Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 260634
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
231 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...VALID 06Z THU MAR 26 2015 - 12Z FRI MAR 27 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

...SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...

UNIQUE CIRCUMSTANCES COMBINE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
WHAT COULD BE CHARACTERIZED AS FLASH FLOODING TODAY OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND. SHARPLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BY NORTHEAST
RIVER FORECAST CENTER TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF
SNOWMELT LIQUID DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS. AT THE SAME
TIME...ARRIVAL OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY ROOTED ALOFT...AND NUMEROUS
00Z HI-RES MODELS INDICATE A SWATH OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL TO OCCUR
OVER RHODE ISLAND...EASTERN CT...AND EASTERN MA. THE WPC FORECAST
PLACES AVERAGE AREAL PRECIPITATION NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 1 INCH IN
THIS SMALL REGION...WITH MOST OF IT LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE
DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THURSDAY. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
SNOW MELT...COLD GROUND...AND ABSENCE OF THE VEGETATION TO
INTERCEPT THE WATER...THIS RAINFALL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE
LOCAL FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FROM HARTFORD TO PROVIDENCE AND
ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SIDES OF BOSTON.


...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HAD BEEN OBSERVED TO
PRODUCE LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO AS MUCH AS 1.25 INCHES
IN THREE HOURS. THE EVENT...WHICH WAS A GREATER FLASH FLOOD THREAT
EARLIER WEDNESDAY EVENING...HAD TRANSITIONED TOWARD QUICKER
PROGRESSION WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE SCALE COLD POOLS. TRAINING
COULD INCREASE RAIN TOTALS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...WHOSE CORE WAS LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL KY TOWARD SOUTHWEST
OH. INSTABILITY WAS LESS WITH EASTERN EXTENT...HOWEVER...REALLY
PLACING A CAP ON POTENTIAL RAIN AMOUNTS. THERE ARE ONLY LOW ODDS
OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OF 1.50 INCHES IN 3
HOURS.

BURKE
$$





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