Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 071852
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 PM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015

...VALID 21Z TUE JUL 07 2015 - 12Z WED JUL 08 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 SE MLC 10 W GVT 10 NNW GTU 10 E ERV 45 WSW DRT 55 S 6R6
30 WSW 6R6 35 N 6R6 10 W SWW 15 WSW LTS 20 NE HBR 25 E JWG
10 NNW SWO 15 ESE BVO 35 SW TBN 25 WSW FAM 35 S BMG 15 NW CVG
LUK 10 ENE LUK 45 SE LUK 30 E LEX 25 N SME 15 WSW GLW 15 NE JBR
15 SSE RKR 45 SE MLC.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 E MLC 15 SSE GYI 25 N 05F 20 WNW 6R9 25 NW JCT 20 NNE E29
15 NW SJT 45 NNE ABI 20 NNW SPS 10 W OUN 15 ESE GMJ 15 NW CGI
25 ESE HSB 15 SSW EHR 30 ESE PAH 20 SSE FLP 30 E MLC.


1900 UTC UPDATE

CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL TX---CENTRAL TO EASTERN OK--NORTHWEST
AR---SOUTHERN MO---KY---FAR SOUTHERN IL AND FAR SOUTHERN IN

CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WERE
TO EXTEND THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO EASTERN
KY TO COVER THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH 1200 UTC.  A HIGH RISK
AREA WAS INTRODUCED FROM EASTERN OK INTO NORTHWEST AR AND FAR
SOUTHWEST MO WHERE TRAINING OF CELLS IS LIKELY THIS
PERIOD---INITIALLY IN WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION AND THEN LATER IN A SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTH
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.  WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY THIS PERIOD FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX--ACROSS CENTRAL
TO EASTERN OK---CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN MO---AND THEN EASTWARD ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER ACROSS MOST OF KY INTO SOUTHWEST WV.  A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THESE REGIONS WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION THIS PERIOD IN AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
PW VALUES STRETCHING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  TRAINING OF CELLS IS A
SIGNIFICANT RISK THIS PERIOD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THIS
TRAINING WILL BE IN A WEST TO EASTERLY DIRECTION FROM EASTERN
OK---ACROSS NORTHERN AR---SOUTHERN MO AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OH RIVER WHERE LOW LEVEL WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  FARTHER TO THE WEST---THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FROM
NORTH CENTRAL TX INTO CENTRAL TO EASTERN OK AHEAD OF THE MCV
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TX---WITH TRAINING OF CELLS IN A
SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LIKELY
TONIGHT---CONTINUING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.  THERE IS A STRONG
MODEL SIGNAL FOR VERY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
THESE AREAS--LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THE HEAVY
RAIN FORECAST THIS PERIOD.  AREAL AVERAGE 2-4" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THESE AREAS---WITH HEAVIER TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 5" WHERE THE
MOST PERSISTENT TRAINING OCCURS.

NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA---GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES

NO CHANGES TO THINKING ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION.  OVERALL---THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD PUSH OF THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND TOWARD THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
AND A LEADING SLOW MOVING VORT FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.  PW VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF BOTH THE CALIFORNIA CLOSED LOW AND GREAT
BASIN VORT FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA--INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL DEFINED AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES--WIDESPREAD SCATTERED
CONVECTION LIKELY AGAIN FROM NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA---ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  ISOLATED HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY SLOW MOVING CELLS.


ORAVEC


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