Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 260130
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...VALID 03Z WED NOV 26 2014 - 00Z THU NOV 27 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

CONCERNS REMAIN FOR LOCALIZED RUNOFF PROBLEMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THRU THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PD WITHIN THE AXIS
OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT VALUES THAT CONTINUE TO TO SLOWLY PUSH
EWD ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED SW/NE
OVER THE FL PENINSULA. SFC DATA INDICATED A LOW PRES SYSTEM ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE ERN GULF IN LINE WITH MODEL FCST THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS CNTL FL EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR THE NC COAST BY WED MRNG. FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING WARM
AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL
FAVOR MULTIPLE LINEAR BANDS OF STRONG CONVECTION...WHICH WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS MOST OF THE
SIGNFICANT RAIN ACRS CNTL FL DIMINISHING BETWEEN 06-09Z WHILE
THERE IS MULTI-MODEL SUPPORT FOR SOME INTENSE CONVECTIVE BANDS
ALSO IMPACTING EASTERN NC AND ESP THE OUTER BANKS LATER TONIGHT.
EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS...WITH
ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME AND ESP WITH VERY HIGH FFG VALUES...BUT
SOME LOCALIZED RUNOFF PROBLEMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SULLIVAN

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