Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 190829
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
328 AM EST SUN FEB 19 2017

...VALID 12Z SUN FEB 19 2017 - 12Z MON FEB 20 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ESE 2R8 20 ESE NQI 20 NNW BKS 40 NW ALI 40 E COT 25 SSW SSF
15 N SAT 20 S BMQ 10 W GRK 15 WNW 05F 20 E 7F9 15 WSW SEP
30 SSW RPH RPH 35 NW 1F9 35 SSE SPS 20 ESE DUC 15 SSW PVJ ADM
15 SE 1F0 15 NNW GYI GYI 10 E GYI 10 N GVT 20 SSE GVT 20 NW PSN
PSN 20 NNW UTS 10 NW DWH 15 NNE SGR 10 WSW LVJ 20 ESE LBX
15 S KGVX.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
105 WSW CEC 80 WNW CEC 75 NW CEC 45 SSW OTH 40 WSW SXT
35 WSW SXT 30 ENE CEC 40 ENE ACV 20 WNW O54 O54 25 NE O54
30 NNE RDD 25 ENE RDD 25 ENE CIC 25 NE OVE BLU 15 SSE BLU
45 S TVL 55 SSW TVL 45 NE MOD 15 S AUN 10 SSW AUN CIC RDD
20 S O54 40 SSW O54 45 NNE UKI 35 NE UKI 15 WSW VCB CCR
15 NNE WVI 30 SSE SNS 25 WNW 87Q 45 W 87Q 70 SW MRY 90 SW MRY.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SSE 11R 10 NNW 5R5 10 S PSX 20 SSW PKV 10 WSW RKP CRP RBO
15 NNE ALI 35 N ALI 45 SSE SSF 30 SE BAZ 30 SW 3T5 10 ESE 62H
10 NNW CLL 15 NE 11R 15 ENE 11R 25 SSE 11R.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 W O87 40 NW O87 35 SSW ACV 25 NNE O87 40 N UKI 15 NE UKI
20 WSW APC 20 NW WVI 45 WNW MRY 50 SW SFO 65 WSW SFO 70 WSW STS.


...SRN PLAINS...

WITH THE APCH OF SRN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASE IN MSTR FROM
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SRN PLAINS...SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FROM SRN TX NWD INTO OK ON SUN...MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVE
AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. ACTIVITY IS SLATED TO SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE/REFIRE LATER SUN INTO MONDAY ACROSS OK AND ESPECIALLY TX
WITH STEADY HEIGHT FALLS WITH CONTINUED TROUGH APPROACH ALOFT AND
LEAD DEEP LAYERED SRLY FLOW. DEEPENING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CELL TRAINING COULD SUPPORT SOME LOCAL 2-3"
RAINS/SEVERAL HRS AND ASSOCIATED RUNOFF ISSUES...ESPECIALLY OVER
S-CENTRAL/CENTRAL COASTAL TX IN DEEPEST MOISTURE.

...CALIFORNIA/PAC NW...

A POTENT ERN PACIFIC STORM TRACK WILL MEANWHILE RELOAD UPSTREAM
WITH AN EMPHASIS BACK INTO THE PAC NW AND N-CENTRAL CA. LEAD
SHORTWAVE PUSH ACROSS THE PAC NW/NWRN US SUN WILL ACT TO SPREAD
MOISTURE/WAA/PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...BUT A BIGGER MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC SURGE WILL ACCOMPANY ADDITIONAL ERN PAFICIC ENERGY
APPROACH LATTER PERIOD. SUBSEQUENT TROUGH APPRAOCH SHOULD ACT TO
NOSE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASINGLY TOWARD THE NRN CA COAST AND
SPREAD OVER THE N-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE LEADING TO THE
BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF HEAVY PCPN FOR THE REGION.
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS/SPREAD INTO SW OREGON AND NRN AND
CENTRAL CA AND CONTINUE INTO DAY2 WITH GUIDANCE PRECIPITATBLE
WATER ANOMALIES INCREASING UPWARDS TO 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL THAT SEEM REASONABLE CONSIDERING CURRENT WELL DEFINED
SATELLITE SIGNATURE OFFSHORE/JET SUPPORT. RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD RUNOFF ISSUES.

SCHICHTEL
$$




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