Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 230210
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
910 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

...VALID 03Z FRI JAN 23 2015 - 00Z SAT JAN 24 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


... CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL EXPAND THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A FAIRLY LARGE
SWATH OF 1 TO 2 PLUS INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED...AS THE AMPLIFIED
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE ARKLATEX BY 00Z SAT
WHILE A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE GULF AND LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
THE FL PANHANDLE.  A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
PATTERN..ALONG WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM THE JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH..AND 40-50+ KT 850 MB SOUTHERLY INFLOW FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO..WILL SUPPORT THE WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL EVENT..WITH HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED.  DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LACKING...ESPECIALLY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
GULF COAST...AS MODEL MUCAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 200-600 J/KG FROM
ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO SOUTHERN AL/GA.

FOR MOST OF THIS REGION...THE EXISTING HIGH FFG VALUES (3-4" IN 3
HRS AND 4-5" IN 6 HRS) WOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THREAT...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SHORT-TERM RUNOFF ISSUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
LA/MS/AL/GA AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE...GIVEN THE INCREASING
(THOUGH STILL MARGINAL) CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO FRI.

TERRY
$$




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