Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 220123
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
823 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...VALID 03Z SAT NOV 22 2014 - 00Z SUN NOV 23 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...CENTRAL TX NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN OK...

A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT WILL BE UNFOLDING OVER THIS PART OF
THE COUNTRY THIS PERIOD..AHEAD OF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING CLOSED SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW NOW VICINITY OF
SOUTHWESTERN AZ.  LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINS HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN UP THRU EASTERN TX INTO AR ON A MODEST 20KTS OR SO OF LOW
LEVEL JET AND SOME INCREASE IN PWS..WITH THESE RAINS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.  BY THAT TIME..AN IMPROVING HEIGHT FALL
REGIME..A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND ADVECTION OF HIGHER PWS
INTO THE REGION..AND A SOMEWHAT IMPROVING UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN
AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW AND BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL
JETS..WILL SUPPORT THE INCREASING RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  IN
GENERAL..THE MODEL QPFS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT..WITH ALL
INDICATING A RAINFALL MAXIMUM VICINITY OF CENTRAL TX UP INTO PARTS
OF SOUTHERN OK.  THE HEAVIER RAINS SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY..WITH SOME LOCAL 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS
IN SEVERAL HOURS POSSIBLE AND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 2-3+ INCH
TOTALS THIS ENTIRE PERIOD..BOTH OF WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED RUNOFF CONCERNS.  FF GUIDANCE VALUES ARE RATHER HIGH..SO
DIDN`T OUTLOOK AN AREA AT THIS TIME.

TERRY
$$




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