Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 240823
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
422 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

...VALID 12Z WED AUG 24 2016 - 12Z THU AUG 25 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SE SFY RAC 20 ESE AMN CTZR 20 ESE CWAJ 10 S CLE 15 WNW OSU
DAY 15 ENE OLY 15 NNE BLV 30 ESE DMO 25 SE WLD 15 SSE END
20 ESE CSM 20 SSE CDS 10 WNW BPG 45 WSW 6R6 95 S MRF 50 WSW MRF
30 NW PEQ 15 WNW HOB 20 WNW AMA 35 N BGD LBL 35 WSW GCK
50 NNW GCK 35 W HLC 25 E LNK 20 E CID 10 SE SFY.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ENE AAO 10 NW P28 30 ESE DDC 20 NE DDC 30 SW HYS 15 NNW RSL
20 W CNK 15 SSE SDA 10 ESE FFL 15 E MPZ C75 20 ESE PNT 10 NE DNV
10 NE PRG 10 NE MTO 20 SW TAZ 25 SSW PPQ 25 NNW COU 30 SSE LXT
10 WSW UKL 20 ENE AAO.


PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS---LOWER MO VALLEY--MID MS VALLEY
INTO THE MID WEST

A FAIRLY LARGE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL REGION DEPICTED THIS
PERIOD IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO LIE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY
AND MID MS VALLEY AREA.  MOIST WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY---PW VALUES 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN---ALONG WITH ENHANCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVES MOVING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION---WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY FROM AROUND 0000 UTC THU TO 1200 UTC THU---THERE IS
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE EXACT AXIS OF THIS MAX PRECIP TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO THIS AXIS.  UNFORESEEN MESOSCALE
INTERACTIONS WITH THIS EXPECTED ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT MAY GREATLY AFFECT PRECIP DISTRIBUTION AWAY FROM THE
SOLUTIONS OFFERED IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  THE CURRENT EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND LOWER
MO VALLEY IS AN EXAMPLE OF THIS---WITH LAST NIGHTS GUIDANCE NOT
SHOWING GREAT SKILL WITH THE DETAILS ALTHOUGH THERE WAS AGREEMENT
ON THE OVERALL HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  THE INCREASINGLY WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY IN THE 0000
TO 1200 UTC THU TIME PERIOD WILL SUPPORT TRAINING POTENTIAL ALONG
THE FRONT FROM IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST KS---FAR
SOUTHEAST NE---FAR SOUTHERN IA---NORTHERN MO---NORTH CENTRAL IL
INTO NORTHERN IN.  IN AREAS OF TRAINING--ISOLATED 3-5"+ AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE

SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE RECENT
PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  MOIST SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW---WITH UVV ENHANCEMENTS IN THIS MOISTURE AXIS FROM
SHORTWAVES IN THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT---WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION.  DETAILS WITH THIS
EXPECTED CONVECTION REMAIN LOW---BUT GREATER FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES.


ORAVEC
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