Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 011853
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
153 PM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

...VALID 18Z SUN MAR 01 2015 - 00Z TUE MAR 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 ENE BLH 30 NNE BLH 15 SSE EED 10 SSW IFP IFP 20 N IGM
20 ENE IGM 35 ESE IGM 45 WNW PRC 10 SW PRC 15 S PRC 35 SSW PRC
40 NNW LUF 45 WNW LUF 50 WNW GBN 35 E YUM 20 SSW NYL 15 WSW NYL
20 SSE BLH 10 ENE BLH.


FAR EASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA

ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FROM FAR EASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA.  THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW SOUTHWARD
PUSH OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES---2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---WILL CONTINUE
TO BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW ACROSS FAR
EASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHWEST---SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES REGION.  STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THIS
ANOMALOUS PW AXIS AND THE OVERALL SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW
WILL SUPPORT SLOW MOVING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FAR EASTERN
CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST AZ.  ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE
FROM ISOLATED SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF .50-1"+ AND
ISOLATED TOTALS THIS PERIOD OF 1-3"+.

ORAVEC
$$





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