Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FOUS30 KWBC 310056
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
855 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

...VALID 01Z SUN MAY 31 2015 - 12Z SUN MAY 31 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SSE AOH GEZ BMG 15 NE HUF 15 SSW LAF 15 SE SBN YIP
10 SE CWPS 15 ESE DKK 30 WNW ELZ BFD CAK 20 SSE AOH.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
LCH 10 SE LBX 15 NW PSX 30 W SGR 15 SE UTS 10 SW JAS LCH.





...MID MS VALLEY/MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...

HAVE TRIMMED WRN PORTION OF EARLIER OUTLOOK AREA WHERE PCPN HAS
TRANSITIONED TO MORE STRATIFORM/LONGER DURATION RAIN THREAT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WHILE EXPANDING SLIGHT RISK EWD INTO NW
PA/SW NY WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYERED WSW
OR SW FLOW WILL BECOME BETTER ALIGNED DURING AT LEAST THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PD FAVORING PSBL REPEAT CELLS.  PWS ARE FAIRLY HIGH WITH
AXIS OF 1.75 INCHES POOLED ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF SLOW SWD
SINKING COLD FRONT ACRS THE ERN GT LAKES AND IN ADVANCE OF MCV
AIDED SFC WAVE RIDING NEWD INTO THE NRN OH VALLEY REGION
OVERNIGHT.  BASED ON SOME OF THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR...COULD PSBLY SEE SOME LOCAL 2 TO 3 INCH RAINS WHERE STGR
REPEAT CONVECTION OCCURS WITH GENL STORM MOTION EXPECTED TO THE
ENE.   CURRENT RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS AS WELL AS LOWER FFG VALUES
TO THE EAST...SUPPORT EXPANSION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA EWD INTO WRN
NY/NW PA.  REF MPD #160 VALID UNTIL 0203Z.


...EAST TEXAS...

STG MERGER OF SE SINKING CONVECTION ACRS SRN TX WITH SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS ASSOCD UPR TROF
CONTINUES TO DROP SEWD ACRS THE SRN PLAINS AND MOST OF AFTN CAPE
BECOMES EXHAUSTED.  IN THE MEANTIME...ONGOING SLOW MOVING ACTIVITY
ALONG THE TX COAST COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME VERY HEAVY SHORT
TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...BEFORE WEAKENING OR
SHIFTING EWD OFF THE COAST AS BETTER UPR DIFFLUENCE SHIFTS EWD.
FOR THIS REASON HAVE UPGRADE AREA TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.


...LA/AR...
SOME STORMS MAY TEND TO BUILD NEWD INTO NRN LA/SRN MS WITH
EVOLVING MID/UPR TROF OVERNIGHT..
BUT AT THIS TIME INFLOW DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENTLY STG TO
SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT...THOUGH THE HRRR
DOES SUGGEST POTNL FOR ISOLD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES
OR SO WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
ASSOCD COLD FRONT.  FOR THIS REASON...EXPECT FLASH FLOODING RISK
TO BECOME MORE ISOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

SULLIVAN


$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.