Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 280818
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
418 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

...VALID 12Z THU APR 28 2016 - 12Z FRI APR 29 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 S DAY 50 SE ILN 25 SSW HTS 15 NNW LNP 20 W 1A6 30 E GLW
15 SE FTK 25 N HNB 20 SSE DEC 20 NNE DEC 10 N DNV MIE 10 S DAY.


SOUTHERN PLAINS

A BROAD SLIGHT RISK AREA DEPICTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO LIE THIS PERIOD ACROSS
NORTH TX.  AS THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOWS
BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD---STRENGTHENING INFLOW INTO THIS BOUNDARY
AND INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL
SUPPORT INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH THE DETAILS OF THE CONVECTION---GIVEN A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD AS
TO WHERE MAX AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE---BELIEVE THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
SOMEWHERE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK.   WHILE
FFG VALUES ARE CURRENTLY HIGH---THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION PRIOR TO 1200 UTC FRI AND TRAINING POTENTIAL OF
CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY--WARRANTS A SLIGHT
RISK.

NORTHEAST NC

A SLIGHT RISK WAS ADDED FOR AREAS OF NORTHEAST NC THAT HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.  THIS IS ALONG THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT
THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE UPCOMING
PERIOD.  MUCH OF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT LATE
THURSDAY INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF FRIDAY WHERE PW VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AND MUCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.    WITH RADAR
ESTIMATES SHOWING WIDESPREAD 2-4" OF RAIN ALREADY HAVING FALLEN
ACROSS NORTHEAST NC...AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY---RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM
REPEAT ACTIVITY THAT MAY BE SLOW MOVING OR TRAIN IN A GENERAL WEST
TO EAST DIRECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

FFG VALUES REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.  IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT AREA OF PRECIPITATION
MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS---ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY FIRE AHEAD OF
AN UPSTREAM AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD.  ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE
FROM ISOLATED SHORT TERM PRECIP TOTALS OF .50-1".

ORAVEC
$$





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