Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 030618
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
117 AM EST TUE MAR 03 2015

...VALID 06Z TUE MAR 03 2015 - 12Z WED MAR 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 WSW 2G4 EKN 20 SSE 48I 20 SSW 48I 15 W CRW 20 WSW JKL
10 N SME 25 NNW EKQ 20 NE CKV 40 SE PAH 10 E PAH 30 ENE M30
20 NE OWB 30 NNE LOU 10 S LUK 35 ESE ILN 15 NNW UNI 25 WNW PKB
15 NE PKB 30 S HLG 20 ESE AFJ 15 WSW 2G4.



SRN OH VALLEY INTO SW PA/WV...

STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WAA PATRN SETTING UP IN ADVANCE OF POS
TILTED UPR TROF EJECTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST THROUGH THE
SRN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO POTNL HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN ACRS PARTS
OF THE OH/MID MS AND TN VALLEYS WITH WINTRY MIX LIKELY FARTHER
NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND.  MODELS SHOW REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING INITIAL SFC LOW MOVING ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST EARLY TUES IN
RESPONSE TO WEAKENING S/WV EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF A MORE AMPLIFIED
UPR TROF DVLPG SWD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS TUES/TUES NIGHT.  THIS LEAD
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH RAPIDLY NEWD WITH A BAND OF WAA PCPN
SPREADING RAPIDLY ACRS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NE AS ASSOCD WARM
FRONT LIFTS NWD THRU THE MID ATLC REGION TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND.
TRAILING PORTION OF ASSOCD COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THROUGH
SRN OH VALLEY AS MAIN HEIGHT FALLS LIFT INTO CANADA LEADING WHICH
WILL ALLOW DEEP LAYERED SLWLY FLOW WITH PWS OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES TO
FOCUS ALONG THE BNDRY TUES NIGHT.  THE HIGH PWS ALONG WITH 85H
WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL PROVIDE STRONG MSTR FLUX
ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT...AND LIKELY LEADING TO SOME
HEAVY RAINS FROM PARTS OF AR NEWD INTO THE CNTL APLCNS.  WHILE
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LACKING..THE DEEP LAYERED SWLY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO POTENTIAL TRAINING/REPEAT CELL ACTIVITY. EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2+ INCHES MOST OF WHICH WILL FALL TUES NIGHT COULD
APCH OR EVEN EXCEED THE LOWER FF GUIDANCE VALUES IN PLACE FROM KY
EWD INTO THE MTNS OF WV/SW PA.

SULLIVAN


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