Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 190058
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
858 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2017

...VALID 01Z TUE SEP 19 2017 - 12Z TUE SEP 19 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 SW EMP 35 N TOP AFK OMA 10 SW DNS 20 NE SLB 25 NE AXA
15 SW MCW 20 ENE AMW 15 ESE OXV 10 SSE OTM 15 SSE MUT 15 NNE TIP
10 E DNV 10 N EYE 15 E MIE 25 NW AOH 25 NNW AOH 20 NE FDY
25 NNW SGH 20 SSE BAK 30 SE HSB 10 NNE CIR 20 WSW ARG 15 SE RUE
35 NNW RUE ASG GCM 25 E SWO 15 N PNC 30 SW EMP.


...OHIO VALLEY / MIDWEST...

ALTHOUGH NOT PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEIGHT FALLS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL PRODUCE A
DIFLUENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WASHING OVER THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE IN EASTERN ILLINOIS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. BALLOON SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SAMPLED DEEP
MOIST PROFILES WITH SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES TO PROMOTE DEEP
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SLOW MOVING CELLS WERE ALREADY
ONGOING IN PARTS OF THE REGION AT 0030Z. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
INFLOW AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE
OVERLY ORGANIZED...BUT RAIN RATES AVERAGING 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES IN
AN HOUR BENEATH THE HEAVIEST CELLS...COULD LEAD TO RAPID RUNOFF IN
URBAN AREAS OR ANY MORE SENSITIVE BASINS.


...OKLAHOMA / KANSAS...

ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY...GENERALLY LOW PRESSURES / LEE TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN ESTABLISHED AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A LARGER
TROUGH IN THE WEST. BY MORNING THE GREAT PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET /
ENHANCED FLOW SPEEDS WITHIN THE LEE TROUGH...ARE FORECAST TO
PROMOTE FOCUSED WARM ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN
KANSAS. MODEL QPFS ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS OF
HEAVY RAIN HERE...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
COULD YIELD CLUSTERS OF LATE NIGHT / EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND GENERALLY SLOW MEAN LAYER WIND
SPEEDS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN RECENT WET WEATHER AND SOME LOWERED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES.

BURKE
$$





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