Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 130738
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 AM EST SAT JAN 13 2018

...VALID 12Z SAT JAN 13 2018 - 12Z SUN JAN 14 2018...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SSE BHB 25 SE RKD 15 S RKD 10 WNW RKD BGR 40 SE MLT
25 N CWSS 30 NE CWSS CWPE 10 ENE CXGM.


...DOWNEAST MAINE...

THE LARGE-SCALE WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SCOOT NORTHEAST
TODAY, AS THE FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND THE SURFACE TRACKS OFF THE MAINE COAST AND ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA. THE ELONGATED DEEP-LAYER FETCH OVER THE GULF STREAM
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A ROBUST WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB), WITH THE
HIGHLY-ANOMALOUS PW ADVECTION AND 850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX
PERSISTING ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND EARLY. THIS AXIS WILL WILL
SHIFT EAST BY LATE MORNING, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A ROUGHLY 3 HOUR
WINDOW IN THE NEW DAY 1 PERIOD (FROM 12-15 UTC) WHERE, PRIOR TO
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ADDITIONAL 3 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
EXCEED ANOTHER INCH PER THE LATEST HREF PROBABILITIES. GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT MOIST SOILS AND CURRENT FFG VALUES (ISOLATED AREAS WITH
FFGs OF 1 TO <1.5" IN 3 HOURS), WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT)
THROUGH MID-MORNING.

HURLEY
$$





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