Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 240749
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2017

...VALID 12Z FRI FEB 24 2017 - 12Z SAT FEB 25 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 SW CWSN 15 SSE BKL LHQ 40 NE LEX 20 NW FFT 10 W GEZ
10 SW AZO 25 NE MBS 30 NNE P58 25 SSW CYVV.


...LOWER MICHIGAN / INDIANA / OHIO / KENTUCKY...

A DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM MISSOURI THIS MORNING TOWARD
LOWER MICHIGAN BY EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES JUST OVER ONE
INCH WILL STRETCH OUT AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...PUSHING
SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES. UNUSUALLY WARM AIR IN THE WARM SECTOR COMBINED WITH
SEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL YIELD MODEST CAPE VALUES AT LEAST
500 J/KG IN MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE...AND UP TO 1000 J/KG IN SOME
GUIDANCE. THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF EVENT-TOTAL RAINFALL...EXCEEDING
ONE INCH AREAL AVERAGE...WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL BE ESPECIALLY LONG LIVED
HERE...WITH WARM ADVECTION FOLLOWED LATER BY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS.

CONFIDENCE IN QPF PLACEMENT IS HIGHEST IN THE COLD SECTOR...AND
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. FARTHER
SOUTH IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY CAPTURE MULTIPLE NARROW
SWATHS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FROM THE OUTBREAK OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 1
OUTLOOK. RAPID STORM MOTION WILL LIMIT OVERALL RAINFALL
POTENTIAL...BUT UNSEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARGUE
FOR RESPECTABLE SHORT TERM RAIN RATES WITH ACCUMULATIONS OVER A
HALF INCH IN ONE OUR OR ONE INCH IN 2-3 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH FURTHER AMPLIFIES TOWARD BECOMING NEUTRALLY
TILTED...THERE SHOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHORT TERM BOUTS OF
TRAINING CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY OVER PARTS OF
IN/OH/KY/MI...WHERE CORFIDI VECTORS AND SUPERCELL MOTION DO NOT
DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE 0-6 KM MEAN WIND. WHEREVER TRAINING OCCURS
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE COULD BE EXCEEDED.

BURKE
$$




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