Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 160641
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
240 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...VALID 06Z TUE SEP 16 2014 - 12Z WED SEP 17 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
155 SSE YUM 75 SSE YUM 60 SSW GBN 40 SSE GBN 20 SSW CGZ
10 S IWA 25 ENE SDL 60 NE SDL 40 WNW SOW 10 ENE SOW 35 SE SJN
70 NW TCS 40 NE TCS 25 WNW SRR 25 ESE SRR 15 SW ROW 15 S ATS
25 W CNM 25 WNW GDP 45 WSW GDP 70 SSE MMCS 95 N MMCU 85 NW MMCU
140 WNW MMCU 95 ENE MMHO 40 N MMHO 70 NW MMHO 155 SSE YUM.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 E SSI 20 NNE SGJ SGJ 25 SSE VQQ 20 W VQQ 30 ESE VLD
15 WNW AYS 15 SSE VDI 20 N SAV 10 W NBC 10 E HXD 45 SSE HXD
40 E SSI.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 WSW TUS 15 SW TUS 10 SE DMA 25 SSW SAD SAD 25 NE SAD
65 NNW SVC 40 N SVC 35 W TCS 20 ENE TCS 25 NNW HMN 20 NE ALM
20 SW HMN 25 E LRU 90 SW MMCS 100 SE DUG 75 SSE DUG 70 S DUG
60 SSW OLS 80 SW OLS 95 WSW OLS 85 W OLS 70 W OLS 35 WSW TUS.



SOUTHWEST

AN INCREASING HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT ON TAP THIS PERIOD
AS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF ODILE---CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA----BRINGING PW
ANOMALIES OF 2-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FROM FAR SOUTHEAST CA--FAR SOUTHERN NV INTO MUCH
OF AZ...NM AND SOUTHWEST TX.  WHILE THE ANOMALOUS PW VALUES
STRETCH ACROSS A LARGE AREA---AS MENTIONED ABOVE---MODEL CONSENSUS
IS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS THIS PERIOD FROM IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST AZ---SOUTHERN NM INTO FAR SW TX WHERE MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE STRONGEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAXIMA. CAN NOT RULE
OUT SCATTERED CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN END OF THE ANOMALOUS PW
AXIS--WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL---BUT THE SLIGHT TO
MODERATE RISK AREAS  WERE DEPICTED AS PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM
SOUTHEAST AZ INTO SOUTHERN NM AND FAR SW TX.  IN AREAS WHERE
CONVECTION ENHANCES THIS PERIOD---ISOLATED 2-4"+ AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

COASTAL SOUTHEAST AND FAR NORTHEAST FLORIDA

A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS RE-INTRODUCED ALONG COASTAL GA INTO FAR
NORTHEAST FL THIS PERIOD FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY TO
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES--- 1.5+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---WILL PERSIST
THIS PERIOD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO THE
COASTAL SOUTHEAST.  WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY AGAIN
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT IN A REGION OF ENHANCED UVVS FROM
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  ISOLATED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN THE PAST TWO DAYS ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SC AND GA---WITH THIS POTENTIAL AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
COASTAL GA INTO FAR NORTHEAST FL.  THE HI RES RUNS ARE MOST
EMPHATIC ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THESE AREAS---WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-5"+ POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC
$$





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