Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 261847
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...VALID 1846Z TUE MAY 26 2015 - 12Z WED MAY 27 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



1800 UTC UPDATE

SOUTH---CENTRAL TO EASTERN OK---WESTERN AR---NORTH TO NORTHEAST TX

IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED VORT THAT HAS LIFTED
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES---WESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY
IGNITE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS---CAPE VALUES 3000 J/KG+.  CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT
WITH QPF DETAILS--BUT THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE LATEST
GFS---NAM--ECMWF---UKMET AND CMC GEM FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FROM
SOUTHERN---CENTRAL TO EASTERN OK---WESTERN AR INTO NORTH TO
NORTHEAST TX.  ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE
REGIONS WHERE RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE LOWERED FFG VALUES AND SHORT
TERM PRECIP TOTALS OF 1"+ POSSIBLE.  SEE WPC`S MESOSCALE
PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION #0134 VALID UNTIL 2353 UTC FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.


PORTIONS OF WI INTO THE WESTERN U.P. OF MI

CONCERNS FOR ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES AHEAD OF THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MS VALLEY.  WELL DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN AN AXIS OF PW VALUES
1.5-2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN AHEAD OF THIS VORT WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS THIS AFTERNOON.
 ISOLATED PRECIP TOTALS OF 1-1.5"+ IN AN HOUR MAY PRODUCE RUNOFF
ISSUES FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN WI INTO THE WESTERN U.P. OF MI.

ORAVEC
$$





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