Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FOUS30 KWBC 130105
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
905 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

...VALID 03Z SUN APR 13 2014 - 00Z MON APR 14 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
UIN 50 NNE DMO 10 ESE OJC 25 SSW LWC 10 WNW FOE 30 NW TOP
35 ENE CNK 20 E HJH 10 NW BIE 15 SSW MLE DNS 15 SW VOK
10 SSE GRB 15 ESE PZQ 25 E CXCY 20 ESE CYVV 15 E CWGD PHN RMY
10 ESE LOT PIA UIN.


03Z UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK OR REASONING.  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED DURING SUN AS MAIN MID/UPR FORCING FROM
SRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY EJECTS NEWD ACRS THE OUTLOOK AREA.  THE
COMBO OF THIS FORCING AND INCREASING MSTR FLUX..ALONG WITH UPR
FLOW BECOMING ALIGNED WITH SFC BNDRY SUGGESTS THE POTNL FOR A
PERIOD OF TRAINING AND ENHANCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT
SUN..ESPECIALLY ACRS PARTS OF NE KS/NRN MO INTO CNTL/ERN IA/NW
IL/SRN WI.  SULLIVAN      PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY---MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY INTO LOWER MI

THE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE INCREASING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STRENGTHENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO BECOME
STATIONARY AND STRETCH FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.  OVERALL
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE
NATION---WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN SEVERAL STREAMS--- WILL LEAD
TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY INTO
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THIS WILL INCREASING PW VALUES IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS FRONT---WITH PW ANOMALIES 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  OVERALL VERY FAVORABLE COUPLED UPPER JET DYNAMICS ALONG
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY/ANOMALOUS PW AXIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS PERIOD.  PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO COME IN SEVERAL WAVES---WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
LIKELY TO FORM IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER WI/MI
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS IA INTO
NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI 0000-1200 UTC SUNDAY.  THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION AFTER 120O
UTC SUN AS ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
OF 1"+ POSSIBLE---WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINS WITH EACH SHORTWAVE AFFECTING AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
FRONT.

ORAVEC
$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.