Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 222219
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
618 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017

...VALID 2218Z THU JUN 22 2017 - 12Z FRI JUN 23 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ESE ANJ 35 NNE CXPC 10 WNW CWGL 25 NW ERI 10 SSW IPT MUI
10 NW HGR 20 ENE PHD 15 ESE ASW 10 N IJX 30 SE LWD 25 E SLB MKT
20 NE EAU 20 ESE ANJ.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 S KXIH 10 WSW GLS IAH 35 NNW UTS 10 ESE 3T1 30 W RUE
10 WSW SAR 30 W EYE ZZV 20 SSE MGW 30 ESE HSP EHO 20 SSE LZU
10 N 11J 40 WSW PAM 40 SE RAM.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 WSW PIE 35 WNW BKV 35 ESE VLD 10 S VDI JYL 15 SE LHW NIP
20 NW ISM 25 NNW PGD 20 S SRQ 15 WSW PIE.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
SFY 10 W OLZ 15 SW FKA 15 ENE ONA 10 NNW GRB 25 NW TVC PZQ
40 SSW CWWX 15 N CTZR 15 ENE BIV SFY.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 N 7R3 25 SW SRN 15 SE KCRH 30 W KVBS 10 S LFK 30 ENE OSA
20 S RUE 10 WSW MDH 20 S BAK 30 SSE ILN 15 W CRW BLF 25 WSW TNB
10 WSW ATL 15 SSW OZR 30 S HRT RAM 20 ENE KMDJ 10 WNW 2GL
10 SSE HDC 20 NNW NMM 10 NW 1M4 40 NNE MSL 65 E MKL 20 ESE MKL
35 SSE OLV 20 W HKS 25 N 7R3.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSE MEI 20 WSW BHM 20 WNW ALX 15 N NSE 15 ENE KMIS 20 NE AXO
NEW 40 SSE MEI.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 ESE TXK 10 N SRC 10 SSW CGI 25 S CIR 15 E M97 15 NNE GLH
25 NW HEZ 30 NE LFT 15 WSW 7R4 20 S KCMB 10 SSW KVBS BPT
20 NE JAS 30 SSW SHV 15 ESE TXK.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NW POE 10 SSW SHV 25 WNW ELD 20 SSE SGT 25 N GLH 10 SW BQP
AEX 20 WNW LFT KCMB 10 NW 7R5 20 NW POE.


2200 UTC UPDATE...

MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DAY 1 ERO BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL AND MESO/CONVECTIVE TRENDS...ALONG WITH THE MORE
RECENT SHORT-TERM CAM PROGS.

HURLEY

1500 UTC UPDATE...

AS PER SR WFO/RFCS AND WPC 1430 UTC COLLABORATION CALL...DECIDED
TO REMOVE THE PORTION OF THE PREVIOUS WPC DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK HIGH RISK AND MODERATE RISK AREAS FROM ERN TX TO THE LEFT
OF THE INLAND TRACK OF CINDY. LATEST RADAR AND STLT TRENDS DO NOT
SEEM TO SUPPORT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FORECAST BY THE NAM
AND SOME MESO MODELS OVER ERN TX TODAY AND EXPECTED AMOUNTS OFFER
A LINGERING BUT LESSENED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF THREAT POTENTIAL.

SCHICHTEL


...EXCESSIVE RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM
CINDY...

*SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING REMAINS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CINDY.*

EXTENSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
ON THURSDAY, AS TROPICAL STORM CINDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
PER LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM NHC. THE OVERALL ASYMMETRIC PATTERN
WILL PERSIST WITH MOST OF THE TROPICAL RAINS OCCURRING INVOF THE
MODERATE SIZE CIRCULATION AND EAST OF THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE PLUME, SURGING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. ANOTHER AREA THAT WILL BEGIN
TO GET INTO THE ACTION IS UP THE OH RIVER, AS THIS MOISTURE BEGINS
TO FOCUS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE AND INTERACT WITH THE WESTERLIES
ALOFT. THE GUIDANCE HAS THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN AND SCENARIO
IN REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT ALONG WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
LOCATIONS FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN. THE BIGGEST AREAS OF CONCERN IS NEAR
CINDY AND ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OR FROM JUST NORTH OF IAH/GLS
THROUGH EASTERN TX/LFK INTO NWRN LA/SHV INTO SRN-SERN AR/ELD AND
EASTERN LIT INTO EASTERN-NERN AR/JUST WEST OF MEM TO JBR TO WHERE
THE MS RIVER MEETS THE OH. WITHIN THIS AXIS AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EASILY LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES UP
TO 10-12 INCHES. AS A RESULT, WPC WENT WITH A MODERATE AND HIGH
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN IN THIS CORRIDOR. ALSO, MULTIPLE FEEDER
BANDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOCUSED ON THE
WESTERN GULF COAST OF LA AND COASTAL AREAS/SOUTHERN MS/AL AND
EXTREME WESTERN FL PANHANDLE, THOUGH THIS REMAINS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN AND TOUGH TO PEG THE EXACT LOCATION OF THESE MESO
FEATURES. IN THESE SOUTH TO NORTH TRAINING CONVECTIVE BANDS, WPC
WENT WITH 1-3 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS BUT VALUES COULD EASILY
APPROACH 7-8 INCHES IN PROLONGED BANDS. WPC WENT WITH A RATHER
LARGE MODERATE THREAT HERE IN ATTEMPT TO CAPTURE MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THESE TROPICAL BANDS. FINALLY, MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH THE
WESTERLIES SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO FLOURISH OVER TN/KY AND SOUTHERN
IL/IN/OH WITH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES IS PROGGED BUT UP TO
4 POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOWER OH RIVER AND WPC INTRODUCED
A SLIGHT HERE.

FOR MORE ON CINDY, PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.


...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED FROM PARTS OF
THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND VERY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL INTERACT WITH
INCREASING AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE, PWS AOA 2 INCHES. FAVORABLE
RIGHT HAND ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS SHOULD FUEL THE ENHANCED
VERTICAL LIFT ALONG THE WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM MN/IA TO MI. A MULTI-MODEL APPROACH WAS TAKEN FOR
QPF WITH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM IA/SRN MN
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL WI INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI. WPC KEPT
CONTINUITY HERE WITH KEEPING A SLIGHT THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN.

MUSHER

$$





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