Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FOUS30 KWBC 231901
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

...VALID 18Z TUE DEC 23 2014 - 00Z THU DEC 25 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 N BTR 20 S JAN 40 SW GTR GTR 30 ENE CBM 35 WNW BHM 20 SW EET
25 SSW ANB 15 N VPC RHP 25 N AVL 10 NNE MRN 10 W IPJ 35 WSW UZA
25 NNW CUB CUB 30 SW OGB LHW 30 NW VQQ 15 SW CTY 65 SW AAF
10 ESE KMIS 15 NNE AXO 20 NNE 7R3 10 N BTR.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 ESE AAF 30 SW PAM 20 SSE NPA 15 NNW PNS 30 NNE CEW 25 NE 11J
40 SSW EZM 15 NW DQH 25 S DQH 25 SSE VLD 15 SSW 40J 35 ESE AAF.


MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.  HAVE KEPT THE
SLIGHT TO MDT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS FROM PARTS OF SERN LA/SRN MS
EWD ACRS THE FL PANHANDLE AND NWD INTO THE SRN APLCNS.  THE
EVOLUTION OF THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS PERIOD.   STRONG
UPPER JET ENERGY DIVING TOWARD THE BASE OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROF OVER TX WILL SUPPORT A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE INFLUX OF DEEP TROPICAL-LIKE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING
LOW COUPLED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE WARM SECTOR THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT..WITH HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE BANDS LIKELY ORGANIZING INTO A MORE SQUALL LINE TYPE
FEATURE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS
TO PUSH EEASTWARD.  WITHIN THE AREA OF HEAVIER RAINS..EXPECT
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES..WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS WHERE TRAINING OCCURS.

TERRY

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.