Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 040055
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
853 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

...VALID 01Z TUE AUG 04 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT AREAS FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE
STILL LOOK GOOD..SO SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THESE AREAS OR
THE PREVIOUS REASONING.
PREVIOUS DUSCUSSION FOLLOWS...

2100 UTC UPDATE

THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK WAS TO REMOVE THE SEE TEXT AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
 THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN---BEING SHEARED WITH PART OF THE
CIRCULATION SINKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF---WHILE A
SEPARATE PORTION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
WHILE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERALL WEAKENING THIS PERIOD TO THE
MID AND LOW LEVEL CENTERS--MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OFF THE NORTHEAST GULF.  THIS WILL SUPPORT
ADDITION PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA.
HOWEVER---AT THE MOMENT---THE QPF AXIS APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE
NORTH OF THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSE HHF 20 W AMA 25 SSW DHT 25 SE SPD 40 E LBL 15 NW AVK
30 W JWG 40 SSE HHF.

...ALONG THE SC AND LOWER NC COASTS...

A WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL FOCUS ONSHORE FLOW INTO COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SC AND LOWER NC.  WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
TOTALS MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE---HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC INTO LOWER NC.  WHILE FFG VALUES ARE HIGH
ACROSS COASTAL SC/NC---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM
INTENSE RAINFALL IN AREAS OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SW TO
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION PARALLEL TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS.


...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN--NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN ON A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF.  HOWEVER---WITH
PW VALUES CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS--LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES FROM
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID INTO WESTERN WY WHERE FFG VALUES ARE
RELATIVELY LOW.


...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

A SEPARATE STREAM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE
LATITUDE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP AND HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.
 WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS---WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE HI RES RUNS AND THE HI RES
MEANS.  LESS CONFIDENCE WITH DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT DETAILS---WITH
THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS USED FOR DETAILS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION---HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.

ORAVEC/TERRY
$$




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