000
FOUS30 KWBC 161805
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
204 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...VALID 18Z SUN JUN 16 2013 - 00Z TUE JUN 18 2013...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


...KS INTO OK...

STILL LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ESPECIALLY OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING..WITH THE LATEST MODELS RUNS AGAIN FORECASTING A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO ROLL OUT OF THE KS HIGH PLAINS
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OK AND WESTERN AR.  THE H5 S/WV WHICH
SHOULD AID IN THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL CO AND WILL TAP INTO A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET..WITH THE S/WV GENERALLY DROPPING A LITTLE SOUTH OF EAST THRU
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTS EASTWARD ALSO WHILE WEAKENING LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.  ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES AS
TO WHERE EXACTLY THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS..THERE CONTINUES TO BE MORE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MESO-SCALE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION..SO CONFIDENCE IS AT LEAST
RATHER HIGH ON THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THE 12Z RUNS
HAVE COME IN A LITTLE FARTHER WEST WITH THE RAINFALL MAX OVER
KS/OK THAN DID LAST NIGHTS 00Z ECMWF HIRES..SO STAYED WITH THIS
SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT.  SYSTEM SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE..BUT STILL
EXPECT SOME LOCAL 1-2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A COUPLE/SEVERAL
HOURS..WITH SOME ISOLATED 2-3 INCH TOTALS LIKELY THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD.  FF GUIDANCE VALUES RATHER HIGH..SO DID NOT OUTLOOK A
THREAT AREA AT THIS TIME.

TERRY
$$