Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 091311
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
911 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2014

...VALID 15Z WED JUL 09 2014 - 12Z THU JUL 10 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE GREAT BASIN

THE RECENT MONSOONAL PATTERN IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE THIS PERIOD.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A
MOISTURE PLUME STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE GREAT
BASIN---SOUTHWEST ON THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE GREAT BASIN
UPPER HIGH. PW ANOMALIES IN THIS PLUME WILL CONTINUE IN THE 2-4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN RANGE.  WEAK IMPULSES REMAIN
EMBEDDED WITHIN AND ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER HIGH OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE AREAS.  HOWEVER---THE RECENT PATTERN OF ISOLATED
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH
ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION DOES ORGANIZE.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS HIGH AT 3-4 INCHES IN 6 HOURS AND GLOBAL
MODEL QPF IS WELL BELOW THESE NUMBERS.


PETERSEN
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