Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 270824
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
424 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...VALID 12Z WED MAY 27 2015 - 12Z THU MAY 28 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



09 UTC UPDATE

NORTH/NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST TX INTO EAST OK...

VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA IMPACTED BY UNPRECEDENTED
RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS AND MONTH... AS HI-RES GUIDANCE AND
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE ADDING VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO THE
IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM AND NEXT 24 HRS. TWO CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURRING AT THE MOMENT... ONE NEAR
NERN OK AND ANOTHER MORE LARGER AREA ACROSS NERN/NRN TX. THE
SMALLER ZONE OVER NERN OK APPEARS TO BE FADING BUT SPREADING
DOWNSTREAM TOWARD NWRN AR/SWRN MO AS MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS
LOCATION BEING HIGHLIGHTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY NERN/ERN OK. MEANWHILE... THE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF
CONVECTIVE RAINS OVER NERN TX IS BEGINNING TO ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST POSSIBLY TOWARD SERN TX/SWRN LA. NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE
HAS MUCH OF AN IDEA ON THIS ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR THE SPC WRF BUT
THIS MODEL APPEARED TOO SLOW. DUE TO THE LACK OF SUPPORTABLE
GUIDANCE... THIS FCST FOR HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAIN IS RATHER HUMBLING
AS WPC CARRIED A SEE TEXT FOR
WHATS LEFT OF THE MESOSCALE FEATURE TOWARD SERN TX AND THEN
POSSIBLY RE-DEVELOP HEAVY RAINS ACROSS ERN OK INTO NRN/NERN TX.
STAY POSTED TO WPC`S MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSIONS INCLUDING
THE ACTIVE #0137 AND #0138 VALID FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS.

MUSHER
$$




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