Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 011321
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
921 AM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016

...VALID 15Z SUN MAY 01 2016 - 12Z MON MAY 02 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 ENE HEZ 30 WNW PIB 15 NE HBG 15 N MOB 20 WSW JKA 40 NNW KVOA
10 S KVKY 30 SE KDLP 15 NNE S58 20 SSW SRN 10 E KCRH 30 SSW KVBS
20 SSW BPT 25 N BPT 15 S DRI ACP 20 SE ESF 15 ENE HEZ.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NE ARA 10 SE HDC 15 SE HSA 20 SSE KMIS 30 NNE KSPR
20 ESE KVBS 15 WNW 7R5 25 E CWF 15 NE ARA.


UPPER TX COAST---CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN LA INTO SOUTHWEST MS

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND NEAR THE GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TX COAST---ACROSS
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN LA AND INTO SOUTHERN MS.  THE FORECAST BACKING
OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO IS ALREADY FIRING CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST
INTO SOUTHERN LA.  CONVECTION LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD AS THIS MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS ALONG WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAXIMA CROSSING
THE REGION...AS SHOWN IN THE SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS.

THERE IS A MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THESE AREAS.  THE 08-12Z RUNS OF THE HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH
AND EXPERIMENTAL RUNS...ALONG WITH WITH THE 00Z RUN OF THE SPC WRF
TO SHOW 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 INCHES.  THE
0000 HI RES NSSL WRF DEVELOPED THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH IN THE
GULF SO WITH ACTIVITY ALREADY HAVING DEVELOPED INLAND LOOKS TO BE
THE LEAST RELIABLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

WITH THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA HAVING LOWERED FFG VALUES---FLOODING
SHOULD OCCUR WHERE SLOW MOVING CELLS PRODUCE 2" PER HOUR RATES.
SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION SHOULD BRING THE CELLS INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO THE EXCESSIVE RAIN
THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN THEN.

PETERSEN
$$





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