Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 230055
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
854 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

...VALID 01Z TUE AUG 23 2016 - 12Z TUE AUG 23 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
CEW MOB 15 W HBG 35 WSW MEI 45 SE NMM CEW.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NE BIH 40 WNW MMH 10 NNW BLU 60 E RDD 45 ESE AAT 15 WSW WMC
70 W P68 25 NE BIH.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 N BCE 35 ESE PGA 50 SSE FLG 25 NW LUF 45 ENE BLH 25 NNW NXP
10 WSW DRA 65 NNE DRA 50 S ELY 40 NNW MLF 45 ENE MLF 50 N BCE.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 ESE RKR 15 S LBR 10 SSE HQZ 15 ESE SJT 40 S ODO 35 ESE LBB
15 WNW CSM 15 NE PNC 10 WNW GMJ 15 ESE RKR.


SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MARGINAL RISK AREAS COVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT
BASIN.  BROAD UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS THIS PERIOD FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA--INTO THE SOUTHWEST---SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN---SOUTHERN
TO CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THERE IS EVIDENCE IN RECENT SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NV,
WITH VAD WIND PROFILES SHOWING A 700 HPA CIRCULATION NEAR THE
BORDER OF SOUTHERN NV AND NORTHWEST AZ.  UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAXIMA
ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH PRECIPITABLE ANOMALIES OF
1-2 SIGMAS ABOVE THE NORM FOR LATE AUGUST TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS.  AREAL AVERAGE LIGHT TO
MODERATE TOTALS ARE EXPECTED---WITH ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS
POSSIBLE---ALONG WITH A CONTINUATION OF A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2-4" RANGE WOULD
NOT BE A SURPRISE WHERE CELLS MERGE AND/OR TRAIN.  THUNDERSTORMS
IN THIS REGION SHOULD FADE BEYOND 03Z.


SOUTHERN PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO OK OVERNIGHT, WITH THE CORRESPONDING AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY MOVING IN TANDEM.  ONGOING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN PULSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXISTS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TX AT THIS TIME.  SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OK OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD ATTEMPT TO ORGANIZE.  ASCENT IS
TRIGGERED AS UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA DEVELOP WITHIN THE DIFLUENT
FLOW PATTERN.  MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THIS REGION---WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.


SOUTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONGREGATING AND SHRINKING IN SCALE
WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MS/AL.  WITH CELL
MERGERS EVIDENT, LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2-4" RANGE WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE.  THE RISK AREA IS SET AS MARGINAL AS LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS
WEAK AND CELLS APPEAR TO BE PULSE IN NATURE.  THE EXPECTATION IS
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AROUND 03Z.

ROTH/ORAVEC
$$




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