOMALOUS PW AXIS EXTENDING WELL N/NE  OF T.S. POLO INTO
THE TX BIG BEND...WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH STALLED W-E
DRAPED STATIONARY FRONT FROM WEST TX/BIG BEND AREA EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TX GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERSISTENT S-SE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS WRN GOMEX MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF ODILE`S SLOW MOVING CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...THOUGH THE MCV SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO NRN TX BY 00Z
SAT WILL ESSENTIALLY CLEAR NM OF ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. WEAK ANTECEDENT UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITHIN
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE MCV AND WITH
THE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

THROUGH MID-MORNING...THE ENHANCED NOCTURNALLY-AIDED ELEVATED LLVL
INFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TOWARD TOWARD GREATER UPWIND
PROPAGATION AND THUS A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF CELL TRAINING ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA... PARTICULARLY ACROSS WEST TX INTO SERN NM WHERE
THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR. ADDITIONAL
AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS (1-2+ INCHES) WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS SERN NM
AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WRN TX...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
STRONG UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND MORE DIRECT IMPACT FROM ODILE`S
REMNANT 850-500 MB CIRCULATION (PWS 2.5-3.0 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL). ELSEWHERE... AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO .50 TO
1.00 INCH...HOWEVER AS PER THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE... LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 3-6+ INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE OVERALL
MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT (WARM RAIN PROCESSES) WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED RAINFALL RATES OF 2.5+ INCHES PER HOUR.

HURLEY
$$




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