Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 131732
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
132 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

...VALID 18Z SUN APR 13 2014 - 00Z TUE APR 15 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 ESE APN 20 NE OSC 25 NE GRR 10 WSW BIV ORD VYS 30 SSE IRK
25 NW SZL 25 WSW EMP 25 SE JYR ADU 15 WSW PDC OVS 15 WNW MTW
15 NW TVC 25 NNE GLR 10 ENE PZQ 30 ESE APN.


PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY INTO LOWER MI

A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS MAINTAINED FROM FAR NORTHEAST
MO---NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN IA---NORTHERN
IL---SOUTHEAST WI INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE L.P. OF
MI---ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THIS AREA.  ONLY SOME SMALL CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK---WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO ALL
FORECAST HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE
AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY.  THE NEXT ROUND OF
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO FIRE  ALONG
AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM EASTERN KS---SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA---FAR NORTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IA.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS PUSHES EASTWARD TODAY...BACKING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
 AHEAD OF IT---LEADING TO STRENGTHENING OF SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW INTO THIS BOUNDARY.  THIS WILL SUPPORT THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY  PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY FOR POINTS FARTHER
NORTHEASTWARD.  THE COMBINATION OF THE INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION
LAST NIGHT---THAT LOWERED FFG VALUES ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
FRONT---AND CURRENT AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POTENTIAL IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT---WILL CONTINUE TO THREAT OF
RUNOFF ISSUES ACROSS THE THREAT AREAS.  SHORT TERM RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1-1.5"+ AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2-4"+ POSSIBLE WHERE
REPEAT CONVECTION OCCURS,

ORAVEC
$$




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