Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 020621
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
220 AM EDT SAT AUG 02 2014

...VALID 06Z SAT AUG 02 2014 - 12Z SUN AUG 03 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ESE CHS 35 NNE CHS 20 SSE CTZ 20 NNE FFA 70 ENE FFA
45 NE HSE 20 SSW SUT 20 ESE CHS.


...ERN NC/SC...

SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF UPR TROF FROM THE GT LAKES/MIDWEST WILL
MAINTAIN UNSETTLE CONDS ACRS THIS AREA WITH THREAT OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY ACRS ERN NC GIVEN PROXIMITY OF DEEP MSTR
PLUME NEAR THE EAST COAST.  DEEP LAYERED SWLY FLOW PATRN WILL GIVE
POTNL FOR SOME TRAINING OF CELLS ALONG THE NC COAST INTO EXTREME
SRN NEW ENGLAND.  SATL/RADAR IMAGERY ALREAD SHOWING EXPANDING AREA
OF TSTMS  EXPANDING NWWD JUST OFF THE SC/NC COASTS AS OF 06Z IN
ADVANCE OF WEAK UPR IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD ACRS NRN GA/SC.  EXPECT
BROAD 1 TO 2 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER ERN PORTIONS OF
SC/NC WITH ISOLD AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES OR MORE GIVEN THE 2 INCH
PWS ALONG THE COAST.  THESE ADDITIONAL RAINS OVER ALREADY
SATURATED CONDS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS COULD LEAD TO SOME RUNOFF
ISSUES.

...SW U.S...

LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATRN IN THE WEST WITH MONSOON MSTR
CONTINUING TO LIFT NWD AROUND WRN PORTION OF MEAN RIDGE OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES.  AT THE SAME TIME..MODELS SHOW MID/UPR CIRC LIFTING
NWD ACRS NRN BAJA INTO SRN CA BY SUN MRNG.  PWS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN HI ACRS PORTIONS OF SRN CA INTO SRN AZ AND THE COMBINATION
OF THIS HIGH MSTR...DAYTIME HEATING..AND IMPULSES LIFTING NWWD
BETWEEN THE UPR LOW AND ROCKIES RIDGE..EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHWERS/TSTMS TO DVLP DURING PEAK HEATING AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION
OF WRN NM..AZ..AND SRN CA..WITH WIDELY SCTD STORMS FARTHER N INTO
THE CNTL GT BASIN/SRN ROCKIES.  THE GFS WAS DISCOUNTED DUE TO
FEEDBACK ISSUES..BUT PATRN IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZED STORMS
THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLD
RUNOFF ISSUES.  GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD..DID NOT HIGHLIGHT A
SLIGHT RISK AREA AT THIS TIME..BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SULLIVAN
$$





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