Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 170747
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
347 AM EDT WED MAY 17 2017

...VALID 12Z WED MAY 17 2017 - 12Z THU MAY 18 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 E PIN BYG 10 SSW SHR 15 W SHR 25 WNW SHR 40 WNW SHR 45 N GEY
40 SSE BIL 30 SSE BIL 35 S BIL 45 SSW BIL 50 NNW COD 45 ESE LVM
15 ENE LVM 30 SW 3HT 50 W 3HT 35 ENE HLN 20 NE HLN 30 N HLN
30 SSW CTB 15 SSW CXDB CTB GTF 40 SSE GFA 15 NNE 3HT 35 N BIL
35 N SHR 20 E PIN.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SE CYLD 25 NE ANJ 10 NE ANJ 30 SSE ESC 20 N GRB 20 WSW MSN
20 SE DBQ 10 SE VTI 15 SW MIW 30 N CSQ 25 NNW CSQ RDK 25 WSW AFK
25 S JYR 15 SW HDE 25 ENE MCK 15 N LXN 10 ENE ODX 30 WNW BVN
20 ESE ONL 35 N ONL 20 E 9V9 25 W ATY 15 SW 8D3 10 N PKD
30 S CWCH 30 N CYTJ.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SSE HZX SUW 25 ESE BFW 45 SE GNA P59 70 ESE P59 45 ENE SAW
20 NW ESC 25 NW MNM AIG 10 E MFI 20 NNE ONA AUM 20 SSE FRM SUX
30 WNW TQE 15 WNW OLU 25 W OFK 30 SSW YKN 15 NW BKX 15 W DXX GHW
10 SSE HZX.


...NE NEBRASKA NEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN/CNTL MN..NRN WI..U.P. OF MI...

WITH THE GRADUAL EVOLUTION OF A MID/UPR LEVEL LOW OVER THE CNTL
PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS PD...A WELL ORGANIZED SWATH
OF MDT TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE EVOLVING COMMA HEAD/WARM
CONVEYOR BELT BAND FROM ERN NEB NEWD INTO THE U.P. OF MI WITH
MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN BANDING DETAILS BOTH NORTH OF
THE ASSOCD WARM FRONT AND IN THE EXPECTED WARM SECTOR JUST AHEAD
OF THE LOW AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT.  FOR MOST OF THIS
REGION..WIDESPREAD 1 TO 1.5"+ AMOUNTS FROM NE NEB INTO SRN MN..NRN
WI..AND THE U.P OF MI.  WITHIN THIS AREA..LOCALLY HIER AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY ESPECIALLY WED AFTN/EVENING FROM SRN MN INTO NRN WI AND THE
U.P. OF MI WHERE TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE PSBL ALONG
VERY SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT.  SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/CAPE IS
EXPECTED TO DVLP WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SUPPORT SOME STG CONVECTION AND WITH PWS NEAR
1.5"...HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL BE MORE LIKELY ACRS THIS AREA LEADING
TO POTNL RUNOFF ISSUES ESPECIALLY GIVEN RECENT MDT TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THIS AREA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

...MT..NRN WY...

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT HERE IN DROPPING
ANONYMOUSLY DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW SEWD WITH CENTROID NEAR THE
WY/UT/CO REGION BY THUR MORNG.  MODELS SHOW A VERY SLOW MOVING
OCCLUDED FRONT/TROWAL SETUP ACRS WITH THE FOOTHILLS OF THE NRN
ROCKIES THAT BASICALLY REMAINS ANCHORED FOR 12 HOURS OR MORE AS
THE MID LEVEL LOW ESSENTIALLY TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
AREA LEADING TO A STG DEFORMATION AREA AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM
THE WRN CO MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS SEWD INTO THE BIG HORNS AND
ADJACENT HI PLAINS OF ERN WY/NRN CO BY THE END OF THE PD.  A
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO HEAVY MTN SNOWS ARE LIKELY ACRS MUCH OF
THE HIER ELEVS ACRS THIS AREA..WHILE IN THE LOWER ELEVS...THE
COMBINATION OF LONGER DURATION MDT TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
SNOW MELT COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLD RUNOFF ISSUES..ESPECIALLY NEAR
STREAMS/RIVERS ALREADY HI FROM SNOW MELT.

SULLIVAN
$$





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