Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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103
FOUS30 KWBC 252230
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
629 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2017

...VALID 2229Z SUN JUN 25 2017 - 12Z MON JUN 26 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
100 SE HXD 50 ESE SSI 20 ESE NRB DAB 10 ESE MCO 30 SSE BOW
45 E APF 40 SE APF 20 W APF 15 SSE MCF 10 S GNV 35 W VQQ
30 S VLD 25 SE AAF 40 S DTS 30 NNE KVOA 10 ESE BVE 25 SSW P92
25 S BPT 10 SSW LBX 25 NW KBBF 10 SW KOPM 35 N HRL 15 E BKS
50 E COT 10 WNW COT 40 SE MMPG MMPG 25 N UVA ILE 25 N UTS
25 SSW ACP 15 SSW GPT 35 WNW NSE 10 ENE 11J 10 SSE DBN 20 NE OGB
45 ENE HSE.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 N SAF 20 WSW RTN 40 E MYP 10 N AFF 35 S LIC 25 NE EHA HHF
15 NE CDS 35 NE SNK 20 ESE MDD 25 W PEQ 60 SW MMCS 60 SSW DMN
20 W SVC 45 S SOW 50 SW INW 20 NNE PRC 25 WSW 40G 20 ENE 40G
10 E INW 15 E SJN 15 S GNT 35 ENE GUP 25 N SAF.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 SSE CHS 40 ENE SSI JAX 30 E VLD 25 NW 40J AAF 15 WSW PFN
15 SW DTS 15 SSW JKA 20 WNW PNS 20 N MAI 20 WSW VDI 45 WSW MYR
20 SSE MYR 45 SSE CHS.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NW ODO 10 SW GDP 40 WSW MMCS 25 SSW LRU 30 SSW HMN
30 WNW ATS 25 NNW ROW 30 NNW 4CR 25 ENE CQC 40 WNW TCC
55 SSE RTN 20 W CAO 25 NNE DHT 30 S PPA 35 SW CDS 35 WNW SNK
25 NW ODO.


2230 UPDATE...

MADE A FEW MAINLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE DAY 1 ERO...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BASED ON THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND
CONVECTIVE TRENDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN A DIFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...ALONG WITH
INCREASING RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION FORCING VIA THE CURVED UPPER JET
STREAK OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY...WILL FUEL MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
FURTHERING THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE HEAVIER CORES WILL BE
THE STRONG DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY (MIXED LAYER CAPES 2000-3000
J/KG)...ANOMALOUS DEEP MOISTURE (PWS ~2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL)...AND THE STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY (UPSLOPE)
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE DEGREE OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR
AOA 40 KTS)...ALONG WITH THE SUB-CLOUD DRY AIR AND DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY...WILL FAVOR A FAIRLY STRONG OUTFLOW COMPONENT AND
INCREASED FORWARD THE PROPAGATION WITH TIME THIS
EVENING...EVIDENCED BY THE MODEL FORECAST NORTHWESTERLY CORFIDI
VECTORS RISING TO 15-20+ KTS. WHILE THIS WILL REDUCE THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL NONETHELESS
FAVOR ROBUST SHORT TERM RAINFALL RATES...TO THE TUNE OF 1.5-2.0+
INCHES/HOUR UNDERNEATH THE STRONGEST CORES WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK
REGION PER THE LATEST HIGH RES CAMS.

HURLEY


...SERN US/CENTRAL GULF COAST TO TX/NM...

THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND ACROSS TX INTO
NM. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL INTERACT WITH CONTINUED
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME ORGANIZATION. LIGHT STEERING FLOW
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL KEEP FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE FORECAST, AS
HI-RES SUITE INDICATE SOME VERY LOCALIZED IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS. ONE
AREA THE HI-RES MODELS PREFER FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALONG
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC INTO SOUTH GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE AND WPC
UPGRADED HERE TO A SLIGHT THREAT. MEANWHILE BACK UPSTREAM TO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, POSSIBLE ROUNDS OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY
AND PICK BACK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON MORNING. WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE SWRN UPPER RIDGE WILL STREAM SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND WEST TX TO INTERACT WITH
MOIST UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR POSSIBLE ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS FROM NERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND AN
ARRAY OF HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST NOT JUST ORGANIZATION BUT POTENTIAL
EXCESSIVE RAINS. THEN THIS AFTN, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY TO HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS SERN/SOUTHERN NM INTO PERHAPS WEST TX. WPC ALSO WENT WITH A
SLIGHT THREAT GIVEN STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS.


MUSHER

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