Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 250253
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1052 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

...VALID 0252Z THU AUG 25 2016 - 12Z THU AUG 25 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
75 NNE MMCU 55 NNW MRF 25 SSE CVN 15 SSE CVN 20 E SPD 35 SE HDE
20 ENE MIW 20 WNW GRR 10 NNE MTC 10 SW HZY PHD LHQ 35 SSW BAK
BLV 10 NW JLN 20 N CHK 70 SW DRT.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SW COU 20 ENE WDG EMP 20 ESE STJ FSW 20 SE C09 30 NNE DNV
15 SSE TIP 30 NNE ALN 15 SW COU.


CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY/
MID MS VALLEY/MIDWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A FAIRLY LARGE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL REGION DEPICTED THIS
PERIOD IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO LIE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY
AND MID MS VALLEY AREA.  MOIST WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY---PW VALUES 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN---ALONG WITH ENHANCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVES MOVING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION---WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
FROM AROUND 0000 UTC THU TO 1200 UTC THU, AND THE EXPECTED
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO MATERIALIZE, THOUGH SOMEWHAT SOUTHEAST OF
WHAT CONTINUITY EXPECTED.  THE INCREASINGLY WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY IN THE 0000 TO 1200 UTC THU
TIME PERIOD WILL SUPPORT TRAINING POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT FROM
IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN KS, NORTHERN MO, NORTH CENTRAL IL, AND
PORTIONS OF IN.  IN AREAS OF TRAINING--ISOLATED 3-5"+ AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.  A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WAS MADE IN THIS AREA PER
RADAR TRENDS.


SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE RECENT
PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  MOIST SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW---WITH UVV ENHANCEMENTS IN THIS MOISTURE AXIS FROM
SHORTWAVES IN THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT---WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION.  DETAILS WITH THIS
EXPECTED CONVECTION REMAIN LOW---BUT GREATER FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES.

ROTH/ORAVEC/SULLIVAN
$$





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