Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 041847
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
146 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015

...VALID 18Z WED MAR 04 2015 - 00Z FRI MAR 06 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNW SHD 30 NNE LWB 20 ENE BKW 15 NNW BLF 20 ENE LNP
15 SW LNP 15 WSW 1A6 30 S EKQ 30 SSE GLW 30 SW HOP 35 ENE DYR
15 NE HKA 20 NW BYH 25 NE ARG 20 SE POF 20 SSW PAH 35 NW HOP
30 S OWB 25 SSE OWB FTK 20 NW FFT 30 SSE CVG 30 SE LUK 10 SE UNI
30 ENE PKB 10 N MGW 20 NE 2G4 25 W MRB 20 NNW SHD.


MADE VIRTUALLY NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.  THIS WILL BE
A FLUID SITUATION..WITH THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS CHANGING TO
FROZEN PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST.

UNTIL THE CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION..THE LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUING IN ADVANCE OF THE POSITIVE TILTED
MID/UPPER TROF EJECTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND SOME HEAVY TO POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAINLY IN THE OH
RIVER VALLEY.  THIS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH A MOIST
H85 SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND POOLING OF MOISTURE OF AOA
1.25 INCH PWS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING ARCTIC COLD FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME TRAINING/REPEAT CELL ACTIVITY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
LOCALIZED SHORT-TERM RUNOFF ISSUES OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT MOIST CONDITIONS (WITH 6 HOURLY FFG OVER MANY AREAS
AROUND OR LESS THAN 1 INCH").

TERRY


$$




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