Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 290057
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
756 PM EST MON NOV 28 2016

...VALID 01Z TUE NOV 29 2016 - 12Z TUE NOV 29 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WSW CYSB 15 E CYZE SLH 10 SE ESC 20 W ESC 25 ENE LNL
25 WSW CMX 25 ENE CWDV 55 W CWYW.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 N HKS GTR 15 SSE BHM 20 SW ALX 10 WSW MGM 45 NW GZH
30 ESE HBG 10 NE HDC 15 WNW BTR 30 NNE LFT 25 SE ESF 15 N HKS.


LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY..LOWER TN VALLEY

A STG S/WV CURRENTLY MOVING ACRS THE LOWER MS VALLEY CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A WELL DEFINED SQ LN PUSHING RAPIDLY INTO CNTL TN SWD INTO
NRN AL AND ERN MS.   THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO WORK OFF A RIBBON OF
1.50 TO NEAR 1.75 INCH PWS AND BETWEEN 60 AND 70kt 85H SOUTHERLY
FLOW WHICH COMBINED WITH STG UPPER SUPPORT HAS YIELDED SOME LOCAL
1 TO 2+ INCH RAINS IN AN HOUR OR TWO DESPITE LACK OF INSTABILITY
ESPECIALLY FROM NRN MS/AL NWD.  MODELS SHOW S/WV OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY ACCELERATING RAPIDLY NEWD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW NRN PORTION OF THE LINE TO PUSH
RAPIDLY EWD INTO THE SRN APLCNS WHILE SRN PORTION OF LINE MOVES A
BIT SLOWER ACRS SRN AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE BY MRNG. HI RES
MODELS HAVE BEEN LAGGING BEHIND THE MORE RAPID EWD ACCELERATION OF
THE LINE.  UPPER DYNAMICS ARE FCST TO WEAK OVERNIGHT BUT PWS AND
INFLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS.  HOWEVER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING
INTO A REGION WITH VERY HIGH EXISTING FF GUIDANCE VALUES...AOA 4
INCHES IN 3 HOURS...AND AS A RESULT ANY RUNOFF THREAT FROM HEAVY
RAIN ACRS THESE AREAS WILL BE VERY LOW.

ORAVEC/SULLIVAN


$$




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