Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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854
FOUS30 KWBC 161443
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1042 AM EDT MON OCT 16 2017

...VALID 15Z MON OCT 16 2017 - 12Z TUE OCT 17 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 ENE SGJ 25 SSE SGJ 40 SSW SGJ 20 NNE GNV 30 NNW JAX SAV
10 N NBC 30 SSW CHS 35 ESE HXD.


...SOUTHEAST COAST...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TO ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC-SOUTHEAST COAST BY 12Z TUE.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE GA/NORTHEAST FL COASTS.  AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR CELL
TRAINING AND THUS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...CAPITALIZING ON THE LINGERING
DIURNAL INSTABILITY (MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG). UTILIZING A
MULTI-MODEL BLEND WITH THE QPF...WITH THE HIGH-RES CAMS
(ESPECIALLY THE NBM AND HREF MEAN)...MAXIMUM AREAL-AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.75-1.50" ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM NORTHEAST FL TO SOUTHERN SC. SPOTTY 2-3+"
TOTALS ARE LIKELY HOWEVER PER THE VARIOUS HIGH-RES WRFs. GIVEN
THAT THESE AMOUNTS COULD FALL WITHIN A 3 HOUR PERIOD...ALONG WITH
THE CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE ANALYSIS FROM THE NATIONAL WATER
MODEL...THE CURRENT 1-3 HOURLY FFG...AND THE LATEST SSEO 40KM
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF QPF>FFG EXCEEDANCE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON (TOWARD 00Z)...WE WILL INCLUDE A NARROW "MARGINAL" RISK
AREA IN THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ERO).

HURLEY/PETERSEN
$$





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