Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FOUS30 KWBC 010814
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
413 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

...VALID 12Z WED JUL 01 2015 - 12Z THU JUL 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 N DMO 15 W SET 30 WNW BWG 15 NW OQT 15 WNW 1A5 25 NNW GVL
15 SSE 4A9 MSL 15 SSW HKA 20 ENE HRO 10 WNW SGF 45 SSE IXD
10 W LXT 40 N DMO.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
SZL 20 WSW JEF 15 SSW VIH 25 SSE TBN 35 SSW TBN 25 N SGF
60 SSE OJC 30 S LXT SZL.


DAY 1...

...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY / MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY / TENNESSEE
VALLEY

EXPANDING MCS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NE...FAR NORTHEAST KS...AND
INTO MO EARLY THIS AM IS FEEDING OFF OF ROBUST MOISTURE FLUX
TRANSPORT (PWS APPROACHING 2 INCHES) ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ
(~40 KTS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS) POOLING INTO THE STATIONARY SURFACE
BNDRY.

THERE IS NOT AS MUCH LATITUDINAL SPREAD AMONG THE 00Z MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE WITH THE MAX RAINFALL AXIS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S 12Z
OUTPUT...WITH THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE NOW FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH
THE 1-3+ AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS FROM 12Z WED - 12Z THU ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL MO SE THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MO...FAR
SOUTHERN IL...WESTERN KY...FAR NORTHEAST AR...AND INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL TN. MORE SPREAD WAS NOTED AMONG THE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE... AND WERE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE HIGH-RES ENSEMBLE WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. WPC ONCE AGAIN LEANED HEAVILY ON THE THE
SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS AMONG THE GUIDANCE SPREAD...WITHOUT CARRYING
THE ACTIVITY TOO FAR INTO THE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS EASTERN KS
AND NORTHEAST OK. THE AREA CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE BEST COUPLING
OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS (UPPER DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE) AND MOST
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE (STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND
MOISTURE FLUX TRANSPORT ALONG WITH DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY...WITH
OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CAPE REMAINING BETWEEN 1000-2000+ J/KG).

THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS AM WILL
CONTINUE TO ENERGIZE THE MCS AS IT EXPANDS ACROSS THE LOWER MO
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AND SPREADS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MO...NORTHEAST AR...FAR SOUTHERN IL...AND WESTERN KY/TN LATER THIS
MORNING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE REMNANT MCV TO SPARK
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION INTO THE LOWER TN VALLEY.


OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE A NEARLY
IDENTICAL TRACK (THOUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER) AS THE ONE THIS
MORNING...I.E. FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
LOWER MO VALLEY. THUS EXPECT THE NEXT MCS TO ONCE AGAIN GET GOING
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SAME REGION...THOUGH PERHAPS A BIT EARLIER IN
THE EVENING (~3-6 HRS EARLIER PERHAPS) BASED ON THE SLIGHTLY
FASTER UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE.
OVERALL...PER THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-6+ INCHES
FROM BOTH MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS COMBINED ARE
ANTICIPATED...WITH THE 4KM NAM CONEST PARTICULARLY BULLISH WITH
10-14" ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WEST-CENTRAL MO WHERE THE
MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS DRAWN.

HURLEY
$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.