Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 121318
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
917 AM EDT THU OCT 12 2017

...VALID 15Z THU OCT 12 2017 - 12Z FRI OCT 13 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 2 PERCENT.

RISK WAS CONSIDERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND OVER THE CAROLINAS. IN
SOUTH FLORIDA MOISTURE DEPTH WILL INCREASE AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM EAST TO WEST AS A BROAD TROUGH
ADVANCES OUT OF THE BAHAMAS. THE WIND FIELDS LACK FOCUS...AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE UNEVENLY DISTRIBUTED...SO PERSISTENT RAIN OVER
ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS UNLIKELY...THOUGH SHORT TERM HEAVY RAIN
RATES CAN BE EXPECTED. IN THE CAROLINAS...THE NAM FORECASTS A
SMALL REGION OF MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR AN ADVANCING FRONT FROM THE OUTER BANKS TOWARD
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EVEN WITHIN THE MOIST EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER AIR SUPPORT IS
LACKING...BUT WHATEVER THUNDERSTORMS DO FORM WILL BE SLOW
MOVING...PERHAPS PRODUCING A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN VERY
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. THE MINIMAL SCOPE OF THE CONVECTION...ALONG
WITH MODERATE TO HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...KEEPS THE
PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG AT LESS THAN 2 PERCENT.

BURKE/HURLEY

$$





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